USWNT betting favorite vs. Brazil for gold medal at Paris Olympics

After disappointing at the 2023 Women’s World Cup, the United States Women’s National Team is once again the favorite in a major soccer tournament final after entering the Olympics with rare plus odds.

The USWNT sports -225 odds to win the gold medal against Brazil’s +160, while the three-way line shows the U.S. as the -105 favorite and Brazil as the +300 underdog as of Thursday afternoon on ESPN BET.

The odds of regular time ending in a draw are +210. Both of the USWNT’s knockout stage matches at the Paris Games went to extra time, and both previous Olympic gold medal matchups between the USA and Brazil (in 2004 and 2008) ended in regular-time draws, with Team USA prevailing both times.

Despite 86% of bets and 94.6% of handle for USA on the three-way line, the price has actually lengthened from the opener of -115, per ESPN BET. The same goes for Brazil, which opened at +270, but the draw has shortened slightly from the opener at +215.

Other sportsbooks report similarly strong numbers on the USWNT, though it’s worth noting that 48% of bets are on Brazil to take home the gold at ESPN BET (with only 43% of the handle). BetMGM says that the USWNT winning in extra time (+825) is one of its most popular props.

The USWNT, long a powerhouse in women’s soccer, was around a -175 favorite ahead of the 2020 Olympics — but after failing to win gold in that tournament and flaming out of the World Cup, the Americans entered this year’s Olympic fray at +190, placing them behind Spain (+175) on the odds board. Spain was ultimately relegated to the bronze medal match after falling to Brazil in the semis.

Aside from the home country appeal, this gave the USWNT a healthy portion of gold medal future bets at American sportsbooks, with FanDuel reporting 74% of handle and DraftKings reporting 82% of handle — though, interestingly, Spain (51%) had more tickets at the sportsbook than USA (42%).

Interest in Olympic women’s soccer has increased as the tournament has progressed: ESPN BET says that its five most-bet matches of the event were all in the knockout stages, with the USWNT vs. Germany in the semifinals and the USWNT vs. Japan in the quarterfinals topping the list.