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Mark Schlabach, ESPN Senior Writer
Tron, Scotland — Scottish weather turned the 152nd Open Golf Championship at Royal Troon Golf Club into a day of survival on Saturday.
Ireland’s Shane Lowry moved from the lead to ninth in the blink of an eye. The 2019 Openship winner wasn’t the only one to fall victim to the cold rain and strong winds, especially in the second round of nine.
“I think this is the hardest nine holes you can ever play in golf right now,” said two-time major championship winner Dustin Johnson.
Although skies are expected to be clearer in Sunday’s final, winds could be a factor.
One thing is clear: it’s set to be a thrilling finale with 12 players within four strokes of leader Billy Horschel. Here’s a look at the top contenders for the Claret Trophy:
Billy Horschel (4 under)
Why he will win: All is well now for Horschel, who has bounced back from a tough 2023 season with some great golf. He won the Corales Puntacana Championship, an opposite-field event, on April 21 and finished eighth at the PGA Championship.
This week, Horschel leads the pack in strokes gained: total (12.24) and is sixth in approach (6.10), 14th around the green (2.35) and 17th from the tee (2.76). On Saturday, he did a great job around the green, getting up and down from the greenside bunkers to make a birdie on the 4th hole and making saves on the 14th and 16th holes.
Why he won’t win: Horschel never surrendered a 54-hole lead in a major championship. He did not even play the last 18 holes of a major championship, finishing fifth just once in 42 appearances.
“I love it,” Horschel said. “I’ve worked my whole life to be in this position. Look, I’ve been in the lead a few times going into the final round. Obviously, this is a major championship. It means a little bit more than that. We all know that. We know what this means to everybody. I know what this means to my legacy in golf and what I want to do and accomplish.”
“But I’m excited to be here. I’ve wanted to be here my whole life. I’m finally here. I embrace it.”
Why he will win: He has shaken off the majors after finally winning the Wanamaker Cup at the PGA Championship in May. He has been the most consistent player in majors this season, finishing eighth at the Masters and tied for seventh at the U.S. Open. He has finished in at least the top 10 in majors every season since turning professional in 2017.
Why he won’t win: Will the golf gods not let him get greedy? He would become the first golfer since Brooks Koepka in 2018 (US Open and PGA Championship) to win two majors in a single season. His putter has been in good form this week, but he has been known to get cold at inopportune times, too.
Why he will win: He’s been too late. The five-time PGA Tour champion hadn’t played well in major tournaments until this week, finishing in the top 10 just once in his last 17 starts. He looked to have made a big step up when he tied for ninth at the U.S. Open in June. He’s so talented he can’t afford to miss out on a better Grand Slam.
Why he won’t win: Burns was another golfer who benefited from an early lead. He scored eight strokes in his round of 65 under par. Can Burns keep up? He ranks third in strokes gained (5.70) in golf. He would become the first golfer since Jack Fleck at the 1955 U.S. Open to win a major championship after opening the round with a 76 or worse.
Why he will win: The Englishman is also expected to have a supportive crowd. He has more experience than almost all the other competitors, having played in 21 Opens. He has avoided making mistakes with just four or worse in the first 54 holes.
Why he won’t win: History is not on Rose’s side. No Englishman has won the US Open since Nick Faldo in 1992. If Rose wins, it will be 4,053 days since his last major win at the 2013 US Open. That would be the longest stretch in history. Julius Boros went 4,026 days between his 1952 US Open win and his 1963 US Open win.
Why he will win: South African Sam Burns tied for the best round on Saturday with a 65-under par. He also recorded six birdies in eight holes on his way to 30 shots in the first nine rounds. He is a four-time winner on the DP World Tour, so he has won before.
Why he won’t win: Lawrence began the third round 10 strokes behind leader Shane Lowry, and he certainly had a chance with an early tee time. He didn’t have to play in the cold rain and strong winds on the back nine. He will play in the final group on Sunday at Horshill, something he has never done in a major championship. His previous best finish in a major was a tie for 42nd at the 2022 Open at St Andrews in Scotland.
Why he will win: Few golfers on Tour have controlled the ball like Henley, who shot 66 under par on Saturday. He made six birdies in the first 12 holes and had just one error on the 15th. Henley ranks seventh in strokes gained: approach (6.09) this week and has hit 70.4 percent of his greens on time.
Why he won’t win: Henley has struggled in the past when competing in major championships. At the 2021 U.S. Open at Torrey Pines outside San Diego, he held a lead in each of the first three rounds. He shot a 76-over-par in the final round to tie for 13th. He shot a 67-under in the final round of the U.S. Open in June to tie for seventh.
Why he will win: It’s a Cinderella story and he’ll have the crowds cheering him on. Brown, the 29-year-old son of a pig and cattle farmer, isn’t supposed to be anywhere near the top of the leaderboard. He took the lead after hitting a 20-foot putt on the 18th hole of the playoffs. He’s failed to score in six of his last eight starts on the DP World Tour.
More often than not, Brown has shown nerves of steel while competing against the world’s best players this week. Brown has a very powerful putter, and leads the pack in strokes gained: put (7.67), having consumed more than 328 feet of putt.
Why wouldn’t he do it: Golfers do not win major championships on their debut. He will become the fourth golfer since 1900 to win on his debut in a major championship — Francis Ouimet (1913 U.S. Open), Ben Curtis (2003 Open Championship) and Keegan Bradley (2011 PGA Championship).
Why he will win: The world No. 1 golfer has won six times this season, including his second Masters victory in April. He has come from behind after 36 holes in six of his 11 career PGA Tour victories, including three when trailing by six or more strokes: the 2022 WM Phoenix Open, the 2022 Arnold Palmer Invitational and the Players Championship in March.
Scheffler hasn’t been at his best at Royal Troon this week, but the leaders haven’t gone far off the pace, so he’s still within striking distance on the scoreboard.
Why he won’t win: Scheffler hasn’t dropped many short strokes this week. He ranks 114th in strokes gained (-1.61) over the first 54 holes and was 78th out of 80 players (-3.20) on Saturday. Sooner or later, Scheffler’s short strokes are expected to start dropping — or maybe not.
“It was another one of those days,” Scheffler said. “I think about the shots I hit on holes 8 and 9 where I looked up and thought the ball was going in, but it went up and out. They’re not real surfaces. They’re really good for fairways, but they’re not perfect, and the ball goes off the line and doesn’t go in.”
“It might be frustrating, but I felt like today was another one of those days where I did a really good job of not getting too frustrated, staying in a good frame of mind and doing a really good job of staying in the tournament.”
Shane Lowry (1 under)
Why he will win: He led the second round and was on a fast run until he ran into trouble on the par-3 eighth hole on Saturday. After double-faulting on the hole known as the Postage Stamp, he made five errors on the final nine to post a six-over-par 76. Even then, he weathered the wind and rain better than anyone else in the field.
Why he won’t win: Lowry looked completely out of sorts, missing two putts from about five feet. He hit his putt on the 18th hole, two rows from the bleachers. Perhaps his magic has disappeared. Can he regain his confidence after such a memorable finish on Saturday?
Why he will win: After struggling to maintain his place in the tournament over the weekend, Thomas birdied six of the first 12 holes on Saturday to close in on his goal. He is one of the best players in the world with a powerful putter in his hands and a great deal of creativity around the greens. He has won the PGA Championship twice and has performed under pressure before. He is using a new putter and has been electrifying on the greens, posting a 3.37 strokes on the course.
Why he won’t win: Thomas has not been great over the past two seasons, and his form has been a bit inconsistent. He shot 68-under in the first round, then followed that up with a 78-over on Saturday.
Why he will win: The 44-year-old former Masters champion relishes the opportunity to play on a good course and looked quite at home at Royal Troon, especially on Saturday when he shot 66 under par before the rain set in. His work around the green was impressive, with him gaining three strokes on the course.
Why he won’t win: Scott never imagined he would be competing with so many golfers when he left the course on Saturday. He may be too late with so many great players ahead of him.
“Well, I probably won’t be a favorite, to be honest,” Scott said. “I’ll probably be nine shots down, seven to nine shots down, I think. If I’m down, that’s good, but I’m going to need the wind and everything in my favor to be a favorite.”
The wind was in his favor and he only had four shots left.
