[ad_1]
At UFC 288, Merab Dvalishvili stole Sean O’Malley’s jacket after teammate Aljamin Sterling defended his bantamweight title against Henry Cejudo. O’Malley was there to greet Sterling, as “Suga” was next in line for the title. A few months later, O’Malley dethroned Sterling to become the new bantamweight champion.
Now Dvalishvili has a chance to get O’Malley’s belt.
At UFC 306, O’Malley will defend his title against Dvalishvili in the main event. In the co-main event, this season’s Ultimate Fighter coaches — UFC lightweight champion Alexa Grasso and Valentina Shevchenko — will square off in a trilogy to decide who will be the queen of the 125-pound division.
Andreas Hill, Brett Okamoto and Jeff Wagenheim give their first thoughts on the official title matches, while betting expert Ian Parker explains his best early bets.
Fill in the blank: Would O’Malley-Dvalishvili be ___________?
Okamoto: Biggest win of O’Malley’s career. This may seem like a given – there’s a common idea in combat sports that “your next fight is always the biggest one” – but in this case, it certainly is.
It’s a bit wild, considering it wasn’t who The O’Malley vs. Dvalishvili lightweight bout has long been exciting and big, but it wasn’t exciting and big. A lot of that is down to O’Malley. Dvalishvili deserves credit, too. He’s looked like the beast in this division in recent years, and there will be plenty of expectations for Dvalishvili to win, but the reason this fight is a lightweight title contender is because of O’Malley. It feels like it’s on the cusp of a big moment. excellent Stardom, and I think the UFC feels that, which is why he has this platform.
That alone makes this the biggest fight for O’Malley. The UFC will be putting a lot of money into promoting this event. The promotion wants it to feel like a special night. I think UFC CEO Dana White is obsessed with making this a more historic show than UFC 300 in April or maybe even Conor McGregor’s comeback. As important as it was for O’Malley to beat Petr Yan in Abu Dhabi two years ago, win the title against Aljamain Sterling in Boston last year and put on a show-stopping performance against Marlon Vera in Miami in March, this moment could eclipse all of those moments in comparison.
This could be McGregor’s crowning moment at Madison Square Garden, given the sheer visual potential The Sphere offers. He’ll rocket to stardom with a memorable win here.
Real or not: Will Dvalishvili be the biggest challenge of O’Malley’s career?
Hill: It’s real, very real. Dvalishvili’s skills could be O’Malley’s worst nightmare.
The road to the bantamweight title was a bit of a quick one for O’Malley after his controversial decision win over Yan, allowing him to outclass the rest of the division. O’Malley has primarily faced heavyweights in the UFC, and Dvalishvili’s speed and determination to push his opponent into the tack will be something he has never experienced. While Sterling’s wrestling was a threat to O’Malley, he lacked the explosiveness to land the takedowns necessary to exploit those skills. Dvalishvili fights like he came out of a cannon, and O’Malley has never faced an opponent like him. He may never face one.
If O’Malley can hold off the challenger, any questions about whether he is eligible for a real fighter title will be answered.
If Grasso beats Shevchenko, will she become the best women’s flyweight champion ever?
Wagenheim: She’ll certainly have a strong case.. Especially considering that Grasso has yet to lose a bout in three fights against Shevchenko. But it’s not a decisive blow, just as Jose Aldo’s 13-second knockout win makes Conor McGregor the greatest featherweight of all time. Longevity matters. A win at UFC 306 would give Grasso two career titles; Shevchenko has eight, the most of any woman at 125 pounds. From 2019 to 2022, “The Bullet” has made seven consecutive title defenses and is the division’s all-time leader in several statistical categories, from knockouts (four) to takedowns (39), most strikes (1,597) to fewest strikes absorbed (1.88 per minute). Shevchenko owns the flyweight division, historically.
Last year’s loss to Grasso came three days before Shevchenko’s 35th birthday. It’s reasonable to assume that time was as much to blame for the defeat as Grasso — and we may see the aging process play out again on Sept. 14. Another win would be a stepping stone for Grasso, who is just 30 and has only been at flyweight since 2020. One day, she may have a resume worthy of the greatest 125-pound boxer of all time. But even with a second win over Shevchenko, Grasso still has more to do.
What are the best early bets on UFC 306 title fights?
Parker: Finish the race the O’Malley way or the Dvalishvili marathon. Dvalishvili will have to avoid O’Malley’s knockout power and turn the fight into a five-round grappling match. O’Malley will use his straddle and grapple technique until he touches his opponent’s chin.
So, I predict O’Malley to win via TKO/KO, and Dvalishvili to win via decision. Dvalishvili has a history of knockouts in fights, but he has found ways to win each time, usually by decision. The question is, can he recover if O’Malley drops him?
Parker: Betting on Shevchenko. In their first bout at UFC 285, Shevchenko was on track to make a successful title defense until she made a fatal mistake that cost her the title. In the rematch last September, the judges ruled the bout a draw, and Grasso became the champion. I still think Shevchenko is the better fighter, regardless of the outcome, and it’s hard to imagine her not righting the wrongs of the past in a third bout.
Grasso is a serious threat if she can beat her opponent, but if Shevchenko can prevent that from happening again, the title should return to Kyrgyzstan.
What’s your bold prediction for UFC 306?
Okamoto: UFC will do it again at Sphere. White has said it will be a “one-time only” because of the cost of putting it on, and I think he thinks it will be a one-time only. But “never” is a long time, and the UFC is not moving out of Las Vegas anytime soon. I have a hard time believing that the UFC will pull this off, put in the effort to learn how to do it, and not do it again. I think it will work out just fine, because of the amount of time and resources that are put into it. I think fighters who aren’t on this card will watch and want to experience fighting there. And I think in the end it will be memorable and very tempting to do it again. It may take a few years, but if you end up not getting a ticket to UFC 306 at the Sphere, I think the opportunity will come around again, eventually.
Hill: Shevchenko will find her form and finish Grasso’s job. Yes, Grasso has improved significantly over the years, and Shevchenko may be on the decline of her career at 36. But a miscalculation cost her her first fight, and her erratic 10-8 record denied her a chance to reclaim her title. Bullitt spent nearly 45 minutes in the ring with Grasso, a master strategist. I expect her to remind everyone why she is the best fighter in women’s mixed martial arts.
Wagenheim: Dvalishvili will hit double figures in takedowns. He’s already done it four times in 12 UFC appearances. As long as the challenger isn’t caught early — as teammate Sterling did in his fight with O’Malley last summer — “The Machine” will have plenty of time to take the fight to the mat. Not giving up is his best weapon. Against Yan, Dvalishvili struck 11 takedowns — out of 49 attempts! O’Malley’s job won’t be so much to block takedowns. It will be to get the fight back to where it belongs — on his feet.
[ad_2]
