Buying or Selling Top Contenders for College Football Playoff in 2024

Although only one national champion can be crowned, plenty of college football teams will be genuine contenders in the chase for a title.

Plus, beginning in the 2024 season, the College Football Playoff will expand to a 12-team tournament. Never before has there been as much access to a potential title in the Football Bowl Subdivision.

At the same time, though, several well-respected preseason teams are destined to fall considerably short of the CFP.

The trick, as always, is separating them from the contenders.

According to DraftKings, 15 teams hold +4000 odds or shorter to win the 2024 season’s national championship. These buy/sell decisions—while I’d like to reserve final judgment for August—are effectively a list of personal expectations for those programs in the fall.

Texas A&M Aggies (+4000)

The first season of the Mike Elko era should feature some marked improvement on the defensive side. Conner Weigman has been a promising quarterback when healthy, and the schedule is far less grueling than it could have been in the new-look SEC. The skill-position group is a question mark, though. There’s a good bit of talent, but nobody has been more than a complementary player so far in college.

Verdict: Sell

Tennessee Volunteers (+3500)

While the excitement around new quarterback Nico Iamaleava is warranted, Tennessee has a razor-thin margin for error. The regular-season slate includes games at Oklahoma, home to Alabama and at Georgia. Unless the Vols avoid an 0-3 mark in those contests, they probably cannot afford a single loss in nine other games.

Verdict: Sell

Missouri Tigers (+3000)

Missouri, conversely, has a favorable opening month before a manageable SEC schedule. The key for the Tigers is retooling a defense that boasted five NFL draft picks and has a new coordinator. Behind an experienced offense, however, they are a decent value comparatively.

Verdict: Buy

Clemson Tigers (+3000)

Mathematically speaking, getting to the CFP isn’t half of the battle. Still, you can’t win a national title if you’re not among the 12 qualifiers, and Clemson resides in what’s been a friendly ACC lately. The offense needs to surge in the second year of quarterback Cade Klubnik and coordinator Garrett Riley, but the team has a more attractive path to the playoff. And that’s half of the metaphorical battle.

Verdict: Buy

Florida State Seminoles (+2500)

You can basically copy and paste the rationale for Clemson with Florida State, the reigning ACC champion. After its inglorious CFP snub in 2023, the Seminoles had to restock the roster this offseason and again landed a strong transfer class. Midseason road games against rival Miami and Notre Dame will be pivotal results for FSU.

Verdict: Buy

Michigan Wolverines (+2500)

It’s plausible that Michigan will remain an elite defensive team. My concern—and certainly not a unique one—is the Wolverines have to completely reconstruct the offense, and no position is more uncertain than quarterback. Sort of a big deal, no? Throw in regular-season clashes with potential preseason Top 5 teams Texas, Oregon and Ohio State, and the Wolverines’ road to a repeat title is full of obstacles.

Verdict: Sell

Notre Dame Fighting Irish (+2500)

What an ideal outlook for Notre Dame. Duke transfer Riley Leonard is a solid QB, and the Fighting Irish returned a few vital NFL-eligible stars on defense. The schedule is home-heavy and hugely favorable overall. Will it happen? Probably not. On paper, though, ND cannot be ignored.

Verdict: Buy

Penn State Nittany Lions (+2500)

An outstanding defense propelled Penn State to a 10-win record last season. The issue was the offense’s disappearing acts in the Nittany Lions’ two toughest games. So, can they change that in 2024? The good news is they avoid Michigan and Oregon, but I don’t expect the scoring attack to make a championship-caliber leap, especially after top receiver KeAndre Lambert-Smith transferred in the spring.

Verdict: Sell

Ole Miss Rebels (+1500)

In all likelihood, Ole Miss will start 6-0. The defining stretch probably begins in mid-October with a four-game run against LSU, Oklahoma, Arkansas and Georgia. Anything worse than a 2-2 clip, and the Rebels won’t be a contender. Win at least two, though, and a transfer-infused roster can lead Ole Miss to its first CFP appearance.

Verdict: Buy

LSU Tigers (+1500)

Were it not for Jayden Daniels being an electric player with All-American wideout Malik Nabers, LSU wouldn’t have won nine-regular season games in 2023. The defense—especially the secondary—was, um, underwhelming. Perhaps new coordinator Blake Baker will spark the unit, but I won’t be rushing onto the bandwagon since the offense presumably won’t be as lethal this season.

Verdict: Sell

Alabama Crimson Tide (+1400)

Kalen DeBoer’s introduction to the SEC is unkind. Alabama takes on Georgia, Tennessee, Missouri, LSU and Oklahoma, along with a trip to Wisconsin and a clash against rival Auburn. Without question, there’s a Nick Saban-fueled benefit of the doubt for Bama continuing to linger in my brain. While this is a tentative buy, the Crimson Tide’s offense could be electric with Jalen Milroe steering a DeBoer-led team.

Verdict: Buy

Oregon Ducks (+900)

So much of 2024 will be new at Oregon; new conference, new opponents, new QB, among plenty of other things. The mid-October home date against Ohio State is, right now, one of the season’s most anticipated games, too. But the Ducks will be highly respected with Oklahoma transfer Dillon Gabriel propelling the offense, and trips to Michigan and Wisconsin—though not painless—don’t seem terrible. Oregon should at least be a 10-win CFP team.

Verdict: Buy

Texas Longhorns (+700)

Whether the Horns defeat Michigan in early September is basically the lone question about if they’ll start 5-0. The following back-to-back against rival Oklahoma and top-ranked Georgia is an enormous two-week stretch, of course. Yet down the stretch, the schedule looks pretty nice. Kentucky and Texas A&M shouldn’t be taken for granted in late November, but Texas has a definite path to double-digit victories.

Verdict: Buy

Ohio State Buckeyes (+425)

Most attention, understandably, is on OSU’s quarterback competition. The reality is that if this veteran-laden defense plays to its potential, the Buckeyes won’t need to score many points anyway. Ohio State isn’t a lock to make the CFP, but it doesn’t feel far away.

Verdict: Buy

Georgia Bulldogs (+320)

Unlike a few recent years, the Dawgs have a brutal schedule. They open the season with Clemson and travel to Kentucky—a sneaky-difficult place to play—Alabama, Texas and Ole Miss in addition to hosting Auburn and rival Tennessee. But I can’t confidently make an argument against a Georgia roster that returns Carson Beck, bolstered the skill positions on offense and is always a terror on defense.

Verdict: Buy

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