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This season has been both predictable and unexpected. We’ve seen typical MLB powerhouses, such as the New York Yankees, reemerge from down seasons, but we’ve also seen surprises such as the Cleveland Guardians having the best record in the American League or the Atlanta Braves going 13-14 in May.
Meanwhile, the Texas Rangers and Arizona Diamondbacks seem to have a World Series hangover, with Arizona hovering around .500 and Texas four games under that. Both the St. Louis Cardinals and New York Mets have come back from slow starts to put themselves squarely in the — very muddled — National League wild-card race. From a player perspective, we’ve seen Pittsburgh Pirates rookie pitching sensation Paul Skenes take the league by storm, Gunnar Henderson keep up with Aaron Judge in the early AL MVP race and young stars Bobby Witt Jr. and Jarren Duran solidify themselves as the future of their franchises. And, of course, we can’t forget about Shohei Ohtani, who continues to put up eye-popping numbers at the plate this season despite undergoing Tommy John surgery last September, which has kept him off the mound in 2024.
How will all of these teams perform in the second half? Who will dominate in the homestretch? And what does your club have to play for?
We’ve broken down all 30 squads into five tiers based on playoff potential and asked ESPN MLB experts Bradford Doolittle, Alden Gonzalez, Jesse Rogers, David Schoenfield and Jorge Castillo to provide a rundown of what the rest of the season looks like for each team. We’ve also included Doolittle’s final win-loss projections and calculated division title, playoff and championship odds for all 30 teams.
Rest-of-season projections are based on 10,000 Monte Carlo-style simulations of the remaining schedule using Doolittle’s power ratings for each team as the basis for the simulated outcomes. The power ratings are determined by season-to-date results and forecast-based estimates of roster strength.
Note: Teams are in order of best-to-worst playoff odds within their respective tiers.
TIER 1: THE BIG FIVE
Record: 62-34 | Projected final record: 101-61
Division title odds: 89.5% | Playoff odds: 100% | Championship odds: 19.4%
How they got to the top: Incredible front-line pitching. The Phillies’ top four starters — Zack Wheeler, Aaron Nola, Ranger Suarez and Cristopher Sanchez — are a combined 38-16 with a 2.96 ERA. Jeff Hoffman, Matt Strahm and Orion Kerkering give the Phillies three relievers with a sub-2.00 ERA. When Sanchez became a late replacement for the All-Star Game, that meant the Phillies became the first team with five All-Star pitchers in one season — Wheeler, Suarez, Hoffman, Strahm and Sanchez. Oh, and Bryce Harper, Trea Turner and Alec Bohm made up three-fourths of the starting infield as the Phillies set a club record with eight All-Stars in Arlington.
What to expect from here: A big push to end the Braves’ six-year reign atop the NL East and capture the first division title for the Phillies since setting a franchise record with 102 wins in 2011. That number is in reach — especially if president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski improves a weak bench at the trade deadline and perhaps deals for a starting outfielder. They’d prefer not to head into October with Johan Rojas, who struggled last postseason, once again as their regular center fielder. — Schoenfield
Record: 58-40 | Projected final record: 97-65
Division title odds: 60.1% | Playoff odds: 98.9% | Championship odds: 14.6%
How they got to the top: A starting rotation that more than held its own without Gerrit Cole and a historic one-two punch in Aaron Judge and Juan Soto that combined to create the cushion to absorb a dreadful four-week stretch into the All-Star break. Judge and Soto have been the best two hitters in the AL, fueling an offense that is otherwise too inconsistent. Judge’s 207 wRC+ leads the majors by a substantial margin (Shohei Ohtani is next at 186) while Soto’s 179 ranks third. Only three other Yankees with at least 50 plate appearances are north of 100.
More importantly, the starting rotation was the best in the league for two months with rookie Luis Gil, Cole’s replacement, on an All-Star path leading the charge. In late May, the Yankees set the major league record for consecutive games with starts of at least five innings and two or fewer runs allowed. Yankees starters logged at least four innings for the season’s first 76 games, another record. The consistency lightened the load on the bullpen — and abruptly ended a month ago, as the rotation had an ERA of 5.37 in June and 4.80 in July.
What to expect from here: A busy trade deadline to upgrade the bullpen and infield for a postseason push with a roster that could look very different next season. Soto, Clay Holmes, Alex Verdugo, Gleyber Torres, Tommy Kahnle and Anthony Rizzo will all be free agents this coming winter. That means the Yankees are all-in in 2024. Their activity around the deadline should reflect that. — Castillo
Record: 56-41 | Projected final record: 95-67
Division title odds: 93.8% | Playoff odds: 98.8% | Championship odds: 17.8%
How they got to the top: By getting superstar production from superstar players. Mookie Betts, Shohei Ohtani, Freddie Freeman and Will Smith — representing the top four spots of their lineup — slashed a combined .297/.388/.531 in the first half. Tyler Glasnow and Yoshinobu Yamamoto, meanwhile, combined to go 14-7 with a 3.25 ERA in 183 innings. But when the All-Star break arrived, Glasnow and Yamamoto both found themselves on the injured list. So did Betts, Max Muncy, Walker Buehler, Ryan Brasier and Brusdar Graterol, among several others. That’s a lot of talent missing, which is why the Dodgers’ roster is currently in flux.
What to expect from here: The final two months of the regular season were expected to essentially function as a postseason tryout for the Dodgers. That might still be the case, but it’s more a byproduct of the NL’s general mediocrity than it is the Dodgers’ dominance. They’re a below-.500 team since May 21, shocking as that might be to read. Expect better baseball from them as their roster rounds back into form, but expect urgency — more regular-season urgency than we might typically expect from this team. It might play out mostly in the trade market. They’re expected to try really hard for a front-line starting pitcher. — Gonzalez
Record: 58-38 | Projected final record: 95-67
Division title odds: 37% | Playoff odds: 97.3% | Championship odds: 8.8%
How they got to the top: A lineup loaded with young talent behind a 23-year-old sensation. The Orioles rank fifth in the majors in runs scored per game. Their collective 116 wRC+ is tied for second. They have eight players with at least 160 plate appearances and an OPS+ over 100. Five of them have yet to reach their age-28 seasons. Gunnar Henderson is the heart of it all. The AL All-Star team’s starting shortstop ranks second in the majors in fWAR (6.1), third in home runs (28), fourth in slugging percentage (.584) and fifth in wRC+ (168). If not for that duo in New York, Henderson would be the heavy favorite for AL MVP.
What to expect from here: A move — or two — to bolster a starting rotation ravaged by injuries. Corbin Burnes, the AL All-Star team’s starting pitcher, has been the ace as advertised. After that, the rotation isn’t championship-caliber. Grayson Rodriguez, Baltimore’s No. 2 starter, has given up at least six runs in two of his past five starts. Albert Suarez has been effective, posting a 2.82 ERA in 19 appearances (12 starts), but he’s a 34-year-old journeyman in the big leagues for the first time in seven years. The offense will recover from its recent funk and win games down the stretch in a tight division race. But starting pitching wins games when they matter most. — Castillo
Record: 58-37 | Projected final record: 93-69
Division title odds: 58.9% | Playoff odds: 92.8% | Championship odds: 5.6%
How they got to the top: Much more power than expected — with 109 home runs, they’re already closing in on last season’s total of 124 — but mostly a bullpen that has been the best in the majors. It ranks first in ERA (2.62), first in win probability added (8.64), first in OPS allowed (.597), second in strikeout rate (26.7%) and second in saves (34). Closer Emmanuel Clase, after a rough 2023 when he blew 12 saves and lost nine games, is 4-1 with 29 saves and a 0.81 ERA — and he recorded the save in Tuesday’s All-Star Game as well. Clase, Hunter Gaddis, Tim Herrin and Cade Smith have combined for a 1.43 ERA and just four home runs allowed in 170 innings.
What to expect from here: If the bullpen can keep up this pace, it will go down as one of the best ever and the Guardians might be able to hold on to win the AL Central. They may need a little better starting pitching, however, as they rank 23rd in the majors in rotation ERA. They did recently get Gavin Williams back from injury, but Triston McKenzie and Logan Allen are back in Triple-A with ERAs over 5.00 and Shane Bieber was lost for the season back in April. Let’s see if Cleveland makes a trade for a starter — or even an outfielder to give the team a little more offense from someone besides Steven Kwan. — Schoenfield
TIER 2: THE ESTABLISHED CONTENDERS
Record: 53-42 | Projected final record: 93-69
Division title odds: 10.1% | Playoff odds: 96.4% | Championship odds: 9%
What makes them a contender: A year after a record-setting offense carried the Braves to 104 wins, it has been the pitching staff that has stepped up while the offense — with reigning NL MVP Ronald Acuna Jr. out for the season after a knee injury and just 49 games played — has fallen all the way to 10th in the NL in runs. Chris Sale is the NL Cy Young leader at the moment, leading the NL in wins (13) and ERA (2.70) while Reynaldo Lopez (7-3, 1.88 ERA) and Max Fried (7-5, 3.08) joined Sale on the All-Star team. The bullpen has also been terrific, ranking second in the majors in ERA.
What to expect from here: If the offense can get going, maybe Atlanta can make a run at the Phillies for its seventh straight NL East title, but there have been few signs of that happening. The team’s OPS was .772 in April but just .681 since then, including .705 in July. Marcell Ozuna has been a force all season and Austin Riley has been back on track since June, but the Braves need Matt Olson and Ozzie Albies to heat up and Michael Harris II to get healthy and start hitting. General manager Alex Anthopoulos will no doubt be looking to add at least one outfielder at the deadline, and we’ll see if there’s a possible upgrade for the struggling Orlando Arcia. — Schoenfield
Record: 55-42 | Projected final record: 90-72
Division title odds: 79.8% | Playoff odds: 89.9% | Championship odds: 3.8%
What makes them a contender: They seemingly have no holes though their starting pitching could use a boost. Milwaukee plays solid defense, can run the bases and has surprised the baseball world with an offense that’s much better than expected. And the transition from Craig Counsell to Pat Murphy at manager has been as smooth as silk. The gap closed somewhat in the NL Central over the past few weeks — that was bound to happen — but until further notice, the Brewers own this division.
What to expect from here: Milwaukee already added starter Aaron Civale, but it probably isn’t done looking for hurlers. Erick Fedde would be a good fit monetarily while the biggest second-half boost is likely to come from within: the return of reliever Devin Williams. He and Trevor Megill could make for a deadly 1-2 combination at the back end of the bullpen assuming Williams returns to form. He has been out with a back injury, which means his arm is fresh for the stretch run. — Rogers
Record: 54-42 | Projected final record: 90-72
Division title odds: 36.8% | Playoff odds: 83.3% | Championship odds: 5.8%
What makes them a contender: The lineup, when healthy, can hang with the best of them. Carlos Correa and Byron Buxton are enjoying resurgent seasons. Correa, an All-Star, is slashing .308/.377/.522 with 13 home runs, while Buxton is batting .285 with an .829 OPS in 72 games after hitting .207 with a .731 OPS in 85 games last season. Jose Miranda recently tied a major league record with hits in 12 consecutive plate appearances, an unprecedented stretch that boosted his production to an All-Star level. Royce Lewis has a 185 OPS+. The problem is Lewis has played in just 24 games and is on the IL for the second time this season. Miranda is on there, too, and Correa and Buxton, two injury-prone veterans, had IL stints early in the season. But when healthy, watch out.
What to expect from here: See above. Injuries are an issue for the Twins and will be too much to overcome to chase down the Guardians for first place, leaving them to battle for a wild-card spot. The competition will be stiff. Two of the Yankees, Orioles and Red Sox, plus one of the Astros and Mariners figure to compete with Minnesota for a berth. Too many injuries and the Twins will find themselves home for October. — Castillo
Record: 50-46 | Projected final record: 87-75
Division title odds: 58.4% | Playoff odds: 69.4% | Championship odds: 5.7%
What makes them a contender: They are the Astros. For much of the first half, they certainly didn’t play like contenders, but you figured they’d go on a run at some point. They did, and with shocking rapidity, Houston’s narrative went from “The dynasty crumbles” to “Oh geez, here we go again.” When a team surges to the degree Houston has since the middle of June, it’s never just one area that gets better. But the time-honored Astros offense has really driven this return to form. You had to think that they would be back in the mix at some point — but they’ve crawled back to the cusp of first place in the division before the All-Star break as if the struggles never happened. That’s scary for the rest of the AL.
What to expect from here: Worse, if you are rooting against Houston. The aforementioned offensive charge has happened without any contribution from the Astros’ best 2024 hitter, Kyle Tucker, who was producing at an MVP level before going down with lower-body injuries. He will be back, as will future Hall of Fame ace Justin Verlander. The Astros’ trade deadline outlook has shifted from “Will they deal?” to adding finishing pieces, something the organization has been very adept at doing for close to a decade. — Doolittle
Record: 53-42 | Projected final record: 86-76
Division title odds: 1.8% | Playoff odds: 46% | Championship odds: 1.2%
What makes them a contender: A better-than-expected starting rotation and a versatile, exciting lineup. Boston’s rotation was thought to be in shambles when the season started, but All-Star Tanner Houck and Kutter Crawford have been outstanding to buoy an otherwise thin group. Offensively, the Red Sox can win games in different ways with a variety of people. They rank eighth in the majors in home runs and sixth in stolen bases. All-Star Game MVP Jarren Duran and Connor Wong have posted breakout seasons, Tyler O’Neill has been a welcomed power infusion and Rob Refsnyder has feasted on left-handed pitching while Rafael Devers continues anchoring the lineup with another stellar season. The group would only improve if first baseman Triston Casas, out since April with a rib injury, comes off the IL.
What to expect from here: Casas’s return would give the club a jolt in its pursuit of a postseason berth. As would acquiring a starting pitcher to eat innings. The rotation beyond Houck and Crawford is filled with question marks — no other starters have an ERA under 4.00. Manager Alex Cora has publicly applied pressure on the front office to acquire reinforcements, but nothing is guaranteed from an ownership group that has recently been oddly reluctant to take on money. — Castillo
Record: 52-46 | Projected final record: 86-76
Division title odds: 32.6% | Playoff odds: 45.8% | Championship odds: 1.8%
What makes them a contender: Pitching. When the Mariners are fully healthy, they have a one-through-five rotation that no one can match: George Kirby, Logan Gilbert, Luis Castillo, Bryce Miller and Bryan Woo. At the back of the bullpen, Andres Munoz has become a top-flight closer. Catcher Cal Raleigh has wielded a clutch power bat from both sides of the plate and undergirds that pitching with elite receiving skills. Alas, given the struggles of star outfielder Julio Rodriguez to hit for power with any consistency, you can nitpick the rest of the roster — and that’s a lot.
What to expect from here: The ability of the Mariners’ run prevention to carry them to the AL West crown has already proved limited. They simply need to score more runs, or it is very likely they will be overrun by both Houston and Texas in the division standings. Seattle may have more riding on the rest of the trade season than any other team in the majors. — Doolittle
Record: 52-45 | Projected final record: 84-78
Division title odds: 4% | Playoff odds: 26.8% | Championship odds: 0.5%
What makes them a contender: Starting pitching, elite defense and Bobby Witt Jr. This has been a remarkable feel-good campaign as Witt has arrived as one of baseball’s superstars and the face of the Royals. And yes, we are well aware that Salvador Perez is still around — and mashing. The roster is flawed, as you’d expect for a team that lost 106 games last season, but they’ve developed some marked strengths. The defense has been one of them, always a marker for contending Kansas City teams. The rotation has churned out quality starts, and as much as it feels like the group has overachieved, the starters have offered scant evidence that a drop-off is forthcoming.
What to expect from here: The projections going forward have improved since the season began, but the Royals’ baseline remains around .500 barring an infusion or three around the deadline. They still lack depth and have gotten very little contribution this season from rookies, which you’d expect from an emergent team. The bullpen is problematic and the Royals should have been iterating this group from the start of the season with DFA pickups and waiver claims, but they’ve been too passive in this regard. All that sounds rather pessimistic, though. Frankly, Kansas City’s success has been a little hard to explain. Explaining why it might go away is just as difficult. And, above all, the Royals have Witt, and other teams do not. — Doolittle
TIER 3: THE NL’S MUDDLED WILD-CARD RACE
Record: 49-46 | Projected final record: 84-78
Division title odds: 0.4% | Playoff odds: 51% | Championship odds: 1.3%
How they got here: It hasn’t been a smooth ride, that’s for sure. The Mets started 0-5, won 12 out of 16 and then went 9-19 in May — but they have gone 25-11 since June 3, the best record in the majors. The offense is averaging 6.0 runs per game over that stretch, also best in the majors, as Francisco Lindor and Brandon Nimmo found their swings, Francisco Alvarez returned from the IL and Mark Vientos hit his way into a regular role. The Mets now look like they have one of the best lineups in the league.
What to expect from here: A few weeks ago, New York seemed to be obvious dealers at the trade deadline — with Pete Alonso the big catch. Luis Severino, Jose Quintana, Harrison Bader, J.D. Martinez and Adam Ottavino are also heading into free agency and all would have been trade candidates as well. But with the Mets rolling, it’s more likely they look to make a small deal or two to improve their pitching — though, new president of baseball operations David Stearns also isn’t going to blow up the farm system to do it. Getting Kodai Senga — their best starter a season ago — back will help, and he’s just about ready after making three rehab starts. — Schoenfield
Record: 49-48 | Projected final record: 83-79
Division title odds: 3% | Playoff odds: 42.5% | Championship odds: 1.2%
How they got here: By finally getting going over these past six or so weeks. Yep, that’s how poorly things initially went for the defending NL champs — they needed a near-dominant run just to avoid a losing record before the All-Star break. The Diamondbacks ended May on a five-game losing streak that dropped them to 25-32 but have since won 60% of their games, giving them baseball’s fourth-best winning percentage since the start of June. It’s a credit mostly to Arizona’s offense, which has started to make up for some pretty severe starting-pitching woes.
What to expect from here: The D-backs followed a surprising World Series run by adding Eduardo Rodriguez and Jordan Montgomery to a starting rotation that already included Zac Gallen, Merrill Kelly and Brandon Pfaadt, making the case for one of the strongest groups in the sport. Arizona’s rotation ERA at the moment: 4.80, fourth highest in the majors. Gallen missed a month, Montgomery has a 6.44 ERA, Rodriguez hasn’t pitched and Kelly is nursing a shoulder strain. That plus a .212/.301/.334 slash line from Corbin Carroll are a recipe for disaster. But many see the D-backs as an upward-trending team. Rodriguez and Kelly are expected back in early August, and Carroll has shown signs of getting over his prolonged slump. — Gonzalez
Record: 50-49 | Projected final record: 83-79
Division title odds: 2.4% | Playoff odds: 37% | Championship odds: 1%
How they got here: The Padres look just as enigmatic as they were last year; every time it seems as if they’re primed for a hot stretch, they fall off once more. The month of July has been a microcosm of that. They walked off the D-backs in front of an electric home crowd on July 5, putting them six games above .500 — then they proceeded to lose six of seven going into the All-Star break. Manny Machado was slow to get going, Joe Musgrove has struggled and Fernando Tatis Jr. is hurt, but surprising production from the likes of Jurickson Profar, Jackson Merrill and knuckleballer Matt Waldron has kept them afloat.
What to expect from here: At full health, the Padres have the talent to emerge as the best wild-card team outside of the Braves. But the health of some of their best players is the biggest question heading into the second half. Tatis is nursing a stress reaction in his femur. Musgrove is dealing with elbow inflammation. Neither has a solidified timetable for a return. And then there’s Luis Arraez, who had been playing through a thumb injury that has greatly affected his hitting and forced him to sit out the All-Star break. If Arraez’s thumb doesn’t show improvement, he could be forced to the IL for a prolonged period. — Gonzalez
Record: 50-46 | Projected final record: 82-80
Division title odds: 10.6% | Playoff odds: 31.5% | Championship odds: 0.5%
How they got here: Only the Rays have been “luckier” than the Cardinals, as their Pythagorean win-loss record — based on run differential — points to a 44-52 record instead of their actual 50-46. But it’s the actual that matters, and having All-Star closer Ryan Helsley finishing off close games is one reason St. Louis has thrived despite some team stats that are less than impressive. They’ve also received surprisingly effective production from Kyle Gibson and Lance Lynn — two hurlers many had doubts about going into the season. St. Louis has simply been better than expected.
What to expect from here: If their pitching continues to keep them in games and Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado pick up their production in the second half, the Cardinals have a shot at the postseason. They might add on to the margins come the trade deadline, but their best hopes come from within — Alec Burleson and Masyn Winn can’t do it by themselves. To this point, it has been enough to own a wild-card spot heading into the second half but St. Louis is going to be challenged. A negative regression to the mean is quite possible. — Rogers
Record: 47-50 | Projected final record: 80-82
Division title odds: 0.8% | Playoff odds: 17.1% | Championship odds: 0.1%
How they got here: The Giants have spent a grand total of five days above .500 but have not slipped further than six games below. They have been perfectly mediocre, which was far from the goal when they committed $315 million to five free agents heading into the season. Among that group, only Matt Chapman and Jordan Hicks have performed to expectations. Blake Snell has made just eight starts; Jung Hoo Lee dislocated his shoulder in his 37th game; and Jorge Soler has homered just 10 times. If not for Logan Webb anchoring the rotation and Heliot Ramos locking down center field, the Giants might be out of contention entirely.
What to expect from here: Giants starters took down the fewest innings in baseball last year and have done so again this year. That is, uh, quite unsustainable. If you’re searching for optimism in that realm, look no further than Snell’s last start, when he pitched seven scoreless innings against the Twins and looked very much like the guy who won a Cy Young Award last year (not the one who currently has a 6.31 ERA in spite of that). A sobering note: Hicks, who has been every bit as good as one could hope, has already thrown 95 innings and needs to be treated carefully in his transition from bullpen to rotation. Regardless of how you see it, the success of the Giants’ second half will hinge largely on the returns of Robbie Ray and Alex Cobb, neither of whom have pitched all year. — Gonzalez
Record: 48-48 | Projected final record: 79-83
Division title odds: 2.8% | Playoff odds: 10.7% | Championship odds: 0.1%
How they got here: Paul Skenes. Paul Skenes. Paul Skenes. OK, Jared Jones and a few others have also helped the Pirates to their first .500 record at the break since 2016. They certainly didn’t achieve that record via offensive means — it has all been through that pitching staff. Since Skenes came up in early May, Pittsburgh is five games over .500. Who knows, finishing the year another five games over .500 might be enough to secure a wild-card spot in the mediocre NL. And kudos to All-Star Bryan Reynolds, who continues to be Pittsburgh’s lone reliable hitter at the plate. His .834 OPS ranks 11th in all of baseball.
What to expect from here: It’s hard to see a path to the playoffs relying so heavily on two young starters — and Jones is hurt right now anyway — unless the Pirates are simply going to ignore workload limits. But any push for the postseason would have to include a trade for a bat this month. Pittsburgh isn’t traditionally aggressive in that area and its window of contention is just now opening, so a more conservative approach might be in order. The Pirates might be a year early anyway, which means playing meaningful games in the second half this season could be a victory in and of itself — and set them up for a bigger 2025. — Rogers
TIER 4: PLAYING THEIR WAY OUT OF CONTENTION
Record: 46-50 | Projected final record: 81-81
Division title odds: 9% | Playoff odds: 16.3% | Championship odds: 0.6%
How they got here: Injuries are a big part of it. For much of the first half, Texas featured an All-Star starting rotation, albeit one that existed only on the IL. Still, the injuries haven’t been the only aspect of the Rangers’ championship hangover. They are scoring more than a run per game fewer than they did a season ago, quashing hopes that the hitters could carry Texas early in the season while the wounded hurlers rehabbed their way back.
What to expect from here: The Rangers will get healthier as the season progresses, but the time has passed for them to bide their time, waiting to get whole. They have shown signs of heating up of late but still remain well under .500. They need to catch fire in a major way in the two weeks after the break or some hard decisions will have to be made at the deadline. Primarily: Is it too late for this version of the Rangers, and should they focus on loading up for 2025? — Doolittle
Record: 47-51 | Projected final record: 80-82
Division title odds: 3.7% | Playoff odds: 13.9% | Championship odds: 0.2%
How they got here: Let’s count the reasons that have led to the Cubs landing in last place in the division at the All-Star break: poor defense, underperforming offense, bad baserunning and a shaky bullpen sound about right. To be fair, they’ve had some injuries, but Dansby Swanson has a WRC+ of just 80 while Cody Bellinger has nine home runs so far. That’s not going to cut it on a team that needs most of its lineup clicking in order for it to be successful. The Cubs aren’t built to rely on a couple sluggers. What has kept them within striking range of the postseason is a solid starting staff led by rookie All-Star Shota Imanaga. In fact, their best hitter has been a rookie as well. Michael Busch has been the best story on the team outside of Imanaga.
What to expect from here: A soft deal or add at the deadline is likely for the Cubs. They aren’t in all-in mode, and they don’t have a lot of pending free agents. Having said that, with two decent-looking rookies getting time in center and at first base, Bellinger has become expendable. The Cubs wouldn’t mind getting out from under his contract, which includes two player options at $30 million per year. If they add, it better be for a closer or there’s no point. The return of Julian Merryweather from injury will help, but a steely ninth-inning guy is much needed in Chicago. — Rogers
Record: 47-50 | Projected final record: 79-83
Division title odds: 3.2% | Playoff odds: 11% | Championship odds: 0.1%
How they got here: Injuries and assorted underperformances have kept the Reds under .500 all season. They’ve made strides of late, but like the Cubs, it’s not all clicking in Cincinnati. The continued development of Hunter Greene and Elly De La Cruz has been a good storyline, but overall, the parts on offense have been better than the sum. That shows up in the team’s Pythagorean win-loss record. They “should” be 53-44 instead of 47-50. An 8-18 record in one-run games will do that to you.
What to expect from here: Cincinnati is likely to stay the course and perhaps add on the margins come the trade deadline. And there are two things that could turn in the Reds’ favor: that record in one-run games and their offense giving the pitching staff some more room to breathe. That’s not totally far-fetched, as one scout called the Reds a “sleeping giant” in the second half. A nine-game road trip out of the break will be telling. The sum needs to be better than those parts moving forward or the Reds will be unable to make a second-half surge. — Rogers
Record: 48-48 | Projected final record: 80-82
Division title odds: 0% | Playoff odds: 6.3% | Championship odds: 0.1%
How they got here: The Rays are on a path to missing the postseason for the first time in six years thanks to a combination of costly pitching injuries and rampant offensive underperformance. Four starters, including ace Shane McClanahan, haven’t thrown a pitch yet this season. Offensively, Yandy Diaz has regressed after winning the AL batting title last season, Randy Arozarena has posted a 93 OPS+ and Brandon Lowe, one of the club’s two best hitters this season, has been limited to just 49 games.
What to expect from here: Average might be enough to reach the postseason in the NL — but the AL is a different matter. Two teams from the AL East, one from the West, and two from the Central are ahead of the Rays in the wild-card race. Jumping three teams — and 5.5 games — for a spot is very unlikely even with the expected returns of Jeffrey Springs and Drew Rasmussen in the second half. Tampa’s astute front office knows that, so expect the Rays to shift their focus to 2025 and shed veterans at the deadline. — Castillo
Record: 47-50 | Projected final record: 79-83
Division title odds: 0.3% | Playoff odds: 4.9% | Championship odds: 0.1%
How they got here: Tarik Skubal, in his fourth full season, has put himself at the forefront of the AL Cy Young discussion, going 10-3 with a major league-best 2.41 ERA. Riley Greene, the No. 5 pick from five years ago, has emerged as a cornerstone outfielder, slashing .271/.364/.503 with 17 homers and five triples. But the Tigers’ offense has been mostly anemic outside of Greene. And several of the veteran players added to supplement a young core — namely Kenta Maeda, Shelby Miller, Mark Canha and Gio Urshela — have struggled.
What to expect from here: The Tigers’ next 10 games will come against the Blue Jays, Guardians and Twins, three series that could determine whether they trade away impact players before the July 30 trade deadline. Barring a hot stretch, Jack Flaherty — a revelation in his age-28 season — will be dealt. And what will matter most for the Tigers over these next two and a half months is the continued development of their best young players. The good news is that 22-year-old second baseman Colt Keith is OPS’ing 1.267 in July. The bad news is that Spencer Torkelson, the No. 1 pick in 2020, is still mired in Triple-A. — Gonzalez
Record: 44-52 | Projected final record: 76-86
Division title odds: 0% | Playoff odds: 1.1% | Championship odds: 0%
How they got here: The offense just isn’t good. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. rebounded from a slow start — he’s slashing .288/.539/.456 with 12 home runs at the break — but he has gotten little help. Isiah Kiner-Falefa, who is on the IL, ranks second in the club with a 115 OPS+ among qualified hitters. Ernie Clement (102) and Danny Jansen (100) are the only other players in triple digits. Veterans Justin Turner, George Springer and Kevin Kiermaier have struggled to varying degrees, but Bo Bichette has been the biggest disappointment. The two-time All-Star shortstop has a .222/.275/.321 slash line with four home runs, his worst season as a major leaguer. His underperformance is a significant reason why Toronto ranks 24th in runs scored per game this season.
What to expect from here: An ugly second half. The Blue Jays are ready to offload veterans at the trade deadline. The question is how far is general manager Ross Atkins willing to go. Will he only consider trading upcoming free agents Yusei Kikuchi, Jansen and Turner? Or will Atkins trade players under team control beyond this year, too, and attempt to move Guerrero, Bichette and/or Chris Bassitt? That would constitute pulling the plug on a once-promising core that made postseason appearances in three of the past four years and was swept in the wild card each time. — Castillo
Record: 44-53 | Projected final record: 71-91
Division title odds: 0% | Playoff odds: 0.3% | Championship odds: 0%
How they got here: The Nationals were hanging around .500 at 38-39 in late June, but they went 6-14 in their 20 games before the All-Star break to just about fall out of the wild-card race. They were never expected to really be in it anyway, but at least they’ve seen improvement from some of their key young players such as All-Star CJ Abrams (15 home runs, 137 OPS+), Luis Garcia (116 OPS+), Jake Irvin (3.49 ERA) and MacKenzie Gore (4.01 ERA, but 116 strikeouts in 98⅔ innings and just seven home runs allowed). Rookie Mitchell Parker (3.97 ERA) has been a pleasant surprise in the rotation as well.
What to expect from here: Let the kids play. James Wood has been up for 14 games and is getting his first taste of the big leagues at 21 years old. Dylan Crews — last year’s No. 2 pick — is in Triple-A, and while he isn’t tearing it up, he could get called up at some point. Parker will stay in the rotation and DJ Herz will get more opportunities there as well. Meanwhile, the Nationals have already traded Eddie Rosario and Hunter Harvey, but Jesse Winker, Dylan Floro and maybe Kyle Finnegan could also get dealt. — Schoenfield
TIER 5: THE BOTTOM-FEEDERS
Record: 41-55 | Projected final record: 70-92
Division title odds: 0% | Playoff odds: 0.1% | Championship odds: 0%
Where it all went wrong: Going all-in ahead of last year’s trade deadline and then belly flopping set the Angels’ franchise back for the next handful of years. No, it’s not a death knell, even if watching Ohtani go into historic mode for the Dodgers might feel like it. But for now, this is a bad team — one with no short-term hope of a turnaround. It’s a sad situation for a return to managerial duties for Ron Washington, who is at fault for none of this.
What to expect from here: The Angels should offload around the deadline, but it’s hard to see how they’d bring back any kind of system-energizing influx of talent. This is going to take time. In recent years, as sad as things sometimes got for the Tigers, there was always Miguel Cabrera to root for. The Angels may be entering a similar era with Mike Trout, unless he finally pushes to be moved to a contender. — Doolittle
Record: 37-61 | Projected final record: 62-100
Division title odds: 0% | Playoff odds: 0% | Championship odds: 0%
Where it all went wrong: When John Fisher bought the team? Well, the A’s have had some good seasons since that happened, but it has always felt like those happened despite ownership, not because of it. Now, with the team on the move again, it remains hard to view the skinflint A’s through a truly baseball-centric lens. Is it possible to long for the days of Charlie O. Finley?
What to expect from here: More losses and then a weird finale to a season that ends the team’s 57-year stay in Oakland. Probably some more offloading of talent at the deadline. The A’s aren’t bereft of talent, always a testament to the smart people who run their baseball operations. But this is a bleak time in a bleak place. — Doolittle
Record: 33-63 | Projected final record: 58-104
Division title odds: 0% | Playoff odds: 0% | Championship odds: 0%
Where it all went wrong: Do we have the bandwidth for this? OK, let’s keep it simple: injuries. The Marlins already knew Sandy Alcantara was going to be out for the season, but they’ve also lost Eury Perez (Tommy John surgery) for the season. Their 60-day IL also includes Jesus Luzardo, Sixto Sanchez and Ryan Weathers, while Braxton Garrett is currently on the 15-day IL. Trevor Rogers has been the only healthy starting pitcher and he’s 1-9 with a 4.72 ERA. You need a good offense to overcome all of that — and the Marlins, most decidedly, do not have a good offense. Only the White Sox have scored fewer runs.
What to expect from here: What a disastrous first season for first-year baseball operations president Peter Bendix. The Marlins got off to such a bad start that Bendix, after playing it cautiously in the offseason, traded Luis Arraez back in early May. He’d love to trade Josh Bell, but Bell hasn’t hit. Maybe Jazz Chisholm Jr.? There isn’t much in the farm system to call up either. Xavier Edwards is already up and playing shortstop, as is any pitcher with a pulse. The Marlins will be chasing the White Sox and battling the Rockies for the worst record. — Schoenfield
Record: 34-63 | Projected final record: 57-105
Division title odds: 0% | Playoff odds: 0% | Championship odds: 0%
Where it all went wrong: The Rockies lost 100 games for the first time in franchise history last year and are on pace to set a new low with 105 losses. The reason is simple: The team that plays at mile-high altitude can’t pitch and doesn’t hit well enough to make up for it. Not even close, actually. The Rockies sport an unsightly 5.61 ERA, a full run worse than the 29th-ranked Marlins, but they rank only 16th in OPS despite such favorable hitting conditions. Dakota Hudson, Ryan Feltner, Austin Gomber and Kyle Freeland have combined for a 5.34 ERA while making 64% of the team’s starts. And Kris Bryant, in the third year of a seven-year, $182 million contract, has contributed a .586 OPS in 24 games.
What to expect from here: One positive for the Rockies has been Cal Quantrill, who has contributed a 4.13 ERA in 19 starts and could yield a nice return in what is very much a dealer’s market for starting pitchers. Unless they part with Ryan McMahon, the 29-year-old third baseman who made his first All-Star team this year, the Rockies won’t have much else to trade before the end of July. Moving forward, it’s all about what German Marquez looks like in his return from Tommy John surgery and the continued development of young position players such as Ezequiel Tovar, Brenton Doyle and Nolan Jones, the third of whom has struggled. — Gonzalez
Record: 27-71 | Projected final record: 49-113
Division title odds: 0% | Playoff odds: 0% | Championship odds: 0%
Where it all went wrong: It has gone wrong in every possible way for the White Sox as they are reaping what they sowed over the past 12-24 months. At least some of it was by design — general manager Chris Getz is stripping the franchise down and starting over. Still, the putrid offense has been a tough watch. You don’t need to know any fancy analytics to understand this one: The White Sox are 29th in batting average, 30th in slugging and 30th in OPS. That’s how you end up 27-71 despite solid efforts from starting pitchers Garrett Crochet, Erick Fedde and Chris Flexen.
What to expect from here: More trades and more young players coming up from the minors. The future is there. Righty Drew Thorpe is already impressing people while lefty Noah Schultz can’t be far behind. Getz can hit a home run or two — along with a few doubles — later this month as he has pitching other teams want. When the prices come down a little closer to the trade deadline, we’ll see some wheeling and dealing. The White Sox are likely to come out of all this with one of the best farm systems in the game — though, those don’t win you titles. See their organizational rankings back in 2019 for evidence. — Rogers
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