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Three weeks into the 2024 college football season, the landscape for both the Heisman Trophy and the national championship race is starting to take shape. Miami quarterback Cam Ward made a huge jump to the top, while Texas quarterback Arch Manning entered the conversation.
The expanded 12-team playoff format has put more teams in contention, with multiple programs like Alabama seeing its odds improve. As we enter Week 4, ESPN BET’s odds reflect both early season performance and the likelihood of teams making a playoff run in the new format.
All odds are correct as of timestamp. Visit ESPN BET for the latest odds.
Cam Ward, QB, Miami Hurricanes: +550
Last week: +800
Ward has emerged as the new favorite to win the Heisman after 3 weeks. His dominance in his first three games with Miami has been historic, becoming the first quarterback in Hurricanes history to start a season with three consecutive 300-yard performances. Ward’s impressive stats include: 1,035 yards, 11 touchdowns and just one interception with a 73% completion rate.
At this pace, Ward is on track to break several school records. His performance has drawn national attention, with analysts and fans already projecting him as a top NFL draft prospect.
Miami’s success is closely tied to Ward’s performance, with the team now considered the favorite to win the ACC (+125) and potentially make the College Football Playoff (-200). This increased visibility will likely keep Ward in the national spotlight throughout the season, further strengthening his Heisman candidacy.
Quinn Ewers, QB, Texas Longhorns, (+1800)
Last week: (+500)
Ewers, the betting favorite after Week 2, had his Heisman chances cut short after suffering an injury early in the Longhorns’ win over UTSA. Ewers sustained an abdominal strain in the second quarter, forcing him out of the game and potentially sidelining him for at least the next week.
Arch Manning, QB, Texas Longhorns (+1600)
Last week: 150-1
Manning saw his Heisman odds skyrocket after an impressive showing in relief of the injured Ewers. His performance against UTSA (223 passing yards, four touchdowns and a 67-yard rushing score) propelled Manning into the Heisman conversation.
The nephew of NFL legends Peyton and Eli Manning carries significant name recognition which, combined with his acting, explains Arch’s dramatic odds improvement.
He sees extended playing time in the Longhorns’ upcoming game against Wool Monroe, and with Years out, the matchup presents the perfect opportunity for Manning to further improve his stats and strengthen his Heisman case.
bet to consider
Ashton Jeanty, RB, Boise State Broncos: +2200
Last week: +3500
I mentioned Genty at 35-1 last week. Despite Boise State’s bye week, Jeanty’s Heisman odds have improved significantly. His remarkable start to the season put him on pace to challenge Barry Sanders’ historic 1988 record.
If Genty maintains his current pace, he will finish the season with 2,754 rushing yards and 54 touchdowns, breaking Sanders’ marks (2,628, 37). After just two games, Genty’s stats are impressive: 459 yards, nine touchdowns and an incredible 10.2 yards per carry.
Jeanty faces an 0-2 FCS squad Portland State, presenting an opportunity to further pad his stats. However, as a group of 5 players, Jeanty faces significant challenges in the Heisman race. The last G5 player to win the Heisman was in 1963.
Ginty’s rapid odds movement (+3500 to +2200) reflects growing recognition of his exceptional performance. If he can maintain this momentum against stronger competition in future games, Genty could continue to climb the Heisman race despite the historic disadvantage faced by G5 players.
National Championship Odds
After 3 weeks of the 2024 college football season, the top three teams to win national championships according to ESPN BET have not changed with Georgia followed by Ohio State and Texas.
Tennessee’s playoff chances
Tennessee is going to be an interesting team to watch. Its odds to make the playoffs have changed dramatically: Last week I noted that it was +115 to make the playoffs. The current odds have them at -200. This change reflects changes to the original game forecast. After Week 2, Georgia had a 70% chance to beat Tennessee later this season. After 3 weeks, those odds dropped to 54%.
How to bet on Tennessee
While Tennessee will likely still be the underdog against Alabama and Georgia, the odds may be lower than previously expected. For those bullish on Tennessee’s prospects, a potentially more profitable strategy would be to back Tennessee as an underdog against Alabama and, if successful, turn those wins into an underdog bet against Georgia.
This approach could potentially yield better returns than the current -200 odds to make the playoffs.
The dramatic change in Tennessee’s playoff odds (from +115 to -200) underscores the volatility of college football predictions and the impact of key games on a team’s perceived chances. As the season progresses, these odds may fluctuate based on performance and the outcome of key matchups.
A bet to consider
Nebraska Cornhuskers +700 to make the playoffs
In late August, I made a social media post explaining my preseason love for the Cornhuskers.
Let’s ignore the Colorado Buffaloes hype for a second and focus on Nebraska. Their potential for a breakout season in 2024 was evident before the season even began. Key factors supporting this outlook include positive regression (by four points or less) from a 5-7 record in 2023, Matt Rule’s proven track record in developing talent, returning veteran talent on defense and a manageable schedule in the first half of the season. .
current performance
Nebraska’s strong start to the 2024 season is highlighted by several impressive statistics:
Dylan Raiola: 70%-plus completion percentage in each of his first three games (last achieved by Heisman winner Marcus Mariota in 2012)
Team Scoring: 100-plus points while allowing 20 or fewer through first three games (first time since 1999)
Challenges ahead
Nebraska will have two critical games that will test its playoff chances: Week 3 (3-0) against Illinois, then a road game in Week 4 at Indiana.
A win over Illinois could significantly boost Nebraska’s credibility as a playoff contender.
How to bet on Nebraska
Consider a moneyline rollover parley on Nebraska as the underdog in key games against Ohio State, USC and Iowa, offering attractive value while taking Nebraska to the playoffs at +700 odds.
This strategy could potentially yield better returns than outright playoff bets, especially if Nebraska exceeds expectations.
The coming weeks, especially games against Illinois and Indiana, will provide important insight into Nebraska’s true potential. A strong performance in these matchups could further improve the Cornhuskers’ playoff odds and validate their early-season success.
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