Who gets NHL’s next big contract? Top candidates right now

Contract negotiations are a delicate thing. Some NHL players prefer tuning them out all together during the season. Others might want the process wrapped up quickly — but fairly — and listen in on every detail year round.

The key is not to let those conversations be a distraction to what is actually being achieved on the ice.

Just ask Alexis Lafreniere.

He’s the latest player to sign a long-term extension, inking a seven-year, $52.15 million pact with the New York Rangers last week on the heels of a breakout 2023-24 campaign where the 23-year-old tallied 28 goals and 57 points in 82 games. If Lafreniere continues that sort of growth his big deal will be a sweet steal for the Rangers.

Now that Lafreniere is locked in long term, who might be next to secure the proverbial bag?

There’s already speculation around what the likes of Connor McDavid, Cale Makar and Kirill Kaprizov could receive on a fresh extension, which they’re all eligible to sign beginning next July.

After conversations with league insiders, here is a sample of players — from the obvious to perhaps more obscure — that are poised to (possibly) get paid sooner rather than later. And with the NHL salary cap expected to keep climbing upwards from its current $88 million, there’s (potentially) even more money to spare when those contracts are doled out.

The superstars

It was a gasp heard ’round the hockey world when ESPN’s Kevin Weekes reported earlier this month that Rangers goaltender Igor Shesterkin had turned down an eight-year, $88 million extension — which would have made Shesterkin the highest-paid goalie in NHL history.

Make no mistake: Shesterkin will be paid handsomely at some point — in New York or somewhere else if the pending unrestricted free agent so chooses. And that deal will recalibrate the market for goaltenders going forward.

“My guess is Shesterkin will get upwards of $11.5 [million] per,” one agent said. “He’s not going to settle for a lower number just because. I think the [Jeremy] Swayman situation proved that’s no longer [a norm].”

Fair enough. Plus, Shesterkin has come a long way over the course of his current four-year, $22.67 million deal. He won a Vezina Trophy as the league’s top goaltender following the 2021-22 season, and finished third that year in Hart Trophy voting for league MVP. He’s perennially one of the NHL’s top netminders and this season is no different; Shesterkin is 4-1-1, with a .926 save percentage and 2.16 goals-against average, both of which ratios are top five in the NHL.

Shesterkin’s position as New York’s backbone makes his next contract the massive move worth watching for next — and who knows? There could be more drama on the way there before pens hit paper.

Speaking of dramatics, there’s been no shortage of those surrounding Mitch Marner. The Toronto Maple Leafs winger has declined to comment publicly on extension talks, but they are happening behind closed doors. Marner’s current mark of $10.9 million per year seems likely to rise, and he has two teammates as points of comparison in talks: Auston Matthews’ $13.5 million per year salary and William Nylander’s $11.5 million. Marner falls somewhere in the middle.

His camp has taken a “wait and see” approach with the Leafs thus far, testing the waters from training camp into the new season and watching how that played out. Marner’s had a solid start to the campaign with one goal and 10 points in nine games, giving him the team lead in scoring. With that in mind, it would behoove the Leafs to get Marner’s deal done now before any asking price starts to rise.

On the other hand, it’s the postseason where Toronto has most wanted to see Marner at his best — and where the winger has repeatedly faltered at being a certifiable difference-maker.

“It wouldn’t surprise me at all if Marner gets to the summer without an extension,” another agent said. “It also wouldn’t shock me if Marner was the next guy signed [to a big contract]. He’s a dominant player. But how does [GM Brad Treliving] see that team’s core now and going forward? It all factors in.”

One marquee player who might not be satisfied quickly (or easily) by his current club? Mikko Rantanen. The Colorado Avalanche’s top-line winger appears to have stalled out in conversations with the Avs about extending beyond his current deal worth $9.25 million per season. Rantanen has teammate Nathan MacKinnon’s eight-year, $100.8 million contract as a comparison tool, and that’s not necessarily the range Colorado sees Rantanen landing in — even if Rantanen does.

Expect Rantanen to use a hot 2024-25 campaign — in which he’s now tied for third in league scoring with four goals and 13 points — to showcase why he’s worth a MacKinnon-like payday when the time comes to close a deal, in Colorado or somewhere else.

The core set

It’s not like typically tight-lipped New York Islanders GM Lou Lamoriello is going to tip his hand about Brock Nelson’s future with the team. But, Nelson is a pending UFA and despite some rampant speculation the Islanders could move him at the trade deadline, there’s a strong case to be made for paying the man to stay long-term.

Nelson’s career has been on the rise for most of the past three seasons, over which he’s led New York with 111 goals and 209 points in 244 games (that’s with three consecutive 30-plus goal outings). Frankly, the 33-year-old has been showing up for a roster that’s consistently short on scoring, and the fact he’s getting better year over year makes extending him past this six-year, $36 million contract smart business for Lamoriello. Foundational pieces like Nelson are hard to come by.

It’s a similar situation with Vancouver forward Brock Boeser. Despite an up-and-down run with the Canucks to date that included last season’s disappointing finish to the postseason due to a blood-clotting issue, there’s no denying Boeser’s position as a steady force in Vancouver’s offense. The 27-year-old had the best regular season of his career in 2023-24, pacing the Canucks with 40 goals and 73 points in 81 games — then added seven goals and 12 points in 12 postseason tilts before being sidelined. Those numbers — coupled with a point-per-game start to this season — should net Boeser a hefty increase on his current three-year, $19.95 million deal.

It may take a while for the Canucks to sort through their cap situation and find a middle ground with Boeser. And given how well he’s playing, Boeser might not mind waiting, either.

Another core player that seems like a no-brainer for a long-term deal is Florida Panthers center Sam Bennett. Talks are ongoing between the Panthers and their pending UFA, and that’s a great thing for both parties. Florida already sealed the (long-term) deal with Carter Verhaeghe this month, and taking care of Bennett is GM Bill Zito’s next priority.

Bennett has eclipsed the 40-point mark in his last three seasons with Florida and gathered 20-plus goals in two of those outings, making him one of the Panthers’ most reliable pieces up front. He’s shown to be one of the league’s prominent power forwards — an increasingly rare breed — and Bennett also packed a punch for the Panthers in the playoffs, averaging nearly a point per game in both of their runs to the Stanley Cup Final, in 2023 and 2024.

Bennett is wrapping up a contract worth $4.425 million this season, and while he should expect a raise of some sort, the opportunity to keep winning in Florida might be all the juice Bennett needs to get a more team-friendly deal closed and keep the good times rolling.

The rising stars

It’s simpler, in some cases, to peg where established players (like those above) might land in terms of their next significant contracts. For the ones still putting down roots in the league? Trickier!

Take the Boston Bruins’ Morgan Geekie. He had a standout season in 2023-24, with career-high totals in goals (17) and points (39) through 76 games. Geekie entered training camp this fall with elevated expectations and top-six potential. Boston’s uncharacteristically slow start to the campaign has seemed to put the entire team — including Geekie — in a haze, and the 26-year-old has just one assist in his first eight games.

What does it all mean in the grand scheme for Boston’s pending RFA? Plenty. The Bruins have seen Patrice Bergeron and David Krejci retire in recent years, and it’s guys like Geekie who can replace them into the future. That’s not to say Geekie will be overpaid immediately, but it’s in Boston’s best interest to give Geekie a solid deal that solidifies his place as a premier part of their future. Doing so before summer could be a boost for Geekie’s confidence.

The Dallas Stars have a comparably important player in Wyatt Johnston, who’s also set to be a restricted free agent — and who they would be wise to take care of in short order. Johnston has face-of-the-franchise potential after the last two seasons, during which time he produced 56 goals and 106 points. Johnston is also just 21 years old; given he’s already become a cornerstone of the Stars’ offense, that’s going to cost them on a new deal.

Offering Johnston a long-term deal at around the same $8-$8.5 million a year salary that Dallas has doled out to teammates Roope Hintz and Miro Heiskanen should be enough to keep everyone happy. Johnston has been with Dallas on consecutive trips to the Western Conference finals, and the opportunity to stay in a winning fold is hard to turn down.