Monaco rewards confidence, and Charles Leclerc seemed to have plenty of it on Friday, as he set a commanding pace at his home event. But does the Ferrari driver truly have the speed to end his poor form in Monaco – and is reigning world champion Max Verstappen really on the backfoot? Let’s crunch some numbers…

Ferrari live up to pre-event hype

Heading to Monaco, our simulations suggested Ferrari would marginally be the team to beat, the Italian squad holding around 0.06s advantage over championship leaders Red Bull – and they more than lived up to that expectation on the opening day of practice.

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