Is this USMNT team better or worse than the one at the World Cup?

When the US men’s national team bowed out of the 2022 World Cup in the Round of 16, there was disappointment but also excitement about what lay ahead. The roster was the youngest team in the tournament weighted by minutes, with more players receiving significant playing time in the top leagues than in the past. With the World Cup now under their belt, it was thought that the USMNT would continue their upward trajectory.

With the U.S. now heading into the Copa América, starting with Sunday’s group stage opener against Bolivia, the question now is: Are the U.S. better now than at the end of last cycle? This of course depends on the numbers you use as well as the subjective eye test. It is not always an easy assessment. Two recent friendlies against Colombia (beaten 5-1) and Brazil (draw 1-1) provide fodder for both sides of the feud.

“We’ve had opportunities to try to prove ourselves against top opposition since the World Cup, and there were times when we played really well and there were times when there was obvious room for improvement,” goalkeeper Matt Turner said during a press conference. .

“So I think the biggest thing we’ve learned about each other is that we can’t accept the status quo. I think we have to demand a lot from each other on the field, whether it’s training, whether it’s playing, whenever we’re together , because as talented as we are, we are only as good as we are intense.”

Based on FIFA and Elo rankings, the current version of the USMNT is marginally better. At the end of 2022, the American FIFA ranking was 13th with 1653 points, while the Elo ranking was 23rd with 1819 points. Eighteen months later, the respective rankings were 11th for FIFA with 1677 points and 21st for Elo, although the points had dropped to 1790.

So yes, that draw against Brazil, not to mention winning the Concacaf Nations League twice, helped make up for an embarrassing CNL loss to Trinidad and Tobago. And it’s worth remembering that due to the constraints of the international soccer calendar, the USMNT’s schedule will consist mostly of Concacaf opposition.

Looking at the numbers from the US slate of games, this cycle compared to last tells a similar story, although it’s not exactly an apples-to-apples comparison. With the USA co-hosting the 2026 World Cup with Canada and Mexico, there are no World Cup qualifiers to fill the schedule, so this 23-game cycle has a slightly higher percentage of friendlies (43.5%) than the 56 games leading up to the World Cup championship in 2022 (37.5%).

This could explain why most attacking stats on a 90-minute basis are higher compared to the 2022 World Cup race, including goals scored (2.1 in the 2022 cycle compared to 2.25), chances created (9.09 to 11 .38) and shots on goal (5.1 to 5.75). One worse metric is xG (1.7 to 1.9).

On the defensive side of the ball, the trend is mostly positive. Goals allowed per 90 minutes is up (0.56 during the 2022 cycle to 0.88) — that big loss to Colombia didn’t help — although xG against is down slightly (0.96 to 0.87). The same applies to the chances received (7.59 to 6.46), while the shots on goal (3.21 to 3.17) are essentially even.

to play

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However, not everything can be explained by numbers. Some of what’s going to happen over the next month has to do with available personnel and current form. Defensively, it’s hard to argue that the USMNT is better. The lack of time for goalkeeper Turner looks less than ideal, regardless of his performance against Brazil.

The bigger concern is the season of injuries suffered by holding midfielder Tyler Adams. His skill set has a huge impact in terms of the US midfield, given his ability to cover the ground and break up attacks. In an exclusive interview with ESPN ahead of the friendly against Brazil, Adams said he was “ready to play a role” and came on for 14 minutes. But the USMNT will need Adams to be the best in their midfield in destruction if they want to go far in the tournament.

Like many things in the US, the attack has seen some positives and negatives. Sergiño Desta’s anterior cruciate injury is negative. Although ostensibly an outside back, Dest’s ability to penetrate the offense and cause problems on the pass and dribble is indispensable, leaving the USA with one less attacking option to deploy.

The forward position has long been a sore spot for the USA under manager Gregg Berhalter. For what seemed like years, no player had been able to lay claim to that spot. It is worth recalling that Jesús Ferreira started the World Cup game for the USA

That dynamic has now changed. While it would be a stretch to say the USMNT is now enjoying an embarrassment of riches at the position, Berhalter at least now has options. Folarin Balogun was seen as a savior in the attack, although he has yet to make a big impact. Still, his talent is clear, and part of the problem is that his teammates can’t seem to find him with the kind of passes behind opposing defenses that he thrives on.

Josh Sargent’s larger frame and versatility make him an intriguing option, but a long-term foot injury has barely healed in time for him to make the Copa roster, and it’s unclear how big a role he’ll be able to play. Ricardo Pepi has proven adept in the super-sub role — five of his 10 international goals have come off the bench — though he will struggle for minutes more. Haji Wright has been earmarked as a winger, although he can play a more central role.

Quality service will go a long way in determining how successful attackers will be, and creativity is the area where the US is poised to make the most progress. The issues surrounding Berhalter and Gio Reyna have been well-documented, but with the two moving on from the World Cup clash and its aftermath, Reyna is now poised to take on a bigger role, either scoring or setting up goals. Much like Adams’ availability, his ability to face the moment this tournament will have a big say in how far the U.S. goes.

How Reyna will be used is also a factor. Berhalter relied on Reyna at times to drop deep to help initiate the offense. But there is also a desire to bring Reyna further into the field and into dangerous places.

“Now it’s kind of finding the balance to go deeper but at the same time to get into the attacking third and still create transitions for the team and get goals and assists,” Reyna said during a press conference.

“So these last few days we’re still working on that a lot, (just) the balance of going deep and staying more, but he just wants me to be involved in a few different aspects of the game and to build on he wanted me to be involved a little bit more.”

There also appears to be more depth now than the U.S. had in 2022. The additions of players like Johnny Cardoso, Pepi and Malik Tillman, all of whom have European experience, augment what new starters Chris Richards and Balogun have.

Then there are the intangibles. The World Cup gives this national team a level of experience it hasn’t had before. The USA should be wiser about match management and navigating the tournament. The two friendlies mentioned above highlight how this is a constant process and requires playing as a unit.

“I think a lot of times, especially playing in Concacaf games, we can only get away with being individuals,” Richards said.

“I think you saw that in the Colombia game. That’s why we killed ourselves in just playing like it was a regular Concacaf game. I think it was a warning for us, kind of an eye opener, that if we want to be able to to beat the big teams, we want to be able to compete with the big teams, we can’t just play how you want to play as a team.”

Add that up and by any measure the current edition of the USMNT looks a little better than its World Cup 2022 counterpart. But results at the Copa América will be the ultimate indicator.