2024 Copa América final: Argentina-Colombia predictions

It’s here! After a grueling, entertaining and drama-filled month, Sunday night brings the final of the 2024 Copa America, as defending champions Argentina host Colombia in Miami. Which team will reign supreme? Will Argentina and Lionel Messi cruise to victory, or can Colombia shock them? (Game odds, per ESPNBET, point towards Argentina: they’re favored at -165 to Colombia’s +125.)

If Colombia are going to win, which players need to have a statement game? And what will Messi do at Hard Rock Stadium? ESPN’s Jeff Carlisle, Lizzy Becherano and Tim Vickery offer their predictions and expectations for Sunday’s final.

1. Who will win, and why will it be Argentina?

Carlisle: I don’t think it will be Argentina winning on Sunday! Obviously, Colombia were pushed to their physical limits against Uruguay, but manager Nestor Lorenzo also maximized his substitutions in the match. James Rodríguez came off after 62 minutes. Richard Ríos was stretchered off after 61 minutes but was seen dancing afterward, proving that winning does wonders for a player’s recuperative powers.

Yes, Argentina are formidable, but as the saying goes, steel sharpens steel, and Colombia will gain immense confidence from their win over Uruguay. Argentina still look like they haven’t had to get out of third gear, though Ecuador provided a scare. I think Colombia just shade this one.

Becherano: I actually think Colombia will be the first to overcome Argentina this tournament. La Albiceleste cruised through the group stage, really not getting tested until their quarterfinal clash against Ecuador. Lionel Scaloni’s side looked uncomfortable when facing an aggressive opponent, struggling to hold back an eager attack.

Argentina boast an extremely capable set of players, but the 2024 Copa America has yet to see a stellar, trademark performance by the group. Colombia, on the other hand, have seen each player rise to the occasion at different points of the tournament to stun the most difficult opponents. Rodriguez is channeling his form from the 2014 World Cup while Luis Díaz continues to triumph on the left. Should Lorenzo’s side capitalize on their momentum, Argentina will have a difficult time overcoming Colombia’s physicality and force.

Vickery: The worry from the Colombia point of view is how much they took out of themselves playing the semifinal for so long with 10 men, which applies more to Diaz than anyone else. This is clearly an important question given that they go to Miami with a day less to rest up, but if they can recharge their batteries, then I think Colombia are capable of doing it. The discipline of the central midfield trio will help close Argentina down, and the physicality of the strikers will cause problems, as will their strength from set pieces.

Time after time in knockout games, the Argentina defence has been known to collapse — it could have cost them in Qatar against France, Holland and Australia and here against Ecuador — and even Canada had two golden chances in the last five minutes. One day this will cost Argentina, and that day could be Sunday.

2. Which version of Messi will we see and what do you expect from him?

Carlisle: Messi’s usually razor-sharp finishing hasn’t been evident in this tournament, with his goal against Canada one of the great two-foot putts. But for Colombia, the scary part about that goal is that it can nudge Messi’s confidence just that little bit higher to get his shooting accuracy recalibrated.

The other part is that Messi has been getting into good spots from which to score. Yes, I realize this is the old adage of being concerned only if he isn’t getting chances, but you have to think that eventually if that trend continues those shots will begin to find the target. I expect that to come to pass. Then it will be up to Colombia keeper Camilo Vargas to do what he can to thwart a legend.

Becherano: Messi’s quality will continue to be evident on Sunday thanks to his unique understanding of the game, spatial awareness and ability to draw out defenders. Through the age and injuries, Messi has learned to adapt his style of play to fit the current state. The Argentine forward is capable of much more than we’ve seen this tournament, but Colombia should expect him to rise to the occasion.

Argentina’s ability to capitalize on emotions when searching for motivation cannot be taken lightly, and Messi is no different. With the criticism of recent performances and thoughts of his final Copa America, the No. 10 will be out in his newly adapted full force. He might not outrun defensive counterparts, but he needs only a minute to inspire the creation and buildup of what could be a deadly goal.

Vickery: We are watching the sunset of the god. What he does can still be brilliant, but he does less of it than he did in Qatar. Some were shocked that Scaloni left top scorer Lautaro Martínez out of the team for the semifinal, but it is easily explained, and it serves as a recognition from the coach that Messi is not far from the end at this level.

Someone has to do the hard running. Julián Álvarez can do that and also form an extra player in the midfield setup when Argentina aren’t in possession. It is very hard on Lautaro, but it is a consequence of Messi slowly losing the battle against time. It will be fascinating to see how Argentina seek to bring him into the game against the organised and physically imposing Colombians.

3. Which Colombia player needs to have a good game if they are to beat Argentina?

Carlisle: James Rodriguez is the clear candidate, especially given how deadly he has been from set pieces, though that won’t be enough for Argentina to stop him from the run of play. They’ll need to make sure they don’t concede set pieces in dangerous spots.

The defensive side of the ball will be just as critical. The centre-back tandem of Carlos Cuesta and Davinson Sánchez will need to be at their best to stop Messi and Julian Alvarez if Colombia are to come out on top.

Becherano: Naturally, all eyes will be on Rodriguez, and Lionel Scaloni should plan accordingly, but Camilo Vargas is set to face the biggest challenge on Sunday. Should he be able to retain a clean sheet while Argentina possess the ball, then Rodriguez, Luis Diaz and Jhon Córdoba can confidently play without the burden of needing to score a desperate late equalizer.

Vickery: Obviously Rodriguez, for the way he serves as a supply line for Diaz, and, perhaps most of all, for the excellent delivery of his set pieces.

4. OK, predictions time! Give us the final score and how the game will go!

Carlisle: I’m going for 2-0 Colombia, following a similar script to the Uruguay game (minus the red card). A Rodriguez set piece will put the Cafeteros ahead, with Cordoba icing it late.

Becherano: I hate to be redundant, but 2-1 Colombia. Impossible to think that Argentina won’t be able to find the back of the net after their Copa America run, but Colombia will be overpowering.

Vickery: Always make your predictions after the event! But if pushed I’m going for Colombia 2-1, possibly with a late surge. One a header from a set piece, the other from Diaz on the break.