2024 WNBA Playoffs: Aces-Liberty, Sun-Lynx Semifinals Prediction

Any surprises in the first round of the 2024 WNBA Playoffs? Try to win. The top four seeds advance to what should be two semifinal series, which begin Sunday.

The semifinals could have been filled with the excitement that the first round lacked with a 2-0 win in four games. The top-seeded New York Liberty will face the fourth-seeded Las Vegas Aces (3 p.m. ET, ABC) in a rematch of last season’s WNBA Finals. That game is set for Tuesday.

On Wednesday, the third-seeded Connecticut Sun advanced to the WNBA semifinals for the sixth straight season after eliminating the Indiana Fever.

Then Napheesa Collier scored 42 points to tie the WNBA playoff record as the second-seeded Minnesota Lynx beat the Phoenix Mercury in what may have been the final game of Mercury legend Diana Taurasi’s career.

The semifinals are between two WNBA champions and two non-champion teams. The Aces are two-time defending champions, while New York has never won a title.

The Lynx have won four titles — all during a seven-season stretch when Minnesota reached the finals six times. The Suns have made the finals four times, most recently in 2022, but have never won.

Four of the top five finishers in the MVP voting will compete in the semifinals: unanimous winner Aja Wilson of Las Vegas, second-place finisher Collier, third-place finisher Brianna Stewart of New York, and fifth-place finisher Alyssa Thomas of Connecticut.

Let’s take a look at the remaining five semi-final matches.

He plays

The Aces advance thanks to great performances from A’ja Wilson and Kelsey Plum.

A’ja Wilson and Kelsey Plum combined for 53 points as the Aces swept the Storm to advance to the semifinals of the WNBA playoffs.

Regular Season Series: New York won 3-0.

How did they get here: New York crushed Atlanta in the first round, with Sabrina Ionescu scoring 36 points in a crucial win on Tuesday. Las Vegas crushed Seattle, with A’ja Wilson (24 points, 13 rebounds), Kelsey Plum (29 points) and Chelsea Gray (9 assists).

How do they match: Wilson vs. Stewart is the showdown. The two stars have impressed in the playoffs since Stewart played in Seattle, winning five MVP awards between them. Wilson has been brilliant all season, averaging a career-high 26.9 points and 11.9 rebounds per game in the regular season and a WNBA record. Stewart has been no slouch, averaging 20.4 points and 8.5 rebounds per game. Not every superstar matchup offers a chance for the team’s best players to guard each other, but Wilson and Stewart will be going head-to-head, even if it’s not on every possession.

Beyond Stewart and Wilson, there are interesting matchups all over the court. New York went with a larger lineup against Atlanta, with rookie Leonie Fibich starting in place of veteran Courtney Vandersloot. The lineup gave the Liberty additional size and length on the perimeter. At 6-foot-4, Fibich is quick enough to stick with Jackie Young or Gray, and her length can disrupt perimeter passing lanes.

The big question for Vegas is who will guard Jonquil Jones and Stewart? Wilson can guard one, but she can’t guard both. Aces coach Becky Hammon said the Aces’ fifth-place spot is a game-changer. Kia Stokes started both games against Seattle and has the most familiarity with the current Aces lineup. She has enough power to counter Jones, but she’s a liability offensively. Vegas’ other options on the bench don’t quite solve that problem, though. Vegas certainly has a disadvantage up front — except for Wilson, of course — but can the Aces absorb that disparity and make up for it in the back? The answer to that question could determine the outcome of the series.

The New York Liberty and Las Vegas Aces will meet again in the WNBA Playoffs 👀 @Andrea_Carter Gives her 4 keys to winning the 2023 WNBA Finals rematch 🔑 pic.twitter.com/LwQgrxVelM

— espnw (@espnW) September 25, 2024

What is the thing that will greatly affect the series? Jones has averaged 19.7 points and 11 rebounds in the Liberty’s three games against the Aces this season, five points and two rebounds below her regular-season average. In the first regular-season game, Jones scored 34 points. In the second, she grabbed 17 rebounds. In the third game, when Wilson did not play, Jones had just 15 points and eight rebounds. If she can play a few strong games, that could make a difference. Jones is a special player. If she plays like that, Vegas could have a problem.

New York will advance if: Vibich and Jones win their games, respectively. New York’s lineup presents unique challenges for Vegas. Young, a solid defender, can’t guard both Ionescu and Vibich. Plum gives up his size to each guard. Gray is not 6-foot-4. But someone has to guard Vibich. And up front, someone has to guard Jones. If the Liberty can execute those contrasts and capitalize on them, New York will return to the Finals for another shot at its first title.

Las Vegas will advance if: The back line is playing at the level it can on both ends of the court. Wilson has proven throughout the season that she can perform at an elite level, but the Aces have been inconsistent. Hammon referred to Plum, Gray and Young as the Aces’ “separators.” When that trio is scoring shots and successfully pressing the perimeter, Vegas is tough to beat. Katie Barnes

He plays

Sabrina Ionescu’s historic night sends Liberty into semifinals

Sabrina Ionescu became the second player to score 35 points and dish out 5 assists in a crucial Liberty win over the Dream.

Who will win the series?

Andrea Adelson: Aces in 5
Katie Barnes: Aces in 5
Charlie Cream: freedom in 4
Sean Hurd: Aces in 5
Myron Medcalf: Aces in 5
Kevin Belton: freedom in 5
Alexa Philippou: freedom in 5
Michael Voebel: Aces in 5

He plays

Alyssa Thomas leads the way as Sun eliminates Caitlin Clark and Pfeiffer

Caitlin Clark’s 25 points and nine assists weren’t enough to help the Suns beat the Fever and move on to face the Lynx in the semifinals.

Regular Season Series: Connecticut won 2-1.

How did they get here: The Suns blew out sixth-seeded Indiana 2-0 in the first round, led by veterans Alyssa Thomas and Dewanna Bonner. Thomas, who had a triple-double in Game 1, finished with 31 points, 26 assists and 15 rebounds. Bonner had 37 points and 14 rebounds. Mabryna Mabry, who the Lynx traded to in July, had 44 points and nine assists. The Lynx were the better team from seventh-seeded Phoenix, but Minnesota — especially Collier — was much better. She scored 38 points in the opener and lightly chided herself for missing two free throws in Wednesday’s 101-88 win.

Frankly, she would have scored 43 points if she had made one more free throw. But she made 14 of 20 from the field and 12 of 14 from the line. “I was just taking advantage of what the defense gave me, what my teammates gave me,” Collier said, with a masterful ability to downplay the situation.

How do they match: These two teams had the best defensive rating in the league during the regular season: the Suns at 94.1 and the Lynx at 94.8. They were also the best at defending the three-point line: Minnesota held its opponents to 30.1 percent shooting from behind the arc, and Connecticut to 31.3 percent.

All three regular-season games were close. Connecticut won Game 1 in overtime, 83-82, on May 23. The Suns won Game 2, 78-73, on July 4. Minnesota won Game 1, 78-76, on September 17.

Both teams also have experienced coaches: Cheryl Reeve led the Lynx to all four titles, and Stephanie White was an assistant coach for the Suns when Indiana won its title in 2012 and a head coach when the Fever last reached the WNBA Finals in 2015. Indiana lost to Reeve and the Lynx that year in five games. White left the WNBA after 2016 to coach Vanderbilt, but returned last year with the Suns.

What is the thing that will greatly affect the series? It may seem simple, but which defense will be the best? When both are very good, it means strength versus strength.

The two teams’ offensive ratings are also nearly identical: the Lynx are fourth with 102.8 while the Suns are fifth with 102.3.

In the first round, Collier proved to be an unguardable player, so what will the Suns plan for her? Collier scored 31 points in the first game of the season for the Suns and 25 points in the third round. In the second game, she scored just 9 points.

Thomas, 32, and Bonner, 37, are two of the most experienced players in the league when it comes to the playoffs, and they seem to once again rise to the occasion on the biggest of occasions.

If these three players perform well, who will advance? Goalie Marina Mabry was impressive in the first-round series for the Sun. Another Notre Dame graduate, Kayla McBride, also had a strong showing for Minnesota.

Minnesota will advance if: The Lynx moved the ball as well against Connecticut as they did against Phoenix. The Mercury are clearly not as good defensively as the Suns. But it was still impressive how well the Lynx shared the ball in that series: 30 assists and 10 fouls in Game 1 and 28 and 7 fouls in Game 2.

We know both teams are solid defensively. But Minnesota also led the WNBA in assists during the regular season with 23.0 per game. If the Lynx can attack the Suns with that level of accuracy, they’ll win the series.

Connecticut will advance if: The sun is able to slow down Collier — we won’t say. Stop, Because that’s not going to happen — and if they beat the Lynx at their own game by limiting them even more from the 3-point line. The Fever shot 26.7% from 3-point range in Wednesday’s loss to the Sun, and 21.4% in Sunday’s loss. That was a big part of why the Fever couldn’t get their offense going as well as they did through the end of the regular season. The Sun make everything tough defensively, and they’re as physical as any team in the league.

Who will win the series?

Andrea Adelson: Sun at 5
Katie Barnes: Lynx in 4
Charlie Cream: Lynx in 4
Sean Hurd: Lynx in 5
Myron Medcalf: Lynx in 5
Kevin Belton: Lynx in 5
Alexa Philippou: Lynx in 5
Michael Voebel: Lynx in 5