MLB September predictions: Playoff races, awards, more surprises

Welcome to September! We’re five months into Major League Baseball’s 2024 season and there is plenty of intrigue entering the homestretch.

Which of the current contenders will be headed to the playoffs come October? How will the division races play out? Who are the favorites to win the MVP and Cy Young awards? And will Aaron Judge and Shohei Ohtani make history to cap off their incredible 2024 performances?

To discuss what the final month of the regular season might bring, we asked a panel of 18 ESPN baseball experts some of the game’s biggest questions, covering September and beyond. We also asked a number of them to explain their answers — particularly those that went against the grain.

Below, you’ll find our picks for the postseason, major awards and more, including a few surprising answers and some bold predictions about what’s next.

The teams we’ll be talking about for the final month

Which team will finish with the best record in baseball?

Dodgers: 14
Phillies: 3
Brewers: 1

The Dodgers were the overwhelming pick. Why did you take them?

The Dodgers have a slight lead for the best record in baseball, due in large part to their unreal lineup. The good news for further growth is their lead isn’t so big that they’ll take their foot off the gas and the pitching staff will get better, possibly soon. Michael Kopech magically improved once acquired and is now the closer while Clayton Kershaw, Tyler Glasnow, and Yoshinobu Yamamoto could all return in the coming weeks. The worst performing members of the rotation are Walker Buehler and Bobby Miller, who could revert to frontline form at any point. — Kiley McDaniel

The Dodgers’ pitching may have flaws, but their midseason acquisitions of Jack Flaherty and Kopech have been pivotal. With Max Muncy healthy and Tommy Edman strengthening center field, this lineup is MLB’s deepest. This team’s chemistry, as well as the offense is peaking at the right time, and Shohei Ohtani’s historic 50 HR/50 SB season seems almost inevitable. — Xavier Scruggs

The other two NL division leaders were also selected. Let’s hear the case for Philadelphia and Milwaukee:

The Phillies’ record since the All-Star break is below .500 and they’re still just 1.5 games back from the best mark. Now that they’ve seemed to right the ship, and with a schedule featuring only one other playoff team the rest of the way, I’m expecting a strong final month in Philly. — Dan Mullen

The surprising Brewers have overcome obstacles (rotation, injuries) all season and still are right there with the win leaders. With their soft remaining schedule, weak division and emerging youngsters, watch them sneak into the top overall spot. — Eric Karabell

How many of the current 12 teams projected for the playoffs will be in the postseason field?

All 12: 14
11 of the current 12: 4 (Boston replacing Minnesota: 3; Boston replacing Kansas City: 1)

The Red Sox were the clear choice from our writers who thought someone would break into the field in the final month. Why do you think they’ll pass the Twins?

Boston’s strength of schedule in September might provide that last push it needs. The Red Sox play teams below .500 in half of their remaining series, while the Twins still have to play series against Cleveland and Kansas City — meaning the Red Sox have multiple opportunities to make up ground. Not to mention that Boston’s pitching — a reason the team had started to slip — might have found its rhythm once again. All I’m saying is, don’t count the Sox out just yet. — Liz Finny

Who will win the NL West?

Dodgers: 17
Padres: 1

You were the only one to pick a team other than the Dodgers to win the NL West. Why did you go with the Padres?

It’s become standard fare to predict the Dodgers to fail in the postseason, so let’s raise the stakes a bit and predict a late-season collapse that ends with the Padres overtaking them to win the NL West. Can San Diego make up six games over the final 26? The Padres are the best team in baseball since the All-Star break, they’re getting Fernando Tatis Jr. back, and they finish the season with six games against the Dodgers and Diamondbacks, the two teams ahead of them. — Tim Keown

Will Baltimore or New York win the AL East?

Yankees: 14
Orioles: 4

The Yankees were the pick by a vast majority of our experts. What do you think will put them over the top

Jazz Chisholm is the player they didn’t know they needed for the past five years. — Doug Glanville

Why do you think Baltimore can pass New York?

Zach Eflin just came back. Grayson Rodriguez and Jordan Westburg shouldn’t be far behind. The Orioles are getting healthy at the right time, and between that and starting September with a series against the White Sox, things are looking up for the team with the most talent in the American League. — Jeff Passan

What about the AL Central?

Guardians: 12
Royals: 5
Twins: 1

Our voters seem to think Cleveland is starting to pull away here. Why did you go with the Guardians?

I would’ve chosen the Royals before they lost Vinnie Pasquantino for the rest of the regular season, placed Michael Lorenzen on the injured list, and tumbled into a five-game losing streak. Completing one of the greatest one-year turnarounds in history would’ve made for a great story, but that’s now unlikely. The Twins have the talent, but they can’t stay healthy. The Guardians’ lineup has lost some steam while the starting rotation remains a concern, but they’ve been in first place (alone or tied) since April 6. And they’ll stay there (alone) for the rest of the month. — Jorge Castillo

It hurts my heart a little to not pick the Royals, who I think will stick in the postseason bracket even after the unfortunate broken thumb suffered by Pasquantino. Their recent faceplant may have taken them out of the Central race, especially since Cleveland has the easiest schedule the rest of the way.

Kansas City still has a buffer when it comes to playing on into October but the slump means they can’t worry about position on the bracket so much as making sure they are somewhere on it at all. Over the last week, Cleveland has moved from worrying about the Royals to worrying about overtaking the Yankees for the top overall seed in the AL. — Bradford Doolittle

How many games will the White Sox lose?

126: 2
125: 2
124: 5
123: 3
122: 2
121: 3
119: 1

Only one of our voters predicted the White Sox falling short of the all-time record for losses. Why did you predict a 36-126 finish?

There’s a question being debated on sports talk radio in Chicago: Who will win more games in September, the Bears or the White Sox? The fact that it’s a legitimate debate is all you need to know about the latter team down the stretch. To wit: Their first 10 games of the month come against playoff contenders. Plus, they have a West Coast trip left. Losing 126 might be too kind. — Jesse Rogers

The players who will dominate the final month

The 2024 AL and NL MVPs will be …?

AL: Aaron Judge — 18
NL: Shohei Ohtani — 18

Judge and Ohtani were unanimous picks. Who has the best chance of passing either player for MVP?

Bobby Witt Jr. is on way to a 10-WAR season, leading the AL in batting average, runs and hits while closing in on 30 home runs, 30 steals and 100 RBIs. His defensive metrics are off the charts. In most seasons, he’s an easy pick for MVP. If Judge falters in September and the surprising Royals win the AL Central, Witt could swoop in. In the NL, Francisco Lindor has actually passed Ohtani in FanGraphs WAR. He’s also closing in on a 30/30 season and a possible Gold Glove. Defense matters and that gives Lindor a chance. — David Schoenfield

How many home runs will Aaron Judge finish with?

64: 1
63: 6
62: 1
61: 2
60: 6
59: 1

Almost all of our panel has Judge reaching at least 60 home runs, why do you think he’ll finish with 64 long balls?

Sixty-four homers out of the question, you say? I’m just extrapolating the numbers. Since Judge’s slow start, he hit 47 homers in a recent 105-game stretch, an unbelievable rate; he even hit seven homers in 9 games, so he can go off at any moment. The Yankees have 24 games remaining, and so not only will Judge get to his own record, but he’ll go beyond. — Olney

Will Shohei Ohtani become the first member of the 50/50 club?

Yes: 16
No: 2

The vast majority of our voters think Ohtani will make history. Why do you believe he’ll get to 50 home runs and 50 stolen bases?

He’s going to get there because he’s fully capable, because he’s on pace to and because the Dodgers’ games will continue to matter down the stretch.

Perhaps just as important: He’s going to get there because it seems as if he really wants to. An understated element of Ohtani is how in tune he is with his mark on the sport. Given that he wouldn’t pitch, he saw this as the year when he could maximize his value on the bases. And he won’t let an opportunity for 50-50 slip past him. — Gonzalez

The 2024 Cy Youngs will go to …?

AL: Tarik Skubal — 18

NL: Chris Sale — 15
Zack Wheeler — 3

Skubal was unanimous in the AL and Sale was a runaway pick in the NL. Why did you go with Zack Wheeler?

Chris Sale is -650 to win the NL Cy Young at ESPN BET, but should NOT be considered a runaway based on two factors: workload and trouble finishing seasons effectively. Sale’s 153⅔ innings are already more than he logged in 2021-23 combined (151) and soon to be more than any season since 2017. His career September/October splits are fairly loud — a 3.69 ERA and .739 OPS allowance are both career worsts by calendar month. Zack Wheeler has no such history, making his +450 price at ESPN BET an especially good value. — Paul Hembekides

Who will win AL and NL Rookie of the Year?

AL: Cowser — 15
Mason Miller — 2
Wilyer Abreu — 1

Our panel leaned heavily toward Cowser. Why do you think Miller can win AL honors?

In a wide-open award race, Miller’s elite skill set and historic whiff rates could catch voters’ eyes. It’s not like relievers haven’t won before when there wasn’t a clear, top-shelf choice (see: Devin Williams, 2020). Among rookies with 50-plus innings, his 43.4% K rate is second-best all time, .145 batting average allowed fifth-best and 1.71 FIP is ninth-best. He’ll also probably become the third rookie ever with 25-plus saves and 100-plus K’s. — Tristan Cockcroft

NL: Merrill — 13
Skenes — 4
Chourio — 1

Merrill was the favorite, but you were one of four voters to choose Skenes. Why?

Jackson Merrill is a delightful player who heads into September with the narrative momentum to capture the award — and he’d be an absolutely worthy winner. Paul Skenes is just the best pitcher in baseball, and if he finishes the season with 140 innings of sub-2.25 ERA ball, he will have earned Rookie of the Year, even over a star like Merrill. — Passan

Bold predictions for the final month

Hembekides: Juan Soto will outproduce Aaron Judge in September and finish as AL MVP runner-up behind Judge and ahead of Bobby Witt Jr.

Schoenfield: Francisco Lindor will pass Shohei Ohtani in bWAR and becomes the first Mets position player to ever lead the National League.

Castillo: The Cubs and Mets will miss the playoffs by one game.

Rogers: The National League won’t have multiple .300 hitters

Passan: I’ll take that a step further. The winner of the National League batting crown will become the first batting champion in baseball history with a sub-.300 average. Currently, Marcell Ozuna, Trea Turner and Luis Arraez are the only NL players over .300, and so few hitters can string together any sort of batting-average consistency, it makes the possibility of Carl Yastrzemski losing his record-low .301 average for a batting champion that much more realistic.

Doolittle: Maybe not so bold, but Erick Fedde, who was traded at the deadline, will finish with a team-high seven wins for the team he left, the White Sox.

Cockcroft: The Guardians summon top prospect Chase DeLauter in an attempt to improve their struggling outfield. DeLauter wins Rookie of the Month honors and helps the team steal back the division lead.

Matt Marrone: The Yankees will finally bite the bullet and DFA two-time batting champ DJ LeMahieu.

Scruggs: Marcell Ozuna will win the NL Triple Crown.

Karabell: Jacob deGrom makes his season debut on Sept. 12 at Seattle, and he throws 6 perfect innings. Jacob Latz, David Robertson and Kirby Yates finish off the first official shared perfect game.

Keown: The Tigers — yes, the Tigers — will parlay their strength of schedule (No. 27) into a late and unexpected run at the last AL wild-card spot. They’ll come up short, but there will be meaningful baseball in Detroit in the last week of September.

McDaniel: Chris Sale will win the ERA title (currently 2nd to Skubal) and become the first pitcher since Corbin Burnes in 2021 to win what I call the FanGraphs pitching quadruple crown: lead qualified pitchers in ERA, xERA, FIP, and xFIP.

Kurkjian: The Astros will win the AL West handily and will enter October as the team to beat in the American League.

Olney: We won’t have any teams finish with 100 wins, but three teams — besides the White Sox, the Marlins and Rockies — will finish with 100 defeats.