Rams at 1-4 before the bye; how they can turn it around

LOS ANGELES — As Sean McVay stood at the podium, after the Los Angeles Rams’s 24-19 loss to the Green Bay Packers, he said, “this one hurts.”

The Rams head coach said he felt the team had “a lot of opportunities” to avoid falling to 1-4 on the season and that “there were definitely enough things that we didn’t do to be able to win the game.”

Now, the Rams enter their Week 6 bye, McVay said Los Angeles needs to be able to take a step back and figure out if they can “finish games and play consistently throughout.”

“You look at it, we’re a 1-4 football team [and] three of those four losses come down to one possession games,” McVay said.

But despite starting 1-4 for the first time under McVay, who was hired in 2017, the message in the locker room took a more positive spin:

“It’s things that can be fixed very easily, but it’s things that we keep saying … can be fixed easily and we haven’t done it yet,” rookie outside linebacker Jared Verse said.

Though the Rams sit in last place in the NFC West through five games, Verse said it still feels like there’s time to turn the season around and make the playoffs.

“This isn’t college or anything like that where it’s a short season, you only get 12 games or anything like that,” Verse said. “It’s a long season. You’ve got a lot of time to turn anything around. I think it has to start now though.

“It should have started a while ago, but now it has to be a very big emphasis.”

Well, can the Rams turn it around and go on another playoff run? Here’s a closer look:

Key players need to return from injuries

For the first two weeks of the season, the Rams were hit hard by injures: wide receiver Puka Nacua (PCL sprain), guard Steve Avila (MCL sprain) and tackle Joe Noteboom (high ankle sprain) in Week 1 and then wide receiver Cooper Kupp (ankle sprain), guard Jonah Jackson (shoulder) and safety John Johnson III (shoulder) in Week 2.

The Rams will not get that whole group back right after the bye, but McVay said Monday that Los Angeles is hopeful Kupp can play against the Las Vegas Raiders.

McVay pointed out on Monday that one of the differences in the 2023 team that went on a run after the bye week was that the group was relatively healthy, which allowed the team to “work with the same group of guys” for the majority of the season.

The Rams haven’t had that luxury this season — and they may not be able to wait as they’re already in a 1-4 hole.

Still, if Kupp can return in Week 7, that should be a big boost for the offense. In the less than two games he played to start the season, Kupp had 18 catches for 147 yards and a touchdown.

In Sunday’s loss to the Packers, quarterback Matthew Stafford struggled to throw down the field. According to ESPN Research, Stafford was 5-of-13 for 99 yards and an interception on throws of 10 air yards or more.

Stafford was even worse on throws of 20 air yards or more, finishing 1-of-7 with an interception.

The return of Kupp and, eventually, Nacua should help Stafford significantly.

Stafford needs protection in order to stay healthy

One of the biggest differences in this team and the one hit by injuries in 2022 is that Stafford has been healthy. But while he hasn’t missed time this season — he’s played every offensive snap — he has been hit hard. Through five games, Stafford has been sacked 16 times, including three times by the Packers on Sunday.

And while McVay said on Monday that he doesn’t expect Stafford to miss time, the quarterback is dealing with back soreness after the hits he took in that game.

“This guy’s been playing for a long time,” McVay said. “He’s as tough as it gets. He took some shots yesterday. He’s taken some shots this year and throughout the course of his career.

“I think he just had a little bit of back soreness and it’s something that we want to monitor is all I was really getting at. I didn’t want to make it too big of a deal because we don’t expect it to be something that does limit his ability to participate in practice when we do get back either.”

The Rams should lean on Kyren Williams, again

When the Rams made their run from 3-6 after their Week 10 bye a year ago, they were led by Stafford and running back Kyren Williams, both who were returning from injuries. Williams was on injured reserve from Weeks 7-11 with an ankle injury and Stafford missed a game and a half in Weeks 8 and 9 with a thumb injury.

Williams had a fumble in Sunday’s loss to the Packers, but has been a bright spot for this offense that has missed Kupp and Nacua. Williams has 360 rushing yards on 95 carries. He has seven touchdowns (six rushing, one receiving) this season and has scored a rushing touchdown in eight straight games dating back to last season.

“I’ve been really proud of Kyren,” McVay said. “He’s so competitive, his spirit [and] the way he goes about it. I love it. Obviously, he’s such a great competitor. The one thing he’ll look at is putting the ball on the ground, but you look at the amount of free hitters that he ended up getting positive yardage with yesterday, short yardage [and] tough red zone running.

“[If] we can get everybody to start playing like him, we’ll be in good shape. I love what Kyren Williams has done.”

No one is running away with NFC West

Perhaps the biggest reason to be optimistic about a 2023-like run after the bye week is that despite being 1-4, the division isn’t out of reach. All four teams lost in Week 5 and the Seattle Seahawks sit atop the NFC West at just 3-2.

The Rams have played the second-toughest schedule through five weeks: losses to the Detroit Lions (3-1), Arizona Cardinals (2-3), Chicago Bears (3-2) and Packers (3-2) and a victory over the San Francisco 49ers (2-3). It will get a little easier going forward, as the Rams’ have the 13th-ranked strength of schedule remaining, according to ESPN’s FPI rankings.

In comparison, when the Rams went 7-1 to end the regular season and make the playoffs last year, they had the 19th most difficult schedule from their Week 10 bye to the end of the season, according to ESPN Research.

And while the Rams aren’t out of it, their chances, according to ESPN’s FPI analysis, are slim. The FPI rankings have the Rams with a 9.6% chance to make the playoffs and a 7.2% chance to win the NFC West.