Bo Nix breakout? What’s next for the Broncos’ rookie QB

DENVER — Denver Broncos coach Sean Payton often speaks of analytics — how he digests numbers and uses them to mold the long list of decisions he must make at every stage of game preparation. But those numbers haven’t been kind to Broncos rookie quarterback Bo Nix so far.

The Broncos are 3-2 after their 34-18 victory over the Las Vegas Raiders at Empower Field at Mile High on Sunday, their third straight win after an 0-2 start to the season. It marked their first victory over the Raiders since 2019 and their first game scoring at least 34 points since 2022. But it was also the third game this season in which Nix didn’t have a completion of 30 or more yards.

Payton wasn’t focused on that last figure, though.

“We start with lead your team to wins and lead your team to the end zone,” Payton said when asked for his latest assessment of Nix. “And I thought he did a good job of that; he made some really good plays with his feet and he’s hard to sack. … I thought he played well.”

While Sunday was marked by an animated on-camera exchange between Payton and Nix, the coach has steadfastly defended and supported his rookie signal-caller since he made the 24-year-old the starter in August. And seven days after Nix struggled in the rain at MetLife Stadium against the New York Jets — he had minus-7 passing yards at halftime — Nix looked more comfortable than he has at any point of his five-game NFL career. He completed 19 of 27 passes for 206 yards and two touchdowns without an interception, while also running for a touchdown. It was the clearest example of the vision that Payton has laid out for Nix.

Payton has repeatedly said that Nix was ready for the challenge as long as those around the QB did their job as well. Sunday’s win saw everyone pitch in, as a franchise-record 11 players caught passes from Nix while the defense forced the Raiders to bench starting quarterback Gardner Minshew and scored on a 100-yard interception return by cornerback Pat Surtain II. Surtain had a second INT, and Riley Moss grabbed one, too.

As wide receiver Courtland Sutton has said in the past: “Bo is going to be alright, we just have to do what we have to do with him. … He’s going to be alright, you’ll see.”

The Broncos are still 28th in the league in total offense (270.6 yards per game), tied for 22nd in scoring (19.2 points per game), 28th in passing (163.8 YPG) and 30th in passing yards per attempt (5.2). Nix has just two completions for more than 30 yards so far and is near the bottom of statistical categories such as touchdown passes (three, tied 29th), completion percentage (61.8%, 25th), yards per completion (8.5, 31st) and QBR (43.0, 25th). So there was reason to be a little concerned with the first-rounder’s early returns.

But Sunday was prime evidence of Payton’s theory that if the collective is strong enough, Nix can grow into the rest and the Broncos can still win games.

One opposing general manager said: “[Nix] does a lot of things how Sean wants them done and he’s shown some toughness. The accuracy worries you a bit because he’s not pushing the ball downfield much and still the accuracy isn’t always there … but the rookies who play at that position have to be ready to fight through it because there will be plenty of things to fight through.”

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Bo Nix and Sean Payton get into argument on the sideline

Bo Nix and Sean Payton have a heated conversation on the sideline during the Broncos-Raiders game.

Payton has consistently lauded Nix’s willingness to battle through every obstacle in his path, whether it be the first half against the Jets or the two-interception performances in each of his first two starts. Payton constantly gets asked about Nix’s confidence, as the offense still looks low-impact and balky at times, and the coach keeps offering that it might be the one thing he doesn’t have to worry about with his rookie QB.

“At some point we’ll stop with the confidence [questions],” Payton said after the Week 4 win over the Jets. “The kid is confident. … I should send him out to dinner with every one of you and you’ll see.”

For his part, Nix has been unwavering in an I’ll-get-through-it sort of way. On Sunday, the first rookie the start a season opener for the Broncos since John Elway sported a throwback Elway jersey after the win, again unafraid of the comparisons and the questions that come with the job.

So what’s next? The Los Angeles Chargers, who will face the Broncos this upcoming Sunday in Denver, will surely be another test for Nix. In their first four games — Los Angeles is coming off a bye this past weekend — the Chargers allowed opposing quarterbacks to complete four passes on throws that were thrown at least 20 yards downfield, and opponents had attempted only six such passes against them. Chargers opponents’ average yards per target (5.1) is also the lowest in the league, and their three passing touchdowns allowed are tied for fourth-fewest.

All eyes will be on whether Nix can build on his strong showing against the Raiders and put up numbers against that Chargers defense, continuing his development in Year 1 and showing promise for the future.