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Austin FC winger Jader Obrian prepares for a match at Q2 Stadium (Courtesy of Austin FC)
Like a Formula 1 car getting its tires up to temperature over the first few laps of a race, Austin FC took a while to get fully up to speed in the 2024 regular season.
The Verde and Black managed just three points and were winless in their first five games of the season. Then things shifted into high gear. In the following 10 games, the club collected 20 points, including six wins, and climbed into the top five of the Western Conference.
Several factors have led to that huge increase in results. Scoring timely goals at home, being tough to break down on the road and keeping the shortstop squad relatively healthy have all contributed. But there’s another uncomfortable reality about Austin FC’s recent success, one that will sideline the Verde and Black for the better part of a month: the opposition has been remarkably tame.
Only one of Austin FC’s opponents since late March started this week higher than seventh in the West. (The lone team, the LA Galaxy, whom Austin FC beat 2-0 on April 27, remains El Tree’s season-best win.) Other opponents – FC Dallas (twice), San Jose Earthquakes (twice ), St. City, Houston Dynamo (twice), Vancouver Whitecaps, Sporting Kansas City and Portland Timbers – all make up seven of the bottom eight teams in the West. Together, they have won 25 matches, drawn 29 and lost 45.
According to PlayoffStatus.comAustin FC has faced the easiest schedule of any team in the Western Conference through the first 16 games of the season.
Now, that alone is not a criticism of Verde and Black. They don’t set the schedule, and you can only beat what’s in front of you. Austin FC has done this to an encouraging degree so far.
But what goes up must come down, and ATXFC is now staring head-to-head with MLS’s version of a market correction. Which means, things are about to get a lot more challenging.
As you might expect, PlayoffStatus.com also ranks Austin FC as having the toughest remaining schedule among Western Conference teams. And a big part of the reason why has to do with the club’s upcoming stretch of four straight games against clubs at or near the top of the West. And to make things even more challenging, three of those four games are away.
It starts on Saturday night with the toughest game of all: at West pacesetters Real Salt Lake. RSL entered the week leading the West in points, wins, goals scored and goal difference, having lost just once in seven home games.
Austin FC then takes two weeks off, followed by a brutal eight-day stretch that sees El Tree take on the Colorado Rapids – renewed this season after a last-place finish in 2023 – on the road, followed by a stacked LAFC at home, and finishing on the road against the surprise team of the West this season, Minnesota United.
These next four games could prove to be the key stretch in Austin FC’s season. A strong showing (any result resulting in four points or better, in this writer’s opinion) would cement Austin FC as a true dark horse contender for a deep playoff run. Anything less, and Austin FC will have a hard time showing that their early season success was simply a product of generous scheduling.
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