The field of 68 is down to two teams and the NCAA men’s national championship game is set.
In a battle of top seeds, No. 1 Purdue will face No. 1 UConn in the NCAA Tournament title game on Monday.
UConn opens the game as 6-point favorites, per DraftKings Sportsbook.
The Boilermakers took care of business against No. 11 NC State in the Final Four Saturday, ending the Wolfpack’s miraculous Cinderella run. NC State kept things manageable through the first half and much of the second half, but Purdue used a 12-1 run to gain some breathing room late and win the game 63-50.
Now, the Boilermakers will play in the championship game for the first time since 1969, when they fell to UCLA.
The Huskies played a tight match with No. 4 Alabama in their Final Four matchup with the Crimson Tide keeping things close in the final minutes. UConn managed to use a plethora of runs to pull away and advance to the national championship with an 86-72 win.
Taking a look at Monday’s matchup, the obvious X-factor for Purdue is star center Zach Edey. He had 20 points and 12 rebounds on Saturday, continuing an outstanding March Madness run that has seen him average 28 points and 15.4 rebounds per game. The 7’4″ senior had 40 points against Tennessee in the Elite Eight.
Edey is adept at getting to the free-throw line, averaging 11.2 attempts per game in the tournament. That can help Purdue get some easy points at the line, but it can also get the Huskies in foul trouble and perhaps force them to pull some of their starters earlier than they would like.
Purdue’s offense runs primarily through Edey, but the Boilermakers’ perimeter will need to step up to keep up with UConn’s offensive firepower.
Purdue’s second-leading scorer, Braden Smith, has had a relatively quiet tournament averaging 8.4 points per game. Smith shot 43.9 percent from deep during the regular season, but that number has slipped to 34.8 in tournament play. If Smith finds himself open, he’ll need to hit his shots to keep Purdue in the game.
The Boilermakers will obviously have a giant in the paint in Edey, but UConn has one on its side in Donovan Clingan. The senior center, who stands 7’2″, is an elite rim protector, averaging 2.5 blocks per game this season. Edey has been dominant in the paint all tournament, but he hasn’t seen a defender like Clingan yet.
But as previously mentioned, Edey is tremendous at drawing fouls. Even college basketball’s best defenders fall victim trying to defend Edey, and it will be key for Clingan to avoid foul trouble. If the Huskies have to put Clingan on the bench, Edey will have a field day around the rim.
On offense, UConn’s best scorers will need to come through after being somewhat inconsistent throughout the tournament. The team’s leading scorer, Tristen Newton, had big performances in the Round of 32 and Sweet 16, but had just five points in the Elite Eight. In Saturday’s Final Four matchup, he had 12 points.
Stephon Castle has had a decent tournament so far, but has also been inconsistent with 14, 7, 16, 2 and 21-point performances throughout the tournament. Newton, Castle and the rest of the Huskies will need to have big performances to take down the Boilermakers.
A high-scoring affair seems like a given in this year’s national championship. UConn has the top adjusted offensive efficiency in KenPom with Purdue holding the No. 3 adjusted offensive efficiency.
The Huskies and Boilermakers have arguably been the two best teams this season, and it’s only fitting the two teams meet in the national championship.
Will UConn repeat as the champ or will Purdue claim its first title in program history? We will find out Monday at 9:20 p.m. ET.
Prediction: UConn 84, Purdue 78
