My first bet: Early picks for NFL Week 9

Week 9 of the 2024 NFL season features 15 games as contenders begin to separate themselves. Across the league, teams are beginning to make their claim for one of the 14 playoff spots that will be available come January while the Buffalo Bills (-2000 to win AFC East) and Kansas City Chiefs (-5000 to win AFC West) already have a stronghold on their respective divisions.

Week 9 opens up with an AFC matchup between the Houston Texans (6-2) and New York Jets (2-6) on Thursday. The Sunday slate features a number of infringing games including the Green Bay Packers and Detroit Lions in an NFC North tilt. The Minnesota Vikings welcome the Indianapolis Colts to U.S. Bank Stadium on “Sunday Night Football” and the final game of the week features Baker Mayfield and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers against Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs on “Monday Night Football.”

Our team takes an early look at Week 9 odds to find value before lines move later in the week:

Odds current as of publish time, courtesy of ESPN BET

Joe Fortenbaugh’s first bet: Cleveland Browns-Los Angeles Chargers UNDER 40.5 points

Last week: Cardinals (+3.5) at Dolphins. Line closed at Dolphins -4.5. Cardinals won 28-27.

Forty is the second-most key number when it comes to betting NFL totals, so let’s lock in a price of 40.5 now before the impending move. The Chargers travel to Cleveland with a defense that ranks third in efficiency and fourth in EPA, not to mention an offense that ranks dead-last in the NFL in pace. Any wonder why the Chargers are 6-1 to the under this season, with those seven contests averaging a grand total of just 31.8 points per game? The total here is a bit inflated because we just saw a Jameis Winston-led Browns offense hang 29 points on the Baltimore Ravens. Don’t read too much into that, considering that game was a serious flat spot for a Baltimore squad that had just played on Monday night.

Tyler Fulghum’s first bet: Los Angeles Rams to win the NFC West (+500)

After a 1-4 start to the season, the Rams have life. They’ve won back-to-back games in five days to jump to 3-4, which is only a half-game back of first in the division. The other three teams are 4-4, but the Rams currently have a win over the odds-on favorite, San Francisco 49ers (-125). The pricing on the NFC West should be a lot closer. Los Angeles just got WRs Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua back from injury, and it’s no coincidence that the offense had their best game with Matthew Stafford having his full complement of offensive options. More reinforcements are coming in the form of two starting offensive linemen in Steve Avila and Jonah Jackson. The young defense is playing better every week due to the ascending young talent on the defensive line as well. Jared Verse is a legitimate candidate for Defensive Rookie of the Year. Don’t forget, Sean McVay’s team started 3-6 last year, before surging to a 10-7 record. We could see something similar again this year, and with San Francisco struggling with injuries, the door is open for this long-shot bet.

Anita Marks’ first bet: New England Patriots-Tennessee Titans UNDER 37.5 points

Last week: Packers (-4.5) at Jaguars. Line closed at Packers -3.5. Packers won 30-27.

We may be getting two backup quarterbacks for this Week 9 matchup. With Drake Maye in concussion protocol and Will Levis dealing with an injury. Jacoby Brissett and Mason Rudolph won’t light up the scoreboard if that’s the case. There is a significant difference in points scored from Maye to Brissett: Maye pushes the ball downfield and Brisset plays game manager. The Titans’ defense is better than what we saw in Week 8 — giving up 52 points to the Lion — and the Pats’ offense averages less than 17 points per game with Brissett at QB. That’s the same with the Titans, even with Levis under center.

Seth Walder’s first bet: Detroit Lions to win NFC North (-135)

Last week: Bills to win AFC East (-700). Bills are now -2000 to win AFC East.

The Lions are the best squad in a three-team race for this division, by quite a lot, in FPI’s view — the model makes Detroit more than a field goal better than both the Packers and Vikings. The Lions have a half-game lead in the division and also now have a key advantage over each of their opponents: They’ve already beaten the Vikings in Minnesota and now will face the Packers at a time when Jordan Love is banged up after he left Sunday’s win over the Jaguars with a groin injury. It’s possible, of course, that injury could have a longer impact on Green Bay, too. As for Minnesota, I’m skeptical they’ll be able to keep pace with Detroit given that their success has been driven by defense, which is less predictable from week-to-week. (They only rank 14th in EPA per play on offense.) Plus, I want to bet on the team whose offensive playcalling is so deep they can afford to pull out a David Montgomery passing touchdown even against the Titans.

Andre Snellings’ first bet: Washington Commanders (-3) over New York Giants

Last week: Broncos (-7.5) vs. Panthers. Line closed at Broncos (-12.5). Broncos won 28-14.

If Jayden Daniels is available, and his ability to get through a full game against the Bears just a week after his injury suggests he should be, then the Commanders are significantly better than the Giants. Daniels and the Commanders’ offense have improved in a major way since they defeated the Giants by three points in the second game of the season. In his first two NFL games, Daniels’ Commanders averaged 20.5 points per game and the team went 1-1. In the five games after, the Commanders went 4-1 with an average scoring margin of 16.0 PPG while averaging 35.4 PPG. Daniels’ injury seemingly brought them back to earth a bit against a tough Bears defense, but with another week to recover and potentially practice Daniels should be closer to himself in Week 9. According to FPI, the Commanders should be favored by six points this week instead of three, so getting in before the line moves lets you take advantage before the spread moves up over a field goal.

Pamela Maldonado: Chicago Bears UNDER 8.5 wins

Last week: Navy (+12.5) vs. Notre Dame. Line closed at Notre Dame -14.5. Notre Dame won 51-14.

The Bears (4-3) face several challenging opponents in their remaining games, including the Lions (twice), 49ers, Vikings (twice), and Packers. Chicago had the easiest schedule through six games and has the hardest remaining schedule ahead of them. After a loss to Washington, it could be difficult for the Bears to rack up enough wins to clear this mark. Although the Bears’ defense has been solid in some areas, they’ve had issues creating consistent pressure on opposing quarterbacks, which could be a problem against high-powered offenses remaining on schedule. Injuries to starting offensive linemen could impact the team’s performance.