2024 MLB Betting – Five Stories to Watch After the Break

During the All-Star break, two baseball stars lead the MVP races, a rookie is vying for the Cy Young Award, and the American League Central has the best and worst teams to bet on so far this season. Here are five baseball betting stories from the break:

Judge, Ohtani lead MVP races, with Henderson, Harper in contention

Three-time MVP Aaron Judge and Shohei Otani are the favorites to win this season’s MLS and NL awards, respectively. Judge’s -325 odds and Otani’s -350 price on ESPN BET have implied odds of 76.47% and 77.78%, respectively, and both have been favorites to win since mid-June.

By the odds, there’s only one player in each league who can challenge Judge and/or Ohtani for the title. In the MLS, that’s rising star Gunnar Henderson, who opened the season with a +300 mark of 14-1, just outside the top six. In the Nationals, it’s two-time All-Star Bryce Harper, who went from opening the season with a 12-1 mark to +475. No other player is closer than 16-1.

Bettors and bookmakers are watching Paul Skinis.

Many bettors will be watching closely how the Pittsburgh Pirates handle rising star Paul Skinis in the second half. Skinis opened at 200-1 odds to win the National League Cy Young Award when he made his MLB debut in early May. He has gone 6-0 with 12.1 strikeouts per nine innings in his first 11 games, and he has entered the National League Cy Young Award race firmly in contention. As of Tuesday on ESPN BET, Skinis was +450 to win the award, behind Chris Sale (+125) and Zack Wheeler (+160), the unanimous favorites. There were more bets on Skinis winning the Cy Young than any other player on ESPN BET.

“Coming into the season, it was unclear whether the Pirates would allow the rookie to accumulate enough innings to factor into the award,” Patrick Gay, ESPN BET’s senior vice president and head of sports betting, said in an email. “During the first half of the year, they allowed him to pitch late in games, to the point where many were surprised when he was replaced after seven no-hitter innings last night. Additionally, no other National League player has proven worthy of the Cy Young Award yet.”

Cleveland’s Amazing Guards

The Guardians have been one of the biggest surprises of the first half of the MLB season, and that has translated into them being the most profitable team so far, up 13.75 units against the moneyline, according to ESPN BET, meaning a $100 bettor would be up $1,375. That pales in comparison to past seasons. The Guardians have the fewest units won at the All-Star break of any leader over the past four seasons, with the San Francisco Giants setting a high for that period at 24.18 in 2021.

Cleveland opened the season with a 60-1 record to win the World Series and then fell to 15-1.

Chicago White Sox Struggling

The Guardians certainly made money, but the best bet in baseball during the first half of the season was to take out the White Sox, who lost 33.95 units on the moneyline. That means if you bet $100 against the White Sox every game, you’d win about $3,200. That’s the most any team has lost on the moneyline at the All-Star break since the 2021 Arizona Diamondbacks, and no other team has lost more than $2,200 this season (the Miami Marlins).

The White Sox (27-71), who trail the Guardians by 32.5 games in the American League Central, were favored to win seven games this season, the fewest in the American League. Coming into the season, only three teams had more money betting on winning the American League than the White Sox at BetRivers sportsbooks.

profitable shooters

For bettors playing early-season pitching games, there’s no better bet than Trevor Williams, who led the Washington Nationals to a 9-2 record and earned 11.15 units in the games he started. The big caveat is that the 32-year-old has been sidelined since late May with an elbow injury, eliminating any chance of him regressing to average.

For pitchers who started at least 16 games, the top three in units gained were Aaron Nola (up 8.5 units), Shota Imanaga (8.45), and Simon Woods-Richardson (8.45).