Fantasy baseball Monday advice: Be bold with Brayan Bello

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Note: This file will be updated with any overnight pitching changes or weather-related game postponements, along with the addition of the latest MLB game odds as of the indicated time of publication.

Look out Bello!

Boston Red Sox RHP Brayan Bello has pitched well since the break, posting a 3.42 ERA and a 1.18 WHIP. Before the break, Bello checked in with a 5.32 ERA and a 1.47 WHIP. While there are indications that Bello has made improvements, it’s also clear that he was victimized over the first half. Specifically, Bello’s BABIP has dropped from .328 to .260 and his LOB% has risen from 69.3 to 78.4. Bello is also yielding fewer homers.

A high BABIP alongside a high HR rate isn’t always indicative of bad luck — there is usually some bad pitching contributing to the poor outcomes. Still, Bello’s pre-break 4.05 xFIP compared to only 3.83 since suggests much of Bello’s improvement has been due to regression.

An area Bello has improved upon is strikeouts. His velocity is up half a tick, resulting in a few more swings-and-misses, which has translated to more punchouts. Bello’s pitch mix remains unchanged, suggesting that he’s improving his sequencing and command. The decrease in homers also reflects better command.

Unlike some young arms, Bello averages a respectable 90 pitches a game. His ratios may be adversely affected by being tasked with staying in games when other similar hurlers would be removed, but this “no kid gloves” treatment should help Bello in the long run.

On Monday, Bello (26.6% rostered in ESPN leagues) is the second-highest ranked pitcher on the card. He’ll take the hill at Citi Field against the New York Mets. The road affair is a big park upgrade for Bello. Fenway Park is second to only Coors Field in terms of embellishing runs, while Citi Field suppresses scoring more than any other venue.

Through the first five months of the season, the Mets offense when facing righties at home is league-average across the board. It doesn’t portend to be a huge strikeout night for Bello, but he should again rack up the innings, likely resulting in his 11th quality start.

Everything else you need to know for Monday

• Congratulations to those making the playoffs in head-to-head leagues. For ESPN leagues, Monday is the opening of Playoff Round 1, which runs from Sep 2-15. The 11-game Labor Day slate commences at 2:10 p.m. ET with the first of seven matinees.

• There aren’t many strong streaming candidates to open the fantasy week, with one of the better options opposing Bello in what should be a low-scoring affair. Luis Severino (26.4% rostered) gets the nod for the Mets. Severino has been inconsistent in his first season in Flushing. He has had 10 quality starts, but has also surrendered at least four runs on 10 separate occasions. Like the Mets, Boston’s offense has been better on the road, but they strike out at a much higher clip. Severino has the repertoire to take advantage, despite posting a below average strikeout rate.

• Simeon Woods Richardson is one of the reasons the Minnesota Twins still have playoff aspirations despite suffering many injuries, particularly to their hitting. While the hurler’s record is only 5-3, his club has won 15 of his 23 starts. On Monday, the Twins visit the Tampa Bay Rays. Tampa Bay’s offense has fallen to be the second-least productive lineup with a righty on the hill, while also fanning at the fifth-highest clip in those games.

• Oakland Athletics SP Osvaldo Bido (15.7% rostered) should garner some AL Pitcher on the Month consideration for August after recording a 1.55 ERA and an 0.79 WHIP in five starts, covering 29 innings. He rung up a palatable 28 batters, though his nine walks are a tad excessive. It’s Bido’s strikeout ability which should take center stage on Monday when he challenges the Seattle Mariners at home. The visiting Mariners continue to lead the league in strikeout rate.

Starting pitcher rankings for Monday