Finally, we’ve reached the business end of the MLS season. Four teams remain in contention to win the MLS Cup and hoist the Philip F. Anschutz Trophy, with three of the four semifinalists being potential first-time winners.

In a new concept that hasn’t been tried in past years, Jeff Rueter and Pablo Maurer discuss the previous round and take a look ahead to the conference finals.

Jeff: We did, Pablo. We have removed the chaff from the wheat, we have reached the good part, we have found our best selves. What I’m saying is that there’s only one team left that none of us – no one, not a single cretinous soul – believed in from the start. The rest of the clubs in the playoff field were as big as we expected before the start of the season.

Do you believe in anyone, Pablo? Anything at all?

Pablo: I believe in the uncertainty of fans of any number of teams. Let’s take a moment to address this – the players, coaches and even the owner of Austin FC have all been publicly trumpeting this “no one believes in us” nonsense all year, and it has come to a head in the playoffs. All because a bunch of MLSsoccer.com writers picked Austin to finish last, or second to last, in the Western Conference.

A few things, here:

One, as Jeff and I covered last year during our betting column that several dozen of you read, it’s impossible to predict MLS results on a weekly basis, let alone a year. I say this as someone who accurately picked NYCFC to win the MLS Cup last year.

Jeff: (Pablo never misses a chance to remind me that he grabbed NYCFC from under my nose before we had a procedure in place for that election, but he admitted it. He made that choice.)

Pablo: And two, yes, administrators and players of Austin, “no one believed in you.” Your stadium has been packed for dozens of games in a row; you have a strong and vibrant fan culture, probably one of the best in the league given the short time you’ve been here. You have a bona fide Hollywood A-lister banging on a bongo drum before matches, for whatever that’s worth. Take it easy, guys. Andrew Wiebe is not worth losing sleep over. Now Bogert on the other hand? I do not know.

Jeff: Sleep is not the right term for it. What Tom Bogert does is step under the grow light at 1:00 a.m. so his Chia mustache can regenerate.

It’s just wild to me. I remember when Minnesota United made the playoffs for the first time in 2019. Their fans were ecstatic—the team had been historically inept defensively for the first two years and had finally created a team worth cheering for. full of career winners. They brought in Ike Opara, who won defender of the year; Vito Mannone, goalkeeper of the year; Ozzie Alonso, an all time player in this league. What was the Loons’ call for their MLS Cup Playoffs debut? #Say Shh. Sometimes it seems like the haters matter more to these teams in October than their fans.

Furthermore, trust is a poor metric. Gotham believed in Harvey Dent and see how it turned out. Let’s get back to the teams worth believing in. Four left in the round which is forcing me to call it the conference finals, which admittedly sounds less sloppy than the conference semifinals.

Pablo: I believe in NYCFC – so do most people, which is what happens, I guess, when your club is financed by clandestine trillionaires and associated with one of the most recognizable sports brands in the world. In any event, City met The Montreal Foot Club™ at Stade Saputo in a match many believed Montreal would win. What we saw instead was perhaps the most professional performance of the post-season to this point, with NYCFC scoring an early goal, absorbing the pressure brilliantly in both halves and doing what they do best: finding a way to score goals out of transition play. Montreal, a team led by one of the league’s best coaches, was outplayed and outplayed for a long time at home. Not big.

Jeff: It’s kind of funny that we thought the Eastern Conference would play out differently. Last year, it looked like we had a dream conference final between NYCFC and the Philadelphia Union. However, a rampant coronavirus spread throughout the Union dressing room, leaving Jim Curtin short of a full bench for a massive game, while also missing key starters such as Andre Blake, Alejandro Bedoya, Jakob Glesnes, Kai Wagner and Jack Elliot. It was an anticlimactic 2-1 game in which New York City gave Philly a sorry own goal and the Doves won the MLS Cup.

Well, we are back with the same match and many more players may be available for selection. During ESPN’s broadcast of Austin-Dallas, Curtin told Taylor Twellman that Bedoya “wasn’t going to miss this.” It’s one of the rare times I miss the old two-legged format. I will love to watch the first game at Yankee Stadium going into a winner-takes-all second game at Subaru Park, (extreme voice of Ian Darke) where the soccer world will turn its eyes to Chester, Pennsylvania, home of Phang the Friendly Phsnake.

(Ed. Note: Please explain to me how Phang, a creature with arms and legs, is a snake. It’s a salamander.)

Pablo: Congratulations, by the way, to Union coach Jim Curtin, who literally just won the league’s coach of the year award. “I voted for Curtin” is what I would say if I hadn’t repeatedly ignored emails from the league asking me to vote for their awards.

Jeff: You were almost able to wield superpowers, Pablo, since then Curtin won by a margin of 0.1%.. Can you imagine if you were the swing vote that could push him over the line?

Pablo: Unbelievable, we almost had a “hanging chad” situation. Either way, it’s hard to bet against Philly in this matchup. See above for my thoughts on NYCFC – well built, varied in their style of play, all that – but for a 3-0, they gave Montreal, too many quality chances. Philadelphia, one of the most prolific offensive teams in league history, won’t be so kind. And at home? NYCFC might find themselves sent home on a Delaware River water taxi captained by Nick Cushing, which is a free idea for the league to use in one of those silly cartoons it keeps putting out.

Jeff: I will join you as a Union man on this. I picked Philadelphia to win the MLS Cup once the bracket was set, and I’ve seen little evidence to suggest they won’t do well with it. FC Cincinnati provided a real threat, not backing down and starting each half as the aggressors. However, Blake saved their ham on numerous occasions and gave his side time to break down Pat Noonan’s 3-4-1-2 and give Leon Flach a chance to score his once-a-year goal in a big moment.

Seriously, he scored exactly once in 2021 and has now matched that total with a playoff clinic. I respect efficiency. In the West, we have Austin FC taking on Los Angeles FC as they try to beat Steve Cherundolo’s side for the third time this year. Do you think they can do it? And beware: if you say no, Felipe Martins will find where you sleep.

Pablo: A scary proposition. I covered Felipe, who is a nice guy off the field, during his time in DC. I’ve also heard more current and former players — let’s say a dozen — rank him as their most hated opponent and one of the dirtiest players in league history. The man contains multitudes. You have to respect it. Or not. I’m not here to judge.

I don’t think Austin has it in them, sorry. It’s less about how the team has come together and trained and more about their opponent, frankly, and the venue. Make no mistake, if Austin knocks off LAFC, you have to consider it one of the biggest upsets in MLS playoff history. Who knows. Maybe Brad Stuver stands over his head and keeps Austin in the game long enough to allow Sebastian Driussi to come up with a moment of magic. Anything is possible – and I mean anything: I predict Austin FC to finish last in 2023.

Jeff: At first glance, I wanted to fight the “biggest upset” line, but from the egalitarian nature of MLS, I’m not sure there are true upsets most years. LAFC are deserved favorites and the atmosphere at Banc Stadium in California is incredible, although I have some concerns about their form since bringing in Gareth Bale and Giorgio Chielini. At the time, it seemed like the rich were getting richer. Chielini integrated well enough, allowing LAFC to loan Mamadou Fall — one of my favorite new players in MLS this year — to Villarreal CF B to test his European readiness.

But Bale’s experiment? The only clear winner so far has been the rest of World Cup Group B. I can’t blame them for a gamble, but he was seen on the pitch after their win at El Trafico giving his teammates flowers. He was listed as out with a leg injury, but there was no lame, well-fitted khaki for the occasion. Except his amazing goal against RSLI’m not sure he added anything to the team on the pitch – which may be evidence that he was less than willing to work towards fitness 90 minutes than many of us thought.

Pablo: It wouldn’t be out of place to point out that LAFC-Austin is the first time in league history that two owners who were featured on the HBO classic Eastbound & Down have met in an MLS playoff game. They say that this league and American football has no culture. But I ask you this, Jeff: which MLS coach is the Stevie Janowski of the league? Has MLS ever had its own Kenny Powers? Should the league finally do the right thing and expand to Myrtle Beach?

Jeff: I can’t wait for American soccer to stop expanding and just…improve the product in each league with a stable group of teams. Steve Janowski is your teams youngest home midfielder who came into the lineup regularly but I’m not sure there has ever been a Kenny Powers.

I think Austin has the goods to make this a very close game. Ultimately, they won the teams’ two regular season games by a 6-2 margin. For me, it will depend on the midfield. If Danny Pereira stays in the lineup over Jhojan Valencia and Alexander Ring is able to integrate into the attacking third to great effect, this will be closer than many expect. If the midfield can’t do its job, though, I could see Austin’s back line being overwhelmed – not a good proposition against the front three of Denis Bouanga, Chicho Arango and Carlos Vela.

Pablo: Speaking of overwork, I have to get back to my current job: debunking the nonsense of American football history. This has been a good break, Jeff. It always is. Even if the comments are sometimes kind of mean.

Jeff: Let the haters do their thing, Pablo. Nobody believes in us.

(Photo: John Jones-USA TODAY Sports)



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