MLS Playoff Picks: Explaining the new format and who will win the MLS Cup

After nine months, 493 games, 1,359 goals scored, a domestic cup and a first-of-its-kind League Cup, we’re finally down to the business of MLS season: playoffs, culminating with MLS Cup.

until Inter Miami AND Lionel Messi are heading to China to play postseason friendlies, 18 of the league’s 29 teams are preparing for the month-and-a-half playoff period starting Wednesday and Thursday, with the eighth and ninth seeds in both the conferences will play a single game to determine who will face their conference’s top seed in the first round of the playoffs.

Playoff format:

The playoffs underwent a revamp this season, with two straight wild-card games followed by a best-of-three series in the first round of the playoffs. Each match in the first round must have a winner and will be played in a home-away format, giving the top team up to two chances to claim a win in front of their home fans. Play-in and first round matches will go straight to penalty kicks if the score is tied after regulation.

If a team makes it past the first round, the conference semifinals await, which will be a traditional one-game elimination game hosted by the top seed. Those games will have two 15-minute overtime periods if the score is tied at the end of regulation, with penalty kicks used to tie if things are still tied after overtime. This format will continue for the conference finals and the MLS Cup Final, scheduled for Dec. 9, hosted by whichever participating team accumulated the most points during the regular season.

The playoffs are a sure bet to be exciting, dramatic and unpredictable, but Athletics The football staff (Tom Bogert, Elias Burke, Felipe Cardenas, Pablo Maurer, Jeff Rueter and Paul Tenorio) have done our best in picking the winners.

Game round

No team left the final day of the season on a more positive note than the Red Bulls and Sporting KC. Whether it was late penalty kicks (Red Bulls) or a dominant home performance (Kansas City), the two sides earned the hosting rights in galvanizing fashion. Charlotte FCHis presence in the play-in round already marks a successful second season in MLS as San Jose struggled with inconsistency, but there is much to build on in 2024 and beyond under coach Luchi Gonzalez. – Jeff Rueter

The first round

The city of St — picked by many (including most of us!) to finish last in the West this year — is likely to continue Cinderella’s run. of Houston Dynamo, long a conference doormat, has proven to be one of the West’s most entertaining teams all year. Fresh from capturing the US Open Cup and very fit, they feel like a safe bet to advance. – Pablo Maurer

St. Louis stunned MLS by finishing atop the Western Conference, and yet for some reason I can’t shake the feeling that they’re primed for a playoff upset. They beat SKC in two of their three games this season by a combined 8-1, and yet I’m still making this upset pick. – Paul Tenorio

Houston vs. RSL should be a blast. Coming into the playoffs, they were two of my top three teams from the West in terms of MLS Cup potential and are two of the most tactically adaptable teams in the league this year. – Jeff Rueter

Although they may be without them for Game 1, I think Atlanta will get big performances from their big-play players, forward Giorgos Giakoumakis and the midfielder Thiago Almadain games two and three to beat one of the best teams in MLS. Cincinnati and the Red Bulls both like to press high, which could make for a fun series, but I like Cincy to take it. – Paul Tenorio

I’m picking a lot of boring favorites, I know, I get it, but these really seem like the most reasonable choices. Nashville it would be a sexier upset pick if they hadn’t been shut out in four of their last five games. – Tom Bogert

I’m once again rooting for the best-of-three round to advance to the conference semifinals. On paper, these aren’t the strongest matchups to use as a showcase of the league’s abilities. For example, the two teams in the coldest form in the entire 18-team field are Philadelphia AND New England, both averaging 1.0 points per game over their last seven games. Ideally, you’ll make it to the next round for the real magic to happen between the heavyweights. Foam plays a forgiving best-of-three format here. – Jeff Rueter

Conference Semifinals

I think an LAFC vs. Seattle game could be really fun and one of the hardest games to predict. – Paul Tenorio

Dinamo, as its captain Hector Herrera he told me earlier this year, is a difficult team to unlock due to their lack of a consistent style, which makes them adaptable to all kinds of different situations. This will help them cope with playing away in St. Louis, as most of us predict. – Pablo Maurer

It’s all coming down to Ohio! – Tom Bogert

The prospect of Cincinnati and Philadelphia meeting is enticing. On these two great teams, you have two of the most loyal fans in the league and two of the league’s preeminent sideline tacticians and motivators, Philadelphia’s Jim Curtin and Cincy’s Pat Noonan. The connections between the two sides make it even more dramatic — Noonan was previously an assistant under Curtin and Cincinnati general manager Chris Albright was the Union’s technical director before both left to lead a turnaround in Ohio. Philly will certainly have a shot here, but it’s hard to bet against the MLS MVP candidate Luciano AcostaUSMNT forward Brandon Vasquez, Noonan and the rest of the Queen City group.

Orlando vs. Columbus it would probably be the matchup of the postseason, featuring two of the league’s most in-form and most entertaining teams. However, Orlando’s ability to take advantage of the break should be effective against Columbus’ sometimes erratic defensive structure, giving them an edge in what could be an instant classic. – Pablo Maurer

Big Duncan McGuire It’s been a revelation for the offense in Orlando and I think they’re primed for a playoff run. A game against Atlanta at this stage would reignite what has been an intense rivalry between the teams, and that’s always fun to watch. – Paul Tenorio

Conference Finals

ARE Seattle Sounders most entertaining team in the league? Not by a long shot. But they may be the most prepared thanks to coach Brian Schmetzer, one of the most pragmatic coaches in MLS. – Pablo Maurer

Seattle still feels inevitable, doesn’t it? After a strong opening quarter, the Sounders slept through most of the regular season and felt a little stale. But now they’re the hottest team in the West (1.9 points per game in last seven) and in prime position to make a late run in MLS’ final season for the Uruguayan. Nicolas Lodeirowho announced that he would leave the club after this season. – Jeff Rueter

The Crew is this year’s equivalent of “every musician’s favorite band,” fronted by former Montreal Impact boss Wilfried Nancy. In a league full of forgettable teams, the Crew is rarely scary to watch (that’s why they topped our viewing rankings).

Houston has exceeded all expectations in 2023, but I can’t see them making the MLS Cup. – Pablo Maurer

MLS Cup

LAFC won the Shield/MLS Cup double last year, the first in MLS since Toronto FC did it in 2017. They have the league’s leading scorer in Denis Bouanga, playoff experience from last year and a solid coach in Steve Cherundolo. Cincy has the chops to do it, too. Like all other championship races, however, it will take some luck. – Tom Bogert

A sign for the team that has been the best in the league this season, FC Cincy will have a chance to complete its multi-year turnaround, going from worst to first. But I think LAFC will play spoiler in one of the best stories in MLS this season and win on the road in Cincy. – Paul Tenorio

(Feature photos: Getty Images)