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Nick Waggoner, ESPN Writer
MINNEAPOLIS — Whether watching game tape or checking out the stats, Christian McCaffrey’s value to the San Francisco 49ers is undeniable.
McCaffrey is widely regarded as the best player in the league, largely because he is not constrained by the constraints of that job title.
Need a strong run through the offensive line? McCaffrey can handle that. Need a quick run to catch the ball and get a first down? No one does it better. Need a quick snap to buy an extra second to make a big play? He gets it done more often than not.
Which is why, despite the excellent work that substitute Jordan Mason has done in the first two weeks, there is an undeniable fact: there is no one to replace McCaffrey.
“He was the offensive player of the year for a reason,” tight end George Kittle said. “He was in the player of the game for a reason. He scored over 20 goals for a reason. He does everything in the passing game, the running game, I mean it’s really fun. He gives us another dimension.”
It’s that dimension that the 49ers again missed in their disappointing 23-17 loss to the Minnesota Vikings on Sunday, and he’ll miss at least three more games, and possibly longer, as McCaffrey recovers from Achilles tendinitis that put him on the injured reserve list on Saturday.
In many ways, McCaffrey’s absence hasn’t necessarily slowed San Francisco’s offense through the first two weeks. Most numbers show the 49ers as one of the best units in the league.
The San Francisco 49ers are fifth in the NFL in yards per game (400), sixth in offensive efficiency (74.83), and ninth in expected offensive points added (6.3). But those numbers would be even better if the 49ers could improve their third-down play. Logic dictates that improving their third-down play would allow them to stay on the field and, presumably, complete more plays in the end zone.
Against the Vikings, San Francisco managed 3-of-13 third- and fourth-down attempts, including an incomplete fourth-and-goal on Minnesota’s second throw, which quickly turned into a 97-yard touchdown pass from linebacker Sam Darnold to linebacker Justin Jefferson. It’s no coincidence that San Francisco managed just 17 points.
“I thought we scored two out of nine on the third attempt which usually doesn’t lead to goals unless you score all the goals on the first and second attempt,” coach Kyle Shanahan said. “One out of three on the fourth attempt doesn’t help… It was a big challenge today and we can improve.”
It’s a small sample, but over two weeks, the 49ers rank 19th in third-down conversions (34.8%) and 18th in red zone touchdown percentage (44.4%). With McCaffrey in 2023, the 49ers rank fourth (47.5%) and first (67.2%) in the league in those categories.
If you ask your teammates about McCaffrey, many will compare his “charm” to that of Golden State Warriors guard Stephen Curry. The idea here is that McCaffrey, like Curry, has the ability to draw in multiple defenders at any given time, thus opening up plenty of opportunities for others to make big plays.
San Francisco 49ers quarterback Brock Purdy said he can see at least one way defenses have changed the way they handle San Francisco without McCaffrey.
“I think just being able to step back into the zone and not have to put two guys on a quarterback coming out of the backfield like Christian,” Purdy said. “Brian Flores is in his scheme and he did what he did on tape today and they’re really good at it. So, for me to sit here and say without Christian on the field they wouldn’t have done this or that, it’s hard to tell.”
That example was on display in multiple ways on Sunday. In McCaffrey’s absence, the running back responsibility falls to Mason, who has played in two games and run for over 100 yards each. Mason has proven he can handle the lion’s share of the ball, and there are some intriguing possibilities for how he and McCaffrey could be used in unison if McCaffrey returns.
Under normal circumstances, Purdy can drop back, and if there’s nothing open on the field, he can send an easy pass to McCaffrey for a first down.
That didn’t happen against the Vikings as Purdy completed just one pass for 4 yards to non-playing running back Kyle Juszczyk. Mason is still developing as a pass-catching threat with two catches for 9 yards on the season. McCaffrey ranked third in receptions (67), second in receiving yards (564) and first in receiving touchdowns (seven) among all running backs last season.
Not only did that mean wasted turnovers in the third minute, it left Purdy looking for openings that were never open. The result was Purdy racking up a career-high sacks and 13 pressures in Minnesota.
Over two weeks, the 49ers are tied with the Jacksonville Jaguars for the highest rate of sacks allowed per return (11.7%) in the NFL despite those sacks coming in the second-slowest average time in the league (5.76 seconds).
In other words, Purdy is under more pressure to hold the ball too long because he doesn’t have the reliable McCaffrey, who led the NFL in first downs (114) and touchdowns (21) in 2023, to throw to him when the field coverage is good.
It’s unclear how long McCaffrey will be sidelined. The Achilles tendon injury has been difficult to diagnose because of its unpredictability. Since being placed on the injured list, he will miss at least the next three games against the Rams, Patriots and Cardinals. “Nobody knows” how long McCaffrey will be sidelined, Shanahan said after Sunday’s game.
As long as he stays in charge, the 49ers offense is sure to keep moving the ball. Whether they can consistently move the ball past first downs and into the end zones enough to stay among the NFC’s elite will depend on how well they can adapt without their superstar.
“We have the players, we have the plan, we have what it takes,” Purdy said. “That’s football. Just because you have really good players and a good plan doesn’t mean the other team is going to give you that. You have to go out and earn it.”
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