College Football Playoff rankings predictions: What the final CFP top 25 could look like

Conference championships are in the books, and we’re hours away from the final College Football Playoff Rankings. Before the CFP committee unveils the final rankings, I predict where the top 25 teams will land. 

UPDATE: Here are the final CFP rankings

The sixth of six CFP top 25 reveals happens on Sunday, Dec. 3 (here’s the full schedule). Ahead of the announcement, here’s a prediction of how the committee could rank its top 25 teams. Note that these are my predictions and mine alone. I take a look at head-to-head results, schedule strength, games against ranked teams and more to help rank the teams how I think the CFP committee will do so. You can read the CFP committee’s official protocols here.

College Football Playoff rankings predictions: Final Top 25 projections

These predictions are as of the conclusion of the ACC Championship Saturday, December 2. 

1. Michigan (13-0) | LW: 2 — Michigan won the Big Ten with another ranked win. If a win over Oregon the first time wasn’t enough to get Washington over Michigan, then it won’t be enough in a second go around.
2. Washington (13-0) | LW: 3 — Washington won the final Pac-12 title for the conference as we know it. The Huskies finish undefeated and will be in the playoff as the second seed.
3. Florida State (13-0) | LW: 4 — Florida State is an undefeated champion from the ACC. The Seminoles defense sent a statement in the ACC Championship game and the Seminoles are in.
4. Texas (12-1) | LW: 7 — Texas won the Big 12 title boosting its CFP odds. Thanks to a head-to-head win over SEC Champion Alabama, the Longhorns are in.
5. Alabama (12-1) | LW: 8 — The SEC misses out of the College Football Playoff for the first time because Alabama lost to Texas head-to-head. 
6. Georgia (12-1) | LW: 1 — Georgia has to rank behind Alabama in these rankings, but the Bulldogs will remain above the Buckeyes after a 12-0 start.
7. Ohio State (11-1) | LW: 6 —With Texas’ win, Ohio State’s College Football Playoff hopes disappeared. The Buckeyes miss out without a conference championship.
8. Oregon (11-2) | LW: 5 — Oregon falls to No. 8 after losing another close game to Washington. After the loss, the Ducks will be the top-ranked two-loss team.
9. Missouri (10-2) | LW: 9 — Missouri stays put after not playing in the postseason.
10. Penn State (10-2) | LW: 10 — Penn State stays put after not playing in the postseason.
11. Ole Miss (10-2) | LW: 11 — Ole Miss stays put after not playing in the postseason.
12. Oklahoma (10-2) | LW: 12 — Oklahoma stays put after not playing in the postseason.
13. LSU (9-3) | LW: 13 — LSU stays put after not playing in the postseason.
14. Arizona (9-3) | LW: 15 — Arizona moves up one spot after Louisville’s loss.
15. Louisville (10-3) | LW: 14 — Louisville falls one spot after back-to-back losses to close the season.
16. Notre Dame (9-3) | LW: 17 — Notre Dame moves up one spot after Iowa’s loss
17. NC State (9-3) | LW: 19 — NC State moves up two spots after Oklahoma State and Iowa’s losses.
18. Iowa (10-3) | LW: 16 — Iowa will rank above Liberty, after losing the Big Ten Championship, but the Hawkeyes will still fall below the other three-loss teams.
19.  Liberty (13-0) | LW: 24 — Liberty kept its undefeated record with a win in the C-USA championship game over New Mexico State 49-35. With Tulane losing, the Flames will get a New Year’s Six Bowl bid. A conference championship will also boost Liberty into the top 20 over four-loss teams.
20. Oregon State (8-4) | LW: 20 — Oregon State didn’t play, but it’ll rank above Oklahoma State because the CFP committee has been high on the Pac-12 all season.
21. Oklahoma State (9-4) | LW: 18 — Oklahoma State lost the Big 12 championship game, but with four-losses it’ll stay ranked. Also, a loss in a conference championship game won’t drop the Cowboys below three other four-loss teams.
22. Tennessee (8-4) | LW: 21 — Tennessee drops one spot as Liberty moves up.
23. Clemson (8-4) | LW: 23 — Clemson stays put after not playing in the postseason.
24. Kansas State (8-4) | LW: 25 — Kansas State moves up one spot after Tulane lost.
25. SMU (11-2) | LW: NR — SMU won the AAC with a ranked win so it’ll be ranked in the final CFP Poll. However, the Mustangs and their two losses won’t be enough to get a New Year’s Six Bowl berth.

New Team: SMU
Team to drop out: Tulane (22)

CFP🏆: College Football Playoff rankings release schedule

Notable College Football Playoff rankings questions

Will the SEC miss out?

Florida State, Texas and Alabama will all be in discussions for the final two spots in the College Football Playoff. 

Florida State is undefeated. Texas and Alabama are not.

Texas and Alabama both have one loss, but the Longhorns beat the Crimson Tide head-to-head in Tuscaloosa by multiple scores. 

By those two factors, the SEC could be left out of the playoffs, even with Alabama looking like a different team since that Texas loss.

UNDEFEATED TRACKER: Here’s a look at all of the undefeated FBS teams

Will Liberty get a New Year’s Six Bowl?

Liberty is the only ranked team not from the ACC, Big Ten, Big 12, SEC or Pac-12 that won a conference championship last week. However, the Flames have one of the worst strength of schedules by most accounts in the country. Will a poor strength of schedule allow a different team to get a New Year’s Six Bowl spot over an undefeated Liberty team?