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Week 3 of the 2024 NFL season features a slew of exciting games and matchups between teams. The week kicks off on Thursday night with an AFC East battle between the New England Patriots and the New York Jets at MetLife Stadium.
On Sunday, the Dallas Cowboys look to bounce back from a disappointing loss to the New Orleans Saints as they host the Baltimore Ravens in Arlington. In Sunday’s primetime game, Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs, who beat the Baltimore Ravens 2-0, head to Atlanta to face the Baltimore Falcons.
Monday night sees the first primetime doubleheader of the season as Trevor Lawrence and the Jacksonville Jaguars face Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills (7:30 p.m. ET on ESPN) and rookie Jae Den Daniels and the Washington Commanders face Joe Burrow and the Cincinnati Bengals (8:30 p.m. ET on ABC/ESPN+).
Our betting analysts take an early look at Week 3 lines to find some value before things get close to the games.
Current odds as of press time, courtesy of ESPN BET
Joe Fortenbaugh’s first bet: Arizona Cardinals – Detroit Lions over 52.5 points (-105)
I rated Arizona as an “overachiever” team at the start of the season in August based on the simplest analysis imaginable: good offense and bad defense. Well, in two games, Kyler Murray and company have gone 2-0 in each outing. Expect Detroit’s offense to bounce back in a big way after scoring just 16 points on 463 total offensive yards in Week 2. But that’s what happens when you go 1-of-7 in the red zone. Expect some positive regression in that department.
Tyler Fulghum’s first bet: Cleveland Browns – New York Giants under 38.5 points (-110)
I can see that total dropping by a point or two so I want to take advantage of it now. The New York Giants are averaging just 12.0 points per game this season and Daniel Jones has looked less than great. Now, the Giants face one of the toughest assignments in football, facing the Cleveland Browns defense. On the other hand, Deshaun Watson doesn’t look much better. The Giants have a formidable defense that can help them stay in control. This game looks ugly in Cleveland as the winning team will likely need only 17 to 20 points.
Anita Marks and Pam Maldonado’s first bet: Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-7) vs. Denver Broncos
The Buccaneers started the season strong, beating the Washington Commanders by 17 points and pulling off a huge upset against the Lions on the road with an injured secondary. Baker Mayfield showed why he was the No. 1 overall pick in 2018, throwing five touchdowns and just one interception through two games. Rookie quarterback Bo Nix and the 0-2 Broncos head to Tampa with just one touchdown this season, coming off a physical game against the Pittsburgh Steelers. I’d jump on that number now before it goes to 7.5. — Signs
The Buccaneers’ high-powered offense, led by Baker Mayfield (tied for first with five touchdowns and second in yards per attempt), puts the Broncos in a potential play-from-behind situation. Can rookie quarterback Bo Nix keep up the pace? The answer is a resounding no. Nix has a hard time reading and responding to NFL defenses. His performance reflects that, as he has yet to throw a touchdown pass and has four interceptions in two games. The Broncos also rank 29th in third-down conversions. Denver’s inefficient offense makes it difficult for them to keep up with Tampa Bay’s scoring. — Maldonado
Ben Solak’s first bet: New England Patriots (+6.5) vs. New York Jets
Over the past two weeks, the Patriots’ formula has been as expected: play strong defense, run the ball well, and keep the scores close. You might win the game with a foul or a lucky rebound. So getting a near-full-goal lead against the New York Jets is too good to pass up. The Jets’ offensive line hasn’t been as good as expected after their revamp, and their run defense is questionable as well. Expect the Patriots to win in the trenches and take this rocky battle to a 6.5-point margin.
Seth Walder’s first bet: New York Giants (+7) vs. Cleveland Browns
Look, I’m not a believer in the New York Giants (even though they came within a win in Week 2) and I’ve always been a big fan of Cleveland’s overall lineup. But getting seven points from a team with a serious weakness at defensive back certainly seems like a bit much. And that’s exactly what Deshaun Watson has at this point: a serious weakness. Heading into Sunday night’s game, Watson is second to last in defensive back rating, ahead of only Bryce Young.
Andre Snelling’s first bet: New Orleans Saints (+2.5) vs Philadelphia Eagles (-110)
The Saints have been, without a doubt, the most impressive team in the NFL over the past two weeks. Their +62 goal differential is 27 points better than the second-best goal differential in the league, which is even more absurd when you consider that a large portion of that difference came on the road against the supposedly elite Dallas Cowboys. New Orleans has jumped to sixth in the FPI rankings and FPI currently projects them to be a 0.5-point favorite over the Eagles in Week 3 with a 50.6% chance of winning. Those numbers could change after Philadelphia plays Monday night, but that also means the Eagles will face the Saints, on the road, a short week later. I’m going with this Saints lineup with the points.
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