College football breakthrough and bounce-back candidates for 2024

For the most part, what we believe in heading into a given season is what we previously believed at the end of the season. Take the preseason coaches poll released last week: Nine of this year’s top 11 teams finished in the top 10 last year. It also saw No. 2 Washington lose its head coach, coordinator, star quarterback and 20 of 22 starters from last year. Huskies no Ranked pretty high to start the season.

However, every year there are surprises. Last season wasn’t the sport’s most unpredictable year by any means, but only half of the preseason picks finished in the top 10. Two of the four College Football Playoff teams started outside the top 10 (albeit 11th and 12th). Missouri finished the season 11-2 and eighth, going 23-25 ​​over the past four years. Arizona finished just 10-3 and 11th 10-31 over the previous four seasons.

There are always unexpected successes and unexpected failures. Every year, one of the primary questions in the preseason is: Will teams that hit a big wave or a big stumble the previous year maintain their gains or rebound with strength?

That is the purpose of this piece. Last year, my six teams most likely to improve were Texas, Washington, Florida State and Kansas, which went a combined 31-17 to 48-8. The “Most Likely to Rebound” list wasn’t quite as demonstrative, but four of the six teams mentioned (Boston College, Colorado, Colorado State and Texas A&M) improved from a combined 12-36 to 23. -27.

Final preseason SP+ projections coming next week. But using last year’s numbers and general trends, we can begin to piece together the national picture. Which of the unexpected successes of 2023 could find more heights? Which of last year’s disappointments is more likely to return? Let’s take a look.