The 2024 MLS season is now roughly a quarter complete, with teams having played between six and eight games at the time of writing. That leaves us with enough data to start tracking how teams are playing, and one way to do that will be to look at each team’s goals added, a metric created by American football analysis.
Added goals (or g+) predicts the probabilities of goals with each touch, not just shots like expected goals (xG) do. The g+ stat is worth paying attention to because it can measure the value of possessions that can create danger without ending up with a touchdown. All of these additional data points make it a more sensitive stat for evaluating teams early in the season, when we still don’t have much information to go on from small samples of points, goals and shots.
But given what we have, here’s how things have changed from last season:
Chart by John Muller
Keep in mind that g+ is not a direct measure of a team’s strength; A team’s overall strength is still affected by the schedule, state of play, player absences and other factors. However, g+ tells us how well a team is playing without getting too fixated on points, goals and xG.
I’ll highlight a few teams in each quadrant of the chart above, but if you’re still trying to wrap your head around the added goals, don’t panic: we use a few other tools, too.
Better offense, better defense
Atlanta United has looked better in 2024, which has helped ease the pressure on the midfielder Thiago Almada to snap out of an early season slump (one goal, one assist in 540 minutes). Atlanta is averaging a touchdown for every 54.3 touches it makes this year, a much more efficient rate than last year’s 66.7.
Charlotte FC managed just one goal from groups, but the club’s xG per 100 groups increased from 2.7 (27th in MLS last year) to 4.6 (7th in 2024). Club throw accuracy is also increasing from 32.9% to 39.5%. However, this target rate is likely to come back down to earth slightly; 39.5% would have been a league best in 2023.
of Colorado Rapids underwent a dramatic offseason makeover with Chris Armas as manager, and are scoring twice as often as last year with similar volume and accuracy. They’re also seeing more consistent scoring so far (dropping 0.8 points per game from key positions, down from 1.4 a year ago). Their frontline press is forcing twice as many turnovers per game (5.0, up from 2.3) – which looks set to hold given Armas’ tactical approach.
The city of St is allowing opponents 1.7 fewer yards of ground clearance per possession and gaining 6% more rebounds than last season. Their effort to add width over the winter has also resulted in a 27% increase in open play crossover volume, which has helped boost their chance creation per game from 9.2 to a healthier 12.1.
However, not everything is going according to plan. Sam Adeniran has been the team’s best kicker in volume but is training alone as Carnell is “focusing on guys who bring a certain standard, intensity, work ethic to training”. still, Thomas Totland AND Chris Durkin have helped to raise as was foreseen when they signedleaving an opening for other attackers to catch Adeniran’s stall.
Better offense, worse defense
We call this area “pure fun”.
of Philadelphia Union has realized that being sharper in possession naturally gives opponents more time on the ball. The club’s pitch has dropped 3.5% to 44.7% (24th in the league), while they hope to play more in transition by increasing the percentage of long passes by 4%.
LA Galaxy the newcomers Joseph Paintsil AND Gabriel Pec have helped the club make more direct attacks per game, and its shooting xG has risen from .104 to .135, respectively. The flip side to playing more on the counter: opponents are taking 3 more shots a game than they did in 2023 and their 12 goals conceded is fourth most in the West.
GO DEEPER
How Joseph Paintsil has turned the LA Galaxy into MLS
Los Angeles FCHis offensive line is less effective at winning the ball down the field than it was in 2023, with the offense’s third possession wins at 5.1 per game in 2024 from 7.2 a year ago. LAFC is working on playing with a more committed defensive line, but the extra space behind the backline has seen opponents take 13.1 shots per game after being limited to 10.6 last year.
CF Montreal has traded shot volume for quality chances under new coach Laurent Courtois: 29.2% of those chances qualify as “big chances,” the highest rate in MLS.
(Big chances are defined, somewhat subjectively, as any situation where a player should reasonably be expected to score. Examples include a challenge on the goalkeeper, a pressure-free effort from close range with a clear path to goal, or a free kick.)
Opponents are finding it too easy to pass in the attacking third, though: Montreal’s 35% field goal percentage is second-worst in the league, while they face 16.6 shots per game. At the very least, they make for great neutral viewing.
of Seattle Sounders‘ are shown in the chart to have a large boost in attacking g+, which may be surprising to many. Brian Schmetzer’s team passed five goals Montreal two games ago but have scored just four times in the other six (ENDED) games. They are creating chances – 10.5 per game, 6th best in MLS – but not the ones that should end up juicy, with their big chance rate going from 17.7% to 13.3% (eighth worst ). Breaking down the player contributions shows a lot of healthy growth contributions, but far less shots or the end product creating chances compared to St. Louis above.
The good news for Sounders fans is that the team is trending better – after a brutal 0% chance rate in their first three games, this has risen to 22% in their last four. Return of designated player Pedro de la Vega it can be vital.
Worse offense, better defense
Interestingly, all three teams in this bracket are competing for the top four spots in their conferences.
of New York Red Bulls are not as interdependent as they were last year, dropping from 16.1 crosses per game to 11.6. Instead, their progress down the field has been more methodical – advancing 1.14 meters per second of possession, well below last year’s rate of 1.64. An increase in big chances and Lewis MorganThe rebounding has kept the goals coming.
FC Cincinnati it’s a textbook case of what happens when you don’t replace a top-level centre-forward. with Brandon Vazquez sold to CF Monterrey over the winter, FCC’s average shooting distance decreased from 16.3 to 18.1 and his shot rate from outside the box increased from 33.7% (very good) to 44.1% (very bad). However, they have been even more difficult to break down defensively, allowing opponents just 7.3 chances created per game.
Houston Dynamo played without certain players Hector Herrera (knee) and Sebastian Ferreira (lower body) all year, and it’s generally difficult to attack without your primary chance creator and potential scoring threat. Manager Ben Olsen has them playing for headers (24% of all shots, third-most in the league), but the real modification has come in possession. Houston has the league’s second-highest rate of nine-plus pass sequences (13.3%, behind Galaxy Puig) as well as its slowest direct speed (1.07 meters per second). In short, this is smart, fundamental football.
Worse offense, worse defense
You don’t need me to tell you that’s not where you want to end up.
I already did a freelance Austin FC in this week’s MLS Takeawaysso I’ll just give the condensed summary: putting them in the matrix is equal darker than Miami’s at the time of Phil Neville’s sacking last summer, when his side were bottom of the East.
Speaking of Neville, his early weeks with Portland Timbers have seen the team become comeback specialists. They’ve seen some luck in the game: their opponents have the second-highest shot conversion rate in the league (17.8%) despite average shot distance. The Timbers are allowing the third-most friendly xG/shot (0.144), ultimately resulting in the third-worst xGA per game (1.9). However, they have got some good results in the new season; this looks more like a team still adjusting to a new boss than a team in crisis.
Nashville SC is off to a rough start after years of relying on a staunch defense and Hany Mukhtar. They are allowing 2.1 more shots per game, 1.6 more on goal and a 73% increase in expected goals conceded per game (1.1 to 1.9). The backline looks overworked, and a look at their defensive actions by zone compared to the league standard matches the eye test.
Nashville’s offense is also tough; chance creation has dropped from 8.3 per 90 (slightly below league average) to 5.6 (close to Austin’s poor levels). Most troubling, last summer’s big buyout (Sam Surridge) has 2 goals in 352 minutes.
It may be a surprise to see The crew of Columbus scrolling to the lower left, but context is vital. They shoot fewer shots per game (15.2 to 12.6) and create fewer chances (11.8 to 10.1), but that’s to be expected when your most important striker (Cucho Hernández) is in and out of formation. They are also through to the semi-finals of the CONCACAF Champions Cup, which has forced Wilfried Nancy to rotate his squad a lot in the opening weeks. The defending champions will be fine.
Improvement in some places, static in others
DC United is the third with a great chance percentage of 27.9%, holding Christian Benteke well fed in dangerous places. There is a certain naivety in their approach at the end of the game, having already fallen 10 points from the top positions. However, they seem to have taken a big step in the right direction.
The real Salt Lake is among the league’s youngest teams and the club is embracing moments of transition with 3.9 direct attacks per game – second highest in MLS. The club is also limiting the quality of opponents’ shots – no team has a sharper xG per shot than 0.074.
Minnesota United is one of the league’s most revamped teams in 2024, with Khaled El-Ahmad and Eric Ramsay installing a more proactive approach. The Loons’ defense has benefited from the change to a 4-3-3 formation, no longer using a dedicated number 10 that contributes little to the press. They’re getting more rebounds (up from 5.2 per game to a third-best 6.6) and have a more favorable field goal slant (47.9% to 56%) and are allowing relatively low-quality shots to opponents (0.097 xG for) despite inviting a lot. of them (14.6 facing per game).
In closing, I present this in lieu of a full section written over FC Dallas.
It’s very, very hard to score when you’re ahead on the scoreboard only 1% of the time. (or 7%, in the case of New England).
(Feature photo: Rick Ulreich/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
