The second half of the NASCAR Cup Series regular season arrived like a fist to the jaw on Sunday night.
Thanks again for the content, Ricky!
Certainly, there was plenty of buzz as the lights went down in North Wilkesboro, with Ricky Stenhouse Jr. landing a right cross to Kyle Busch’s face.
No one could’ve seen that coming. And when it comes to this sport, especially in the Gen-7 era, making predictions is a dangerous game.
NASCAR FIGHT:Ricky Stenhouse Jr. punches Kyle Busch, Ford punches winning ticket | Speed Freaks
But like ol’ Rick, we’re willing to take a swing! And the Stenhouse roundhouse is just one of several storylines afoot in the NASCAR world these days.
Who gets into the playoffs and conversely, who misses out? Will we see more upset winners like Daniel Suarez? And what about this Stewart-Haas fire-sale rumor, and if true, who ends up with those four charters?
Well, here goes! Someone hold our watch as we go through the gears!
Kyle Busch, Ross Chastain to miss the playoffs (First gear)
When it comes to the playoff standings, eight drivers (Denny Hamlin, William Byron, Kyle Larson, Chase Elliott, Tyler Reddick, Brad Keselowski, Christopher Bell and Suarez) are safe with wins.
With 13 races to decide eight spots, there’s bound to be some surprises.
So, how about this: Busch and Ross Chastain miss the playoffs.
Logano is fresh off an All Star win with momentum. Bubba Wallace has shown more consistent speed than either of them. And between Noah Gragson, Michael McDowell, Austin Cindric, Josh Berry and Stenhouse, to name a few, you’ve got to figure one or two guys steal a win.
All of them are currently on the outside looking in and a victory by any would move someone out. Don’t be surprised if it’s Rowdy or the Melon Man.
| Driver | Wins | Points |
| 1. Denny Hamlin | 3 | 447 |
| 2. William Byron | 3 | 400 |
| 3. Kyle Larson | 2 | 486 |
| 4. Chase Elliott | 1 | 437 |
| 5. Tyler Reddick | 1 | 396 |
| 6. Brad Keselowski | 1 | 344 |
| 7. Christopher Bell | 1 | 320 |
| 8. Daniel Suarez | 1 | 263 |
| 9. Martin Truex Jr. | 0 | 456 |
| 10. Ty Gibbs | 0 | 390 |
| 11. Ryan Blaney | 0 | 371 |
| 12. Alex Bowman | 0 | 365 |
| 13. Ross Chastain | 0 | 358 |
| 14. Chris Buescher | 0 | 331 |
| 15. Kyle Busch | 0 | 324 |
| 16. Chase Briscoe | 0 | 322 |
| 17. Bubba Wallace | 0 | 316 (-6) |
| 18. Joey Logano | 0 | 292 (-30) |
| 19. Noah Gragson | 0 | 239 (-83) |
| 20. Austin Cindric | 0 | 232 (-90) |
| 21. Josh Berry | 0 | 230 (-92) |
| 22. Todd Gilliland | 0 | 217 (-105) |
| 23. Michael McDowell | 0 | 212 (-110) |
| t-24. John Hunter Nemechek | 0 | 211 (-111) |
| t-24. Carson Hocevar | 0 | 211 (-111) |
| 26. Ricky Stenhouse Jr. | 0 | 200 (-122) |
| 27. Erik Jones | 0 | 199 (-123) |
| 28. Ryan Preece | 0 | 192 (-130) |
| 29. Corey LaJoie | 0 | 187 (-135) |
| 30. Daniel Hemric | 0 | 179 (-143) |
| 31. Austin Dillon | 0 | 167 (-155) |
| 32. Justin Haley | 0 | 162 (-160) |
| 33. Harrison Burton | 0 | 144 (-178) |
| 34. Kaz Grala | 0 | 119 (-203) |
| 35. Zane Smith | 0 | 109 (-213) |
Joey Logano, Michael McDowell, Noah Gragson to win races (Second gear)
Yeah we know, picking who could win isn’t good enough.
So here: Logano gets a win, Wallace either gets a win or is good enough on points, McDowell wins at either Sonoma, Chicago or Indianapolis (the oval this time) and Gragson wins the Summer Daytona race.
How’s that?
Dale Earnhardt Jr. will buy two Cup Series charters (Third gear)
By now, we’re not breaking news on the rumors that Stewart-Haas racing will sell its four charters and shut down next year.
Assuming that happens, who ends up with them?
There are plenty of suitors: 23XI, RFK, Front Row, Kaulig and Trackhouse to name a few. But with the price tag predicted to come down from the $40-plus million Spire spent last year to the $20-30 million range, maybe more are in play.
Like, say, Dale Earnhardt Jr.?
If not now, then when for a man who just signed what’s bound to be a gazillion-dollar contract to call races for Amazon and TNT next year and who has expressed interest in owning Cup Series teams in the past?
So our call? Junior gets two to expand the JR Motorsports operation, Trackhouse and 23XI each get one.
Denny Hamlin will drive for his own team (Fourth gear)
In that scenario, who goes where?
Junior’s two cars come down to the hung-out-to-dry Gragson and Berry, both of whom were groomed in the JR Motorsports Xfinity Series program prior to SHR, or Sam Mayer, who’s currently driving for Earnhardt in the Xfinity Series.
Another 23XI car gives Hamlin the option to come over and end his career driving for his own team either next year or in 2026 with a place-holder driver hired in the meantime.
And Trackhouse has several drivers in the pipeline, most notably Shane van Gisbergen, Zane Smith and eventually, Connor Zilisch, the 17-year-old prodigy that, as we told you back in January, is a star in the making.
