On Saturday, two first-time Wimbledon finalists will compete for the title, with Jasmine Paolini taking on Barbora Krejcikova.
Paulini has had a great year, and just played in her first ever major final at the French Open. Krejcikova won the 2021 French Open and wants to repeat the feat. Who will she win? We asked our experts:
What can Paolini do to beat Krejcikova?
Darcy Maine: The two players have only faced each other once, in the first round of qualifying for the 2018 Australian Open. And they were so far removed from that match that Paolini didn’t even remember it when she spoke to the media on Thursday, instead saying they had never faced each other before. (Krejcikova won that match, for the record.)
Having played in the French Open final just over a month ago, Paulini now knows what it’s like to play in a Grand Slam, and all the nerves and emotions that come with it. She’ll need to draw on that experience to play her best right from the start, not letting a moment scare her. She’ll also need to maintain the same positive energy that we’ve seen (and that fans have loved) throughout the tournament.
Paolini told reporters before she knew who she would face that she would need to improve her serve and control points more on Saturday regardless of her opponent, and that could be especially crucial against Krejcikova, who has the ability to do the same. Ultimately, Paolini will need to maintain the same confidence and determination she has had over the past two weeks and fight until the last point.
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Paolini completes his victory and reaches the Wimbledon final
Jasmine Paolini wins a closely contested semi-final against Donna Vekic in three sets to advance to the Wimbledon final.
Bill Conley: She has to keep Krejcikova off balance, because if Krejcikova gets her timing right, she’ll be the cleanest player in tennis. Paolini does a very good job of adapting and showing a willingness to experiment with her tactics, and that will be very important. Move Krejcikova, change speeds, trust her athleticism (which was a key factor against Donna Vekic in the semifinals). And don’t look at Krejcikova the same way twice. Krejcikova kept hitting the ball harder and more accurately as the match against Rybakina progressed, but Paolini is certainly willing to switch to plans B, C, D, etc., to find answers.
Sam Borden: I agree with Bell that the key to Paolini’s success is her ability to adapt to whatever the moment demands: sometimes it’s tactical, often it’s mental resilience, as when she squandered two match points against Vekic but never let it all slip away. She knows the weaknesses that come with being constantly undersized, but she’s very creative in finding ways to overcome that in whatever situation she’s in.
What can Krejcikova do to beat Paolini?
Maine: There was one thing that stood out to me most about Krejcikova’s performance after losing the first four games to Rybakina on Thursday: She didn’t panic and remained calm. Even though she felt like the first set was going to be tough, she fought tooth and nail and made Rybakina work on it. In that context, she seemed to be playing the match with her heart. Krejcikova later said she was “on edge” after winning her first game, looking more aggressive and energetic with each game she won.
Krejcikova has proven she can beat just about anyone over the past two weeks — she’s beaten No. 11 seed Danielle Collins and No. 13 seed Jelena Ostapenko in the last 16 and quarterfinals, respectively — and she has a versatile game that can frustrate the sport’s best. If she can capitalize on her versatility, find the early “zone” and stop any momentum Paolini might find, she could lift her second Grand Slam trophy on Saturday.
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Krejcikova beats Rybakina to reach first Wimbledon final
Barbora Krejcikova beat Elena Rybakina 6-3 3-6 6-4 to reach her first Wimbledon final.
Conley: Her power-hitting was one of the keys to her win over Rybakina – after a weak start in which she lost the first four games, each shot became bigger and bigger, and she won 15 of the last 23 games. It’s the main advantage she has over the speedy Paolini. You can’t really extract anything from their only professional meeting, Krejcikova’s 6-2, 6-1 win in the 2018 Australian Open qualifier, but it’s worth noting that in that match she served aces 13% of the time (usually around 5%) and won 74% of Paolini’s second-serve points. When she got a chance to dictate the tempo, she went for it, and that’s likely to be a key part of this match as well.
Borden: I think the biggest hurdle she’ll face is the crowd – everyone has fallen in love with Paolini and her great attitude, so Krejcikova is likely to have a lot of feelings against her. She’s shown in the past that she’s more than capable of handling high-pressure situations – the 2021 French Open title plus 10 (!) other doubles titles – but the atmosphere of Centre Court at Wimbledon, with the crowd cheering your opponent, is a different kind of strawberry. If she can handle the emotional element, she’ll have every chance of winning.
who will win?
Maine: Rybakina said it might come down to who can recover better physically from the semifinal and she may be right. After watching these two exceptional semifinals, the only thing I know for sure is that we will have a competitive and lively final on Saturday. However, if I had to pick a winner, and I will likely change my mind on this a few times, I would pick Krejcikova in three entertaining sets.
Conley: Looking at her French Open and Wimbledon careers, she has faced Paolini no less than seven times. She has won all but one of those matches. Have I learned my lesson? No! Krejcikova is a top-five player when she is in good shape and in good rhythm, and for the first time in a while, those are the qualities that unite them. It would be amazing if the match didn’t go to three sets given how many close sets they have each played (and how well they have each played them), but Krejcikova is on fire. She has won three matches.
Borden: Paolini. The loss to Iga Swiatek at the French Open gave her some much-needed experience on the biggest stage, and it’s hard to bet against a player of such strength. Paolini’s will and fighting spirit are unmatched, and while Krejcikova is in great form too, I think Paolini will come out on top in a three-setter. Let’s go!
