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Four weeks into the fantasy football season, with bye weeks upon us, a growing list of injured players and a potential paradigm shift in how NFL teams are playing offense, we asked our analysts to participate in a mock re-draft (E+), as if the season were to start fresh today. The 10 participants have logged plenty of hours in the mock draft room during the preseason, having taken part in the preseason Mock Draft Project, but drafting in October feels new even to these veterans.
Drafting, in order, were Daniel Dopp, Matt Bowen, Tristan H. Cockcroft, Tyler Fulghum, Liz Loza, Stephania Bell, Field Yates, Eric Karabell, Eric Moody and Mike Clay. At the conclusion of the draft, which was held Tuesday morning, we asked each of them to provide their biggest takeaway. Here’s what they had to say.
Did CMC go too early?
Stephania Bell: My main takeaway was how challenging it felt to do this draft just one month into the season, given how much the landscape has been influenced by injuries and player utilization. How do you value players where there is still so much uncertainty about their status?
Take, for example, the fall of the preseason consensus No. 1 pick. Whereas it was pretty universally accepted that Christian McCaffrey would be gone at 1.01 in August drafts, I found myself squarely on the sideline, waiting to see how far he would drop before someone finally selected him. Given my general risk-averse status and knowing how injuries behave, I was largely in “avoid mode” on ailing players, except for T.J. Hockenson who is returning soon and whose recovery has been overwhelmingly positive.
Only one thing remained consistent for me. I still hate drafting in the middle of the group and much prefer the turns. Got sniped multiple times.
Did CMC go too late?
Field Yates: While I could offer many thoughts on a more macro level of this exercise, I wanted to hyper-focus on the most intriguing player in the entire draft: Christian McCaffrey, my seventh round pick. Seventh round! Think about that for just a moment, as it speaks to how unusual of a situation we are in right now with the player who went first overall in a vast majority of drafts prior to the season.
I pondered McCaffrey multiple times in the rounds prior to actually picking him, and my patience tank was empty by the time Round 7 began. In a world where McCaffrey returns in the next two to four weeks (reminder: he is eligible to play as soon as Week 6), this pick could well prove to be the steal of the draft. But despite interest in the matter from innumerable parties, pinpointing exactly when CMC will return is impossible. For the sake of everyone — no one more so than McCaffrey himself — I hope his return is in the near horizon.
CMC was never an option
Eric Karabell: Well, I never thought about securing McCaffrey, because I was hoping to take his thriving backup Jordan Mason. I finally did so in Round 6. The league’s No. 2 rusher is my third running back, and he may be a total steal. I want to be optimistic about injured players returning to full health and thriving, but let’s be realistic. Stephania taught me about injury being a solid predictor of more injury — see, I was listening! — and McCaffrey certainly has a track record for missing games. Even if he returns in October, can he stay on the field? Invest in healthy football players who are playing football, and if Mason is pushed back to fantasy obscurity, deal with it in a month.
As for the rest of the draft, I did my usual thing of piling on the flex-eligibles early and often, seeing which quarterbacks fell. It is amazing how much has changed in a month. Welcome to the team, 13th-round pick Joe Burrow and, this year’s top veteran QB surprise leading the league in TD passes, the legit Sam Darnold, in Round 14.
Facts overpower feelings at this time of year
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Liz Loza: Ugh. What a slog. Drafting four weeks into the thing is not nearly as fun as four weeks out from it. I believe that’s largely because upside shrinks tremendously as we move down the draft board. Any hope or optimism about a player “popping” in the later rounds is diminished by actual data rather than being buoyed by coach speak and community scuttlebutt.
For example, rather than wistfully selecting Khalil Shakir in the 14th round like I did all preseason — he went in the ninth between Xavier Worthy and Rachaad White this time — I instead threw a rusty dart at Mike Williams. That’s not nearly as exciting. Though, it was refreshing to see a healthy balance of veteran running backs as well as rookie wideouts all climb into starting positions. It’s interesting that Malik Nabers and Aaron Jones can both headline their respective positions on a contending squad at the top of October.
But … It’s too early to totally throw away preseason evaluations
Tristan H. Cockcroft: Are we too rigid in our preseason player evaluations, but too loose with them in-season? The way we addressed tight ends stands out, as Travis Kelce, Sam LaPorta and Mark Andrews went 24th, 34th and 45th on average during the preseason, but McBride was the first to go at No. 51 this time around. To put that into perspective, the last time there wasn’t a tight end with a top-30 overall ADP was 2011. It signals tight end being a soft spot to universally target for buy-low trades.
Breece Hall is another example. The No. 5 overall pick in ADP, Hall was fifth in scoring among running backs through three weeks, had a bad Week 4, and dropped to 10th in our mock. Maybe all that’s a reaction to what has been a really weird season through one month, but I’m thinking that today is a great day to pursue some trades.
Buy the dip
Mike Clay: Of the 10 players chosen in the first round of this draft, only four were consensus top-10 picks in August. I took a bit of a “post-hype” approach, pouncing on Breece Hall and Bijan Robinson (often top-three overall picks in the preseason) at the Round 1/2 turn and grabbing Tyreek Hill and Cooper Kupp at the Round 3/4 turn as both should be in a better spot in a few weeks. I also think we overcorrected a bit at tight end, so I ended up with three simply by taking the best player on the board every round: Trey McBride in Round 6, LaPorta somehow in Round 10 and Kyle Pitts in Round 14.
Three players to target
Eric Moody: A mock draft like this one can really help you see how other managers might value players, revealing potential trade targets and their cost. Three players in early rounds that stood out: Garrett Wilson, Trey McBride and Josh Jacobs. Wilson has seen eight-plus targets in three of his four games, and his matchups are about to get easier. McBride is the only tight end with at least five targets in every game so far. Jacobs has had 15-plus touches in three of his four games. These players could each give you great value moving forward.
There’s value to be had in the rookie class
Matt Bowen: During our summer mocks, I targeted Ladd McConkey and Keon Coleman much earlier in drafts. Yes, we know rookies — especially wide receivers — take time to develop, which impacts target volume and route deployment. But I was able to land both much later in this fantasy re-draft. They’re bench stashes for now, with upside during the second half of the season as their roles (and snaps) increase.
We can’t stop talking about tight ends
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Tyler Fulghum: A few things stood out to me that my colleagues have mostly covered, but the most meaningful to me is that tight end is a barren hellscape from which there is no reprieve. We didn’t see the first TE come off the board until pick 51. That’s the 6th round! And that tight end, Trey McBride, is currently dealing with a concussion. Last year’s breakout rookie Sam LaPorta is healthy, playing on an awesome offense … and lasted until Round 10. Don’t even get me started on Mark Andrews and Kyle Pitts.
I drafted Brock Bowers in the 9th round hoping he is “The Promised One” sent to save the position, despite his awful environment in Las Vegas. Filling this position on your roster every week has been, by far, the most depressing part of this beautiful game.
Bottom line: Drafting in October is the same, but different
Daniel Dopp: I did not realize how difficult it would be to redraft in October. At the beginning of the season, you feel like there’s hope on a bunch of players because we haven’t seen anyone on the field yet, but four weeks into the season, it’s difficult to feel like you can keep believing in certain situations. That being said, for my own team, I decided to go with CeeDee Lamb at 1.01 and was still able to get Jonathan Taylor and Kenneth Walker III as my starting RBs. Not too bad given the lack of depth at the position.
I also loved getting Jayden Reed as my flex play, especially with what he’s done this year when Jordan Love has been under center. Bench depth of Waddle and Kirk at WR feels a little dicey, but I grabbed a bunch of late RBs (Singletary, Spears, Bigsby and Emanuel Wilson) just in case any of them are able to see a more significant role as the season progresses.
As it stands, my biggest takeaway is how difficult it is to retrain your brain to do a draft in October. Don’t believe me? Give it a try.
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