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Who will make what will be the most-anticipated women’s Final Four in years?
The action picks up Friday in the Albany and Portland Regionals.
On Friday, No. 2 Notre Dame and No. 3 Oregon open action in the first Albany Regional, followed by No. 1 South Carolina and No. 4 Indiana. Will that result in a chalk Elite Eight matchup between the Gamecocks and Irish?
The first Portland regional also features the top four seeds. No. 2 Stanford takes on No. 3 NC State, and No. 1 Texas faces No. 4 Gonzaga.
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On Saturday, the action heats up in the second Albany regional. No. 2 UCLA meets No. 3 LSU, and No. 1 Iowa meets No. 5 Colorado. Will that lead to a rematch of last year’s national championship between the Tigers and Hawkeyes?
The second Portland Regional features the least chalk. No. 1 USC takes on No. 5 Baylor, and No. 3 UConn meets No. 7 Duke.
Here are our picks for the women’s Sweet 16 matchups on Friday and Saturday. Odds courtesy of BetMGM.com.
Women’s Sweet 16 picks, predictions
Friday, March 29
- No. 2 Notre Dame (-3.5) vs. No. 3 Oregon State (Regional 1, Albany)
Notre Dame is on a 10-game winning streak, and the Irish are shooting 47.8% from 3-point range from the start of the ACC tournament. It’s not just freshman Hannah Hidalgo – who averages 16.5 points and 7.5 assists in the first two rounds. Oregon State forward Raegan Beers (17.5 ppg., 10.2 rpg.) remains a force, and the Beavers allowed just 59.3 points per game. If it comes down to free throws late, Notre Dame shoots 76.2%.
Pick: Notre Dame 70, Oregon State 65
- No. 1 South Carolina (-15.5) vs. No. 4 Indiana (Regional 1, Albany)
The Gamecocks won their first two tournament games by an average of 49.5 points – and they limited their opponents to 26% shooting from the floor. Dawn Staley has the best field-goal percentage defense in the nation, and they have eight players in the rotation who can lead the team in scoring. Kamilla Cardoso had 12 points and 10 rebounds in her return from a one-game suspension, and the matchup with MacKenzie Holmes – who averaged 21 points and six rounds in the first weekend – will be key. Indiana will have to shoot better than its 39.6% three-point percentage to have a chance for an upset. The Hoosiers won the last meeting between the teams 71-57 at the Paradise Jam in 2019.
Pick: South Carolina 80, Indiana 63
- No. 2 Stanford (-4.5) vs. No. 3 NC State (Regional 4, Portland)
Stanford shook off Iowa State 87-81 in the second round, and star forward Cameron Brink will have to stay out of foul trouble this time. Brink had a string of six straight double-doubles broken in that victory. NC State is back in the Sweet 16 after knocking out Tennessee 79-72. Five NC State players average double figures, led by guards Aziaha James and Saniya Rivers. They combined for 42 points in the second round. Can the Wolpack keep it close enough on the rebounding to spring an upset?
Pick: Stanford 72, NC State 70
- No. 1 Texas (-5.5) vs. No. 4 Gonzaga (Regional 4, Portland)
The Longhorns are a team that can dominate the rebounding battle. Texas out-rebounded its first two tournament opponents 89-42, and freshman Madison Booker (16.8 ppg., 4.9 rpg.) and senior Taylor Jones (12.4, 6.4 rpg.) present a huge challenge for the Bulldogs in the front court. Gonzaga forward Yvonne Ejim averaged 21 points and 13.5 rebounds in the first two rounds. Gonzaga is the best 3-point shooting team in the nation at 40.1% and has four players who shoot 40% or better from that range, led by Brynna Maxwell (44.5%). If those 3-pointers fall, then the Bulldogs will have a chance to make it interesting.
Pick: Texas 83, Gonzaga 70
SN AWARDS: 2024 All-America team | Player of the Year | Coach of the Year
Saturday, March 30
- No. 2 UCLA vs. No. 3 LSU (-3.5) (Regional 2, Albany)
This is the most-intriguing matchup of the Sweet 16 because these are the two best teams in the country when it comes to rebounding margin. UCLA (14.2) has the size to match up with 6-7 center Laurent Betts, and 6-4 forward Angela Dugalic. Betts averaged 18.5 points and 14 rebounds in the first two rounds. LSU counters with Angel Reese (18.7 points, 13.2 rpg.) and Aneesah Morrow (16.5 ppg., 10.0 rpg.). Who gets in foul trouble among those players? LSU’s Flau’jae Johnson – who has made 7 of 13 three-pointers in her last five games – makes the clutch shot in a thriller.
Pick: LSU 73, UCLA 71
- No. 1 Iowa (-7.5) vs. No. 5 Colorado (Regional 2, Albany)
The Hawkeyes were pushed in the second round by West Virginia, but they made the plays in crunch time. Iowa is a volume 3-point shooting team that leads the nation with 11.1 three-pointers made per game. Caitlin Clark averaged 29.5 points and shot 44% from 3-point range in the first weekend of the tournament, and forward Hannah Stuelke had 12 points and 11 rebounds. She continues to be the X-factor, and that will matter against Colorado. Center Aaronette Vonleh is the Buffaloes’ leading scorer, and Quay Miller is another 6-foot center that averages 9.0 points per game. Watch that inside battle, but Clark and the 3-point game will be the difference.
Pick: Iowa 86, Colorado 77
MORE: Caitlin Clark leaves mark in final home game
- No. 1 USC (-3.5) vs. No. 5 Baylor (Regional 4, Portland)
Lindsay Gottlieb has the Trojans playing great basketball at the right time. USC won its first two tournament games by an average of 25 points per game, and JuJu Watkins averaged 25.5 points, eight rebounds and 4.5 assists on the first weekend. How does Baylor contend with that all-around performance? The Bears shot 35.8% from 3-point range in the first weekend – which will have to be better. The Bears are going to speed up the Trojans with the press, but will it work? USC ranks 12th in the nation in fewest turnovers (12.2). That will help the Trojans reach the Elite Eight for the first time since 1994.
Pick: USC 79, Baylor 68
- No. 3 UConn (-7.5) vs. No. 7 Duke (Regional 4, Portland)
Is UConn still flying under the radar here? The Huskies won their first two tournament games by an average of 17 points per game, and Geno Aurimema is more than capable of returning to the Final Four. Paige Bueckers averaged 30 points and 10.5 rebounds in the first two rounds. Duke has balance under coach Kara Lawson. The Blue Devils have seven players that average at least five points per game, and Duke limited Ohio State to a 40.7% shooting percentage in the second round. It would take a similar defensive effort to pull the upset here.
Pick: UConn 75, Duke 65
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