Fantasy hockey goalie tandems – Draft, pass or wait

It’s not just anecdotal that tandems are a necessary evil when navigating your crease to the fantasy championship.

Of the 360 season-long goaltender stat lines that make up the top 24 goalies in each season since 2009-10, there are 98 goaltenders who did so while earning fewer than 55% of the available minutes in the crease (crease share). Of those 98 across the past 15 years, 46 of them are from the past five seasons.

Similarly, of the 16 goaltenders to finish among the top 12 in fantasy points with a crease share below 55%, eight of them are from the past five years.

The average crease share of a top-12 goalie in fantasy from 2009-10 to 2018-19 was 72.7%. That same average crease share for the past five seasons was 62.3%.

The workload revamp isn’t just hitting tandems though, as workhorse goaltenders are becoming a thing of the past. Forget fantasy success being a factor: Among all goaltenders in the past 15 years, only 78 have managed to earn a crease share of higher than 75%. But note that 42 of those seasons come in the first five years of our statistics (from 2009-10 to 2013-14). In the past five years, only 10 goaltenders have hit that 75% threshold (Connor Hellebuyck did it four times, Andrei Vasilevskiy and Juuse Saros twice, with Carey Price and Thatcher Demko doing it once).

Martin Brodeur had a 90.6% crease share in 2009-10, which is unheard of now. Carey Price has the highest crease share in the past five seasons, posting 80.6% in 2019-20 – a full 10% lower.

So tandems are increasingly important. Let’s express it as thus: Of fantasy points generated by the top 24 goaltenders each season from 2009-10 to 2013-14, it was just 14.4 percent that came from goaltenders with a crease share below 55 percent. That same number between 2019-20 and 2023-24 has ballooned to 30.3 percent.

Resources: Projections | Mock draft | Goalie depth chart | Most added/dropped

In alphabetical order, let’s explore some of the teams likely to have a tandem, and likely to produce a quality fantasy goaltender from that tandem. The second part of that will leave out some teams like the Anaheim Ducks, Calgary Flames or Chicago Blackhawks, who, until we see otherwise, aren’t as likely to give us a fantasy-relevant goaltender, especially in a tandem.

We will also not look at teams likely to have a goaltender claim 65% or more of the crease share. The lowest crease share of a top-12 goaltender in the past 15 years was 38.4%, after all (Jack Campbell for the Toronto Maple Leafs in 2020-21).

To frame the discussion, a snapshot of last seasons performers from the same team is provided, with their respective crease share, fantasy points and age. Then, we will list the roster that is shaping up for 2024-25, sometimes the same players, sometimes not.

Skip ahead: Boston Bruins | Carolina Hurricanes | Minnesota Wild | Pittsburgh Penguins | Seattle Kraken | Toronto Maple Leafs | Washington Capitals | Detroit Red Wings | Washington Capitals | Vegas Golden Knights

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Draft day picks

2023-24 season

• Linus Ullmark: 48.3% crease share, 116.0 fantasy points (31 years, 40 days)

• Jeremy Swayman: 51.7% crease share, 136.8 fantasy points (25 years, 290 days)

2024-25 roster

The definitive tandem duo for the past couple seasons has now been split up, with Ullmark swapped to the Ottawa Senators for Korpisalo. If we are being picky, Swayman is technically not yet on the Bruins roster (as of Sept. 20) because he remains an unsigned restricted free agent. That said, the Bruins are the blueprint for how to run a tandem, as Swayman finished ninth among goaltenders for fantasy points and Ullmark finished 13th, both worthy investments for fantasy teams. The season prior, 2022-23, Ullmark was first and Swayman was 13th.

Can the party keep raging with Ullmark out and Korpisalo in? If the Bruins end up paying Swayman the big contract, does he just take over the crease as a workhorse? If the Bruins and Swayman are stalemated, does Korpisalo become a fantasy star? At the very least, Korpisalo is a must-add insurance target, but Swayman is definitely the preferred choice to start the fantasy season, as long as he signs on the dotted line.

2023-24 season

• Frederik Andersen: 18.5% crease share, 81.4 fantasy points (34 years, 342 days)

• Spencer Martin: 16.0% crease share, 12.6 fantasy points (29 years, 94 days)

• Antti Raanta: 25.7% crease share, 13.0 fantasy points (35 years, 120 days)

• Pyotr Kochetkov: 48.1% crease share, 111.8 fantasy points (25 years, 77 days)

• Yaniv Perets: 0.3% crease share, 0.2 fantasy points (24 years, 189 days)

2024-25 roster

Just a quick note as it’s not the first time it will come up, you’ll see the crease share for the Hurricanes adds up to more than 100%. That’s because it’s the crease share for that individual goaltender; so when a player was traded midseason it can skew the number. Spencer Martin’s 16.0% crease share refers to his share of the crease when he was a member for the Carolina Hurricanes. It does not include the time he was with the Columbus Blue Jackets last season. You’ll see this again below with Montreal and Jake Allen.

Of the five goaltenders making an appearance for the Hurricanes, only Kochetkov finished among the top 24 goaltenders (17th). It’s likely the plan here is to split time between Kochetkov and Andersen, with the hot hand getting more starts in the moment. I remain a believer in Kochetkov and have concerns about Andersen given their relative age and trajectories. Only 13 goaltenders in the past 15 seasons have managed to finish among the top 12 in fantasy at age 35 or older. Andersen turns 35 on October 2.

2023-24 season

2024-25 roster

The Wild seemingly have all three goaltender archetypes: Fleury, the bold veteran still hanging on thanks to his love of the game, but past his fantasy relevance; Gustavsson, in his prime with one of the best tandem seasons in recent memory on his side when he posted a ninth-place finish in 2022-23 despite just a 46.5% crease share, but coming off a terrible season; and Wallstedt, the 21-year-old anointed as a future superstar but lacking the experience in the NHL to confirm he has the stuff.

Who are we drafting? The answer in re-draft leagues has to be either Gustavsson or Wallstedt, but not until they are at least the third goaltender you take for your fantasy team. Wallstedt has probably been a priority in your keeper leagues for a year or two already, but it doesn’t hurt to check on his availability.

2023-24 season

• Tristan Jarry: 55.7% crease share, 80.2 fantasy points (29 years, 134 days)

• Alex Nedeljkovic: 41.9% crease share, 65.4 fantasy points (28 years, 246 days)

• Magnus Hellberg: 2.4% crease share, 5.8 fantasy points (33 years, 159 days)

2024-25 roster

The Penguins are a very interesting case because they still have a roster that, on paper, could win games. The disappearance of the power play last season was arguably the biggest factor in their demise, but that could return given the players that will be out on the advantage. Now, what makes this particularly interesting is that Jarry took a major step back and Nedeljkovic took enough of a step forward to put them on almost even footing coming into the 2024-25 season. Jarry was a top-15 goaltender for four consecutive seasons before last season, so he could return to prominence and is worth a look at drafts. But Nedeljkovic is worth watching, too, if his playing time can hover around 50% or if Jarry doesn’t snap back into form.

2023-24 season

• Philipp Grubauer: 40.3% crease share, 43.2 fantasy points (32 years, 289 days)

• Joey Daccord: 57.2% crease share, 115.6 fantasy points (28 years, 21 days)

• Chris Driedger: 2.4% crease share, 5.0 fantasy points (30 years, 114 days)

2024-25 roster

I don’t think this will be a tandem and I think that Daccord has secured his role as at least the 60-40 starter this season. But, out of respect for Grubauer finishing second among all goaltenders in 2020-21, I’ll at least list him here so you can see the numbers. Clearly, Daccord was the better goaltender for all of last season, which was a down year overall for the Kraken compared to their surprising 2022-23 campaign. With that in mind, note that Grubauer has finished 46th, 44th and 62nd among goalies in his three seasons with the Kraken, so it’s Daccord or bust for fantasy.

2023-24 season

• Ilya Samsonov: 46.6% crease share, 62.4 fantasy points (27 years, 199 days)

• Joseph Woll: 29.8% crease share, 45.0 fantasy points (26 years, 60 days)

• Martin Jones: 23.7% crease share, 42.6 fantasy points (34 years, 242 days)

2024-25 roster

In what I can only describe as a situation that equates to building the perfect legal case and then showing up to court with no pants on, the Maple Leafs are going with a largely untested crease yet again – despite having an overpowered offense. Neither Woll nor Stolarz has earned a crease share greater than 30.6% in their career. Both have showed promise, with Stolarz among the leaders in fantasy points per 60 minutes (FPP60) last season and Woll among them in 2022-23, but success will come down to how well they respond to increased workload and responsibility. I wouldn’t mind going into the season with either of them as my third goaltender, thanks largely to the Leafs being likely to win a lot. However, you shouldn’t be relying on them as one of your top two goaltenders for fantasy.

2023-24 season

• Charlie Lindgren: 57.5% crease share, 131.8 fantasy points (30 years, 266 days)

• Darcy Kuemper: 37.6% crease share, 19.4 fantasy points (34 years, 128 days)

• Hunter Shepard: 4.9% crease share, 5.0 fantasy points (28 years, 307 days)

2024-25 roster

Stealing the crease from Darcy Kuemper last season, Lindgren helped win some fantasy leagues down the stretch. So this may not actually be a tandem, per se, as a continued roll from Lindgren might keep him in the crease for a greater than 60-40 split over the newly arrived Thompson. While Lindgren finished 11th overall for fantasy last season, Thompson was no slouch either, posting enough fantasy points to rank 19th among goalies.

Wait and watch

2023-24 season

• Ville Husso: 20.6% crease share, 17.2 fantasy points (29 years, 216 days)

• James Reimer: 27.5% crease share, 43.4 fantasy points (36 years, 178 days)

• Alex Lyon: 50.8% crease share, 80.6 fantasy points (31 years, 274 days)

• Michael Hutchinson: 1.2% crease share, 0.6 fantasy points (34 years, 192 days)

2024-25 roster

Among all the Red Wings goaltenders from last season as well as the ones available this coming season, only Talbot finished with enough fantasy points to be among the relevant goaltenders in 2023-24. And the fact he finished 10th overall comes with a huge asterisk, as his stats fell off a cliff when the calendar flipped to 2024 (27th among goaltenders from Jan. 1 onward).

Surely some kind of tandem will emerge here between Talbot, Husso, Lyon and maybe even Campbell. But perhaps the bigger question is whether the Red Wings take a big enough step forward overall to provide the requisite wins required for the production of fantasy points. There is something positive to be said for all of these suitors: Talbot has finished among the top 12 goaltenders in three of the past four seasons; Husso is eight years younger and two seasons removed from a 15th overall finish (in a season in which his crease share was just 47.7%); Lyon has had some positive stretches in the past two seasons, though hasn’t put it all together; and even Campbell was a top-12 goaltender in both 2020-21 and 2021-22.

I don’t think I’m trying to draft any of them out of the gate, but the Wings will be worth watching in October for signs of life in the crease.

2023-24 season

• Jake Allen: 31.1% crease share, 1.4 fantasy points (34 years, 34 days)

• Sam Montembeault: 48.9% crease share, 55.0 fantasy points (27 years, 314 days)

• Cayden Primeau: 26.7% crease share, 43.0 fantasy points (25 years, 30 days)

2024-25 roster

Like the Red Wings, the main question here is whether the Canadiens are ready to win more games in support of their goaltenders. Both Primeau and Montembeault have looked solid at times, but have spent their career playing for losing teams. The Habs might not quite be there yet though, so one of these two would likely need to take a leading role to concentrate enough fantasy value for most leagues.

2023-24 season

• Adin Hill: 39.9% crease share, 84.0 fantasy points (28 years, 121 days)

• Logan Thompson: 53.6% crease share, 105.8 fantasy points (27 years, 196 days)

• Jiri Patera: 6.4% crease share, -2.0 fantasy points (25 years, 198 days)

2024-25 roster

• Adin Hill

• Ilya Samsonov: 46.56% crease share (with TOR), 62.4 fantasy points (27 years, 199 days)

• Akira Schmid: 18.72% crease share (with NJD), 6.8 fantasy points (24 years, 120 days)

Injuries prevented Hill from having a nice victory lap after leading the Golden Knights to the Stanley Cup the year prior. But he just missed the top-24 list for goaltenders — falling 0.6 fantasy points behind 24th — and he managed to accomplish that while getting under a 40% crease share. There is still some potential for Hill to put together a season-long fantasy campaign that makes us happy. Samsonov’s successful 2022-23 campaign with the Leafs (10th among goaltenders with a 50.2 crease share) is starting to look like the aberration from what is otherwise a not-fantasy-relevant career (he finished between 30th and 35th among goalies in his other four seasons).

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