Aaron Rodgers looks to defy odds in Year 2 with Jets

SANTA CLARA, Calif. — “Watch this.“

New York Jets quarterback Aaron Rodgers delivered that two-word heads-up to his own defense during a practice early in training camp. Feeling frisky, he called his shot in Ruthian fashion, then made it come to life with a rollout and no-look pass across the field to wide receiver Garrett Wilson.

“It was one of those things, we were like, ‘Dang, he has still got some tricks up his sleeve,'” said linebacker Quincy Williams, recalling one of the many summer moments that left teammates and coaches shaking their heads.

Rodgers has been acting that way for a year, telling the world to watch him defy conventional norms. The NFL’s oldest player (40) is back from a left Achilles tear, hellbent on proving he can do what no one has done.

The future Hall of Famer makes his Jets re-debut Monday night (8:15 p.m. ET, ABC/ESPN/ESPN+) against the San Francisco 49ers at Levi’s Stadium, 364 days after his devastating injury on the fourth snap of the 2023 season. His return is one of the most anticipated moments of the NFL season.

Appreciating the drama, Rodgers said he might reveal “a little smirk” for the cameras after the fourth snap. After that, it’s game-face only.

“I think you always have something to prove,” he said. “It just kind of changes who you’re proving that to, I think, the older you get.”

“WATCH WHAT I do.“ — Rodgers, last Sept. 15, two days after Achilles surgery

Let’s talk history.

Rodgers will become the 22nd quarterback in the Super Bowl era (since 1966) to attempt a regular-season pass after his 40th birthday, according to ESPN Stats & Information.

Now zoom in a little bit closer. Of that group, five started at least 10 games as quadragenarians — Tom Brady, Warren Moon, Vinny Testaverde, Drew Brees and Brett Favre. The others were mainly hanging on at that point in their careers.

One last zoom: Of the five, only Brady and Brees had winning records in their age-41 season (and beyond, in Brady’s case). This is what Rodgers, who turns 41 on Dec. 2, is attempting.

And he’s coming off an injury that has ruined careers, raising the degree of difficulty. In his case, it prompted fleeting thoughts of retirement.

Nationally, Rodgers’ comeback was one of the hottest topics during the run-up to the season, with everyone from Hall of Famers to former teammates to talking heads offering opinions. His season-ending tear occurred on the fourth snap in Week 1, one of the most infamous injuries in sports history.

His legacy could be riding on the outcome, as Rodgers attempts to join Brady and Peyton Manning as the only quarterbacks to win a Super Bowl with two different teams. Despite historic passing numbers — he needs only 945 yards to become the ninth player to reach 60,000 — Rodgers is knocked for having one ring. Ditto, the Jets, who are counting on him to end 55 years of championship-less misery.

“Things can fall off a cliff at the back end of your career, so I hope he didn’t lose any magic he would’ve had last year,” former Green Bay Packers teammate John Kuhn said. “But I will say this: If there is some magic left in him, the motivation he’s going to have is going to be some of the biggest motivation he’s ever had in his career.”

Moon, a Pro Football Hall of Famer who has been following Rodgers’ career for more than 20 years, is one of the few people walking this planet who enjoyed NFL success in his 40s — a 25-touchdown, 3,678-yard season for the Seattle Seahawks in 1997, resulting in a Pro Bowl at 41. Speaking from experience, he believes it’s the legs — not the arm — that fade first. He learned the importance of lower-body mechanics in a book by former MLB pitching great Nolan Ryan, who played until he was 46.

“He still has that pop on his ball,” Moon said recently of Rodgers. “Now it’s just a matter of his reaction time. Can he get away from danger the way he used to? He was pretty awesome when he was in Green Bay, where he could get outside the pocket and make things happen. Those are the things that start to leave you, some of that athleticism. You’re seeing that in Russell Wilson now.”

Bill Parcells, another Hall of Famer, coached older quarterbacks, including Testaverde. He knows Father Time can be cruel and unforgiving. Assessing Rodgers from afar, he noted the long layoff; he hasn’t played a complete game in 20 months. “That’s a lifetime in football,” Parcells said.

“That’s the thing I think is challenging,” he said. “No matter how good you are, no matter how much success you’ve had, there’s still that little time where you’re [wondering]. You think you can, but you have to prove it to yourself. It has to be demonstrated ability. Until he does that — maybe he doesn’t have any doubts, I don’t know — but human nature seems to say there might be a few.”

Perhaps no one can relate to Rodgers better than Testaverde, who ruptured his Achilles while playing for the Jets in 1999, two months before his 36th birthday. He felt Rodgers’ pain last Sept. 11 at MetLife Stadium, where the four-time MVP went down on the fourth snap. Testaverde was in a private box, overcome with flashbacks.

“In the back of my mind, until I was going full speed, I was always thinking, ‘Is this going to happen again?'” Testaverde said recently, recalling his own plight. “Once you go through some of the things, start running and make some of the cuts and some of the throws, you’re like, ‘All right, I’m back. Let’s get going.'”

The next season, Testaverde started every game and attempted a league-high 590 passes. He said there were no ill effects from his injury (like Rodgers, he tore his left Achilles), but he did lead the NFL with 25 interceptions.

The chances of Rodgers tearing the same Achilles are about 2%, no greater than if it hadn’t been previously injured, according to Dr. Stephen Silver, chair of sports medicine and orthopedics at Hackensack University Medical Center in New Jersey.

“I do not have any worries or issues about him returning to play quarterback this season,” said Silver, who isn’t Rodgers’ doctor. “… At this point, my worry is more, not only about Aaron Rodgers, but anyone who wants to play in the NFL at 40 years old, turning 41.”

“WATCH ME” — RODGERS’ vanity plate on the orthopedic scooter used after surgery.

And he put on a show in training camp, especially on the days fans attended. Facing the New York Giants in a joint practice, he was in such a groove that, at one point, he told Garrett Wilson, “Hey, G, just run by his ass. I’ll throw a go ball.”

Indeed, Wilson ran by cornerback Nick McCloud. Rodgers, miked up that day, launched a 55-yard strike for a touchdown — a throw straight out of 2021, his last MVP season.

“He looked f—ing good,” remarked one Giants official, who doesn’t expect a Rodgers falloff this season. “Nope. He looks like Aaron Rodgers.”

A former NFC general manager said, “He’s an anomaly. He’s Aaron Rodgers. He’s special. He’s Joe Montana, Tom Brady. When you’re of that ilk, it can still happen [at his age]. But it’s an aberration. It’s not the norm.”

Hall of Famer Brett Favre spoke glowingly of his former teammate.

“There’s probably not a better playmaker starting in the league right now — even at his age,” Favre said in a recent interview with the Infinity Sports Network. “You throw the age out — the number — and look at how he moves and gets rid of the ball. His football knowledge, he’s got the highest football IQ of anybody I’ve ever been around. I expect that [the Jets] compete for not only the division championship, but the conference championship.”

Testaverde said Rodgers, surrounded by dynamic skill players such as Wilson and running back Breece Hall, will be “as good as he’s ever been.” Moon echoed that sentiment, saying Rodgers will benefit from an improved offensive line.

Many give Rodgers the benefit of the doubt because of everything he has accomplished across two decades, but the “what have you done for me lately?” crowd points to 2022, his last full season. In his final season with the Packers, he was pedestrian.

He finished 26th in Total QBR (41.3), easily the worst of his career. He went the entire season without a 300-yard passing day. In fact, his slump is up to 22 straight games, by far his longest drought.

Was an injured throwing thumb the reason for his falloff in 2022? Was it an inexperienced receiving corps (his first year without All-Pro Davante Adams)? Was he worn down mentally from a strained relationship with Packers management?

Or was it the early signs of a great quarterback on the decline?

A former AFC personnel executive predicted Rodgers “won’t be a disaster [in 2024], but I don’t think he’ll be a top-five player anymore.” The executive believes age and injury will claim some of his athleticism, and that he will be hesitant to hold the ball because he wants to avoid contact. That, he surmised, will prompt defenses to overplay the short routes and choke the field on him.

Another potential concern: The Jets open the season with three games in 10 days, a taxing stretch for any player, let alone a 40-year-old quarterback. Rodgers did it early in his career, but he has accumulated quite a few miles on his odometer since then.

From all indications, Rodgers remains a gifted thrower, but the NFL isn’t a Punt, Pass & Kick competition. The hallmarks of his game are his quick reflexes, uncanny anticipation and ability to escape. In theory, those attributes could be dulled by age and injury. Even Jets offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett, one of his closest confidantes, acknowledged, “He is a little bit older, so he has lost a little bit of the speed he used to have.”

“Your body doesn’t do the same things at 40 as it did at 30,” Moon said. “You don’t react as fast, you lose some of your athleticism, you don’t heal as fast. All those different things happen as you get older. I know Aaron takes care of himself, but then again, he has the major injury — the Achilles tendon — he’s coming back from. I’m interested to see how he bounces back.”

Kuhn, his teammate of nine years in Green Bay, believes Rodgers can write a Peyton Manning-like ending to his career as he pushes back the inevitable sunset to win one last showdown.

“He’s coming back from an injury that no one ever came back from at that age, so he’s got multiple different things to prove to himself and to do for his own right and to make his own inner peace,” Kuhn said. “I think those motivating factors are going to go a long way to bringing out the best in Aaron Rodgers this year.”

No matter how he plays, we know what football fans and others will continue to do.

Watch him.