MLB Home Run Derby: Predictions, live updates and takeaways

It’s 2024 MLB All-Star Home Run Derby day in Arlington!

Some of the best home run hitters in baseball will be taking aim at the Globe Life Field stands on Monday (8 p.m. ET on ESPN) in one of the most anticipated events of the summer.

While the prospect of a back-to-back champion is out of the picture — 2023 winner Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is not a part of this year’s field — Pete Alonso will try to become the second player to win the event three times, joining the elite company of Ken Griffey Jr. Will this be the year Alonso does it? Will Adolis Garcia make a run in front of his home crowd? Or will one of the other exciting six participants take the title?

We have your one-stop shop for everything Derby related, from predictions to live updates once we get underway to analysis and takeaways.

Who is going to win the Derby and who will be the runner-up?

Jeff Passan: Bobby Witt Jr. is going to go back home and take the title. Witt, the Kansas City Royals’ star shortstop, grew up in Colleyville, about 20 minutes north of Globe Life Field. He’s got surprising pop for a player his size and the sort of swing that can get grooved in a hurry. With the new format awarding strategy, Witt can use his endurance and youth to outlast a field short on name recognition but long on power. Alonso will be the favorite heading into the finals against Witt, but the young star will oust the Polar Bear and win the $1 million prize.

Alden Gonzalez: Remember Games 6 and 7 of last year’s ALCS and the way Adolis Garcia terrorized the Houston Astros with their fans all over him? Few love the spotlight more than Garcia, and he will thrive while representing the hometown Texas Rangers at the Derby. Garcia, who was not voted an All-Star, hasn’t been off to the greatest of starts this season. Perhaps playing into November has something to do with it. But this is the kind of event that can get him going. As one of the Rangers’ coaches put it: “When the lights are bright, his star shines brightest.”

Buster Olney: Alonso is the safe pick — he’s always the safe pick, because of his power and his experience, and his heart rate will probably be lower than anyone else’s. Plus, he’s reunited with Dave Jauss, his batting practice pitcher from the last time that he won this, and Jauss might be a first-ballot Hall of Fame batting practice pitcher because of all of the times he’s done events like this through the years. This is the Derby; Jauss is Bill Shoemaker; and Alonso is Secretariat.

Jesse Rogers: I’m going with an upset pick: Marcell Ozuna. He’s turned into a massive power hitter and I think he takes it a step further on Monday night. When he first came into the league, Ozuna possessed a launch angle of around 10 degrees; now, it hovers at about 16. His swing just has that long ball feel to it. And that’s when he isn’t tasked to hit as many as possible like he will be in the Derby. The result of all this was a career high 40 home runs last season and another 26 so far this year. Take the underdog.

Jorge Castillo: Garcia will become the fourth player to win the Home Run Derby at his home ballpark and the first since Bryce Harper took it at Nationals Park in 2018. Garcia isn’t an All-Star, but he’s still banged 17 home runs this season after clubbing 39 in 2023. He showed he loves the grandest stages during the Rangers’ World Series run last October. He’ll shine on another one on Monday.

Who will hit the longest home run of the night, and how far?

Passan: The longest home run this season among those in the field is Witt’s 468-foot blast. Next in line is Ozuna at 448 feet. So while Witt may not whack one 500 feet, something in the 475-foot-plus range is eminently possible.

Gonzalez: Witt isn’t the biggest of guys, but among the eight contestants, he not only has the longest home run of the season, but also the longest average distance on homers and the most “no-doubters” (home runs that would have been gone in all 30 ballparks). He is, as they say, twitchy. And, as Jeff predicted, I think he’ll get into the 470s.

Olney: Gunnar Henderson has the kind of raw power that separates him, and at least once in the first round, he’s going to put all of that excitement and adrenaline and pure power into a swing and take a ball into the 475-foot range. What’s that old saying — country strong? That’s what Henderson is.

Rogers: My head says Witt but my gut is going with Garcia. He’s going to wow the home crowd at some point, right? How about one close to 500 feet? It might tire him out trying — I didn’t pick him to win — but Garcia will have Rangers fans on their feet with at least one massive blast.

Castillo: I picked García to win this thing, but I think Alonso will advance far, giving him ample opportunity to launch the night’s longest home run. Alonso, making his fifth straight Derby appearance, is by far the most experienced entrant in this field. He was born to crush baseballs. He clubbed one 466 feet last season. He’ll set the standard on Monday.

Which slugger will be impacted most by the new Derby rules?

Passan: Alonso more or less mastered the form of manic Derby, winning back-to-back contests before losing to Julio Rodríguez’s record-setting first round last year. Because of rules changes, what he knows of the Derby as a five-time participant is thrown out the window. He’ll need to adjust to the new format and instead of playing for speed, try to find a balance of urgency and endurance — always a difficult balance to strike in the Derby.

Gonzalez: Keep in mind that it’s a maximum of 40 pitches per three-minute round, not 40 swings. The unheralded BP thrower has never been more important. We’ve seen them make quite an impact in prior Derbies, most notably Alonso’s in 2021 and Rodriguez’s in 2022. But pitch location and tempo is even more critical now, and contestants must choose wisely. Those with BP throwers who don’t have prior Derby experience or wind up being inaccurate will be at a severe disadvantage.

Olney: The guy whose batting practice pitcher has the most trouble putting the ball on a proverbial tee. (And we don’t know who that is yet.) The new rules increase the importance of the BP pitcher and his efficiency, and every year, we see one or two of the pitchers — even experienced guys — struggle to throw strikes. Jauss was extraordinary in his consistency in his first year throwing to Alonso, and in his second year, he wasn’t as consistent. The pressure is on the BP pitchers more than ever.

Rogers: The untimed bonus round will feel like a walk in the park for Alonso as he’s competed under the old rules for years now. Same goes for the lack of head-to-head competition in the first round. He and the other hitters won’t be in fear of getting knocked out early by an outlier performance from one competitor. Having done it the old way, Alonso can now just go mash in a more relaxed environment under the new rules. At least that’s how I see it.

Castillo: Echoing Alden and Buster here, whoever wins this Derby will have probably had the night’s best pitcher. Consistency is crucial in this format. Give your guy enough fat pitches to launch over the wall and you give him a chance. It comes down to that. That’s why I think Alonso could have the advantage with Jauss because of their experience together. Yes, he’ll have to adjust to the new rules, but if there’s anyone who will thoroughly prepare for the event, it’s Alonso.

What’s the one moment we’ll all be talking about long after this Derby ends?

Passan: The new rule that instead of 30 seconds of bonus time players can hit as many home runs as possible before they reach three outs should bring some added drama to the proceedings. It’s a nice homage to what the Derby looked like before 2015 and, in theory at least, offers a reasonable balance between the utter chaos that is the event on a clock. The prospect of a participant coming from behind and using those three outs — if a player hits a home run at least 425 feet that round, he receives an extra out — keeps the contest fresh.

Gonzalez: That Henderson and Witt competed in this together. Henderson is 23 years old, Witt is 24. They’re already among the very best in the sport and will vie for the American League MVP throughout the second half of this season. MLB might be entering into another golden era of shortstops, not unlike what we experienced with Alex Rodriguez, Derek Jeter and Nomar Garciaparra in the 1990s. Now it’s Henderson, Witt, Elly De La Cruz and a host of other young players who might develop similarly. The 2024 Home Run Derby will epitomize that.

Olney: The best Derby rounds have been generated by players who didn’t wind up winning the event — Lance Berkman in Houston, Josh Hamilton in Yankee Stadium, Julio Rodriguez last year. Henderson will be that guy this year — he’ll go nuts early on, effectively announcing his presence with authority to all of those casual fans who will be tuning in and learning his name and that of Witt for the first time.

Rogers: OK, I’ll be the party-pooper: that Shohei Ohtani and Aaron Judge didn’t pick up a bat Monday night. How can MLB host a Home Run Derby without at least one of those guys — if not both — participating? Michael Jordan didn’t entertain us in the slam dunk contest every year, but he did win it twice. (Judge has one Derby win, back in 2017). It just doesn’t make sense that the top two home run hitters at the break aren’t in it. If Alonso can do it every year, then those two certainly can. Let’s see the big guys back in it in 2025.

Castillo: Garcia putting on a show in front of his home crowd to outlast Alonso in the finals. Winning the Derby at home makes for memorable moments. We saw it with Harper in 2018 and Todd Frazier in 2015. The atmosphere becomes electric. Emotions surface. Garcia will turn Globe Life Field up.