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Michael Voebel, ESPN Senior Writer
The 2024 WNBA playoffs begin on September 22. If the regular season ended today, how many of the eight teams currently in the playoffs would win the league title?
The first-place New York Liberty, who have won seven straight games and are the only team so far to have secured a playoff spot, must continue to be the best team in the league this season.
“I think what I want to see from our team is the way we continue to improve,” New York’s Brianna Stewart said after the Liberty’s 94-74 win over the Dallas Wings on Tuesday. “Everyone says, ‘Oh, you’ve clinched the playoffs. Why are you still playing so hard?’ We want to hold on to that position, we want home-court advantage. And you saw that today, with two quarters to go, we held Dallas to under 20 points.”
“I feel like we haven’t achieved anything yet. Our record is great of course, but there is a lot we need to improve on, and we don’t want to peak too soon.”
The Las Vegas Aces are fourth in the standings, but as two-time defending champions, they are seen as next in line to win the title in 2024.
Since the WNBA’s inception in 1997, the league hasn’t been known for many major playoff upsets or unexpected title wins. But it has happened. Until 2021, the sixth-seeded Chicago Sky, who had a .500 regular-season record that year, won the championship over the fifth-seeded Phoenix Mercury.
But since the league moved in 2016 to a playoff system that seeded the top eight teams overall — rather than splitting the field between the Eastern and Western conferences with the top four teams from each — every title except 2021 has been won by a team seeded No. 1 or No. 2.
However, reaching the knockout stages at least means a team has a chance to win the entire tournament. Here’s a look at how the current top eight teams measure up as title contenders, ranked by what we think their chances are of winning the tournament.
1. New York Liberty (24-4)
Current position in the ranking: 1
Previous titles: no one
New York has played for the title five times, including a 3-1 loss to Las Vegas in the WNBA Finals last season. The Liberty reached the Commissioner’s Cup final in June, losing to Minnesota after winning the title last year. Overall, New York has been very impressive in 2024, getting top-level performances from guard Sabrina Ionescu and forwards Stewart and Jonquel Jones. The Liberty and coach Sandy Brondello also have a good sense of what they need and can get it consistently off the bench. That was on display again Tuesday, as Ionescu was sidelined with a sore neck and Petnia Lani Hamilton has yet to return from knee surgery. But the experience of playing together for another season has also built the Liberty’s confidence.
The Liberty have had their share of disappointments as a team, but focusing on the present and the opportunity is key. This group is very capable of doing this. New York fans have been waiting a long time, but this could be the reward.
2. Las Vegas Aces (17-9)
Current position in the ranking: 4
Previous titles: 2022, 2023
As things stand, the Aces and Liberty, who finished first and second in the standings last season, could meet in the semifinals, which would be a stunning event. Las Vegas lost just six games in the regular season last season, so they have struggled even more this year. The absence of midfielder Chelsea Gray from the starting lineup until July 2 due to injury had a major impact on Las Vegas’ underperformance earlier in the season.
But with Gray back, A’ja Wilson in the midst of a near-final MVP season, and Jackie Young and Kelsey Plum among the league’s elite, the Aces remain a formidable force. Veteran Tiffany Hayes’ return from retirement to join the Aces also helps, as does the experience of a Las Vegas team that won the championship under coach Becky Hammon. The Aces may benefit from not being considered the favorites to win this year.
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Current position in the ranking: 3
Previous titles: 2011, 2013, 2015, 2017
The Lynx lead the WNBA defensive rating and won the Commissioner’s Cup final over New York in June. Napheesa Collier is one of the league’s best players, averaging a double-double. Fellow forward Alanna Smith has built on her stellar season last year in Chicago, and guard Courtney Williams, also formerly with the Sky, has been a great fit in Minnesota as well. Guard Kayla McBride is having one of her best seasons in her 11th year in the league.
The Lynx recently traded forward Mysha Hines-Allen, who won a title with Washington in 2019. She’s a reliable quarterback who should fit in well with what the Lynx are doing. Minnesota has won all four of its titles under current coach Cheryl Reeve, so she knows the steps it takes to get there.
Current position in the ranking: 2
Previous titles: no one
The Suns’ starting trio of Alyssa Thomas, Dewanna Bonner and Breonna Jones has been bolstered by career-best seasons from goalies Dijonae Carrington and Tisha Harris. The Suns, who started the season with a 9-0 record, traded for goalie Marina Mabry on July 17 to add more scoring firepower, and she has played well for Connecticut so far.
The Suns remain one of the league’s most potent defensive teams. Can they maintain that level and step up their offense even more? Is there anything this team can do better than previous Sun teams that came close to winning championships but never quite made the breakthrough? The Suns never had the extra “breakthrough” that could have tipped the balance in previous WNBA Finals appearances. But led by veterans Thomas and Bonner, they’ll fight to the end with anyone.
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Tiasha Harris scores the winner at the end of the first half.
Tiasha Harris sinks a three-pointer as time runs out at the end of the first half for the Suns.
5. Phoenix Mercury (15-13)
Current position in the ranking: 6
Previous titles: 2007, 2009, 2014
The Mercury haven’t put in much effort so far this season, and we’re putting them ahead of Indiana despite the Fever’s 3-0 win over Phoenix. But what’s going on? This could be Diana Taurasi’s last season, which could be a motivating factor for her and the team.
There’s also WNBA experience with players like Taurasi, Brittney Griner, guard/forward Kahleah Copper (with Chicago) and guard Natasha Cloud (with Washington). The team recently added forward Monique Billings on a seven-day contract; if she stays on the roster, she’ll fill a need within the team. Finally, there’s a sense that the Mercury haven’t played their best, so maybe it’s still coming.
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Current position in the ranking: 5
Previous titles: 2004, 2010, 2018, 2020
The Storm added veterans like forward Nneka Ogwumike and guard Skylar Diggins-Smith in the offseason. They also added forward Gabby Williams. She played for the Storm the past two seasons and is now back in the WNBA after spending time preparing for the French team that won the Olympic silver medal. Center Izzy Magbigore, who won a bronze medal with Australia at the Olympics, has become a top defender. And of course, the Storm has star guard Jewel Lloyd, who was part of the gold medal-winning U.S. team.
Can Seattle put the pieces together well enough to claim a title in the post-Sue Bird era? The Storm are in the middle of the pack offensively, so they’ll need to improve there. Williams could make a very good defense even better.
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Current position in the ranking: 7
Previous titles: 2012
By now everyone is familiar with one of the most recurring facts of the season: The Fever haven’t made the playoffs since 2016. That’s their stated goal for 2024. It seemed ambitious during that difficult first month. But look what happened next: Since June 13, the Fever have a record of 10 wins and 5 losses. That record includes three wins over Phoenix, plus victories over New York, Minnesota and Seattle. Indiana’s record over that span is better than the Mercury (9-7) and Storm (9-6).
But we’re keeping the Fever at No. 7 on this list for now because it’s a huge leap from a seven-season playoff drought to a title, led by stars who have only completed their first (Kaitlyn Clark) and second (Aaliyah Boston) seasons in the WNBA. But the Fever are already in real playoff fever, and that’s the first step.
8. Chicago Sky (11-16)
Current position in the ranking: 8
Previous titles: 2021
After the first week back from the Olympics, Team Sky is likely to be looking at the team right behind them in the standings — the Atlanta Dream — rather than thinking about winning the title. The Dream could go into the playoffs, trying to beat Chicago or Indiana. The idea of Team Sky going on a run like 2021 is a long shot, as that team was much more experienced.
However, freshmen midfielders Angel Reyes and Camila Cardoso have NCAA titles on their resumes, and the Sky look their best when they play good games at the same time. Reyes is already one of the best rebounders in the WNBA. Defensive player Chennedy Carter led the Sky in scoring in her return to the WNBA. But Chicago is in the bottom three teams in the league in scoring, making it hard to believe the Sky can win three straight playoff series to win the championship.
