Why Bucs should be optimistic, concerned ahead of difficult slate

TAMPA, Fla. — The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are in the thick of arguably their most daunting stretch of the season, with three divisional games in four weeks — including at the New Orleans Saints on Sunday — plus two “Monday Night Football” appearances against the Baltimore Ravens in Week 7 and at the Kansas City Chiefs in Week 9 and the San Francisco 49ers in Week 10.

With the Saints (2-3) losing to the Chiefs on Monday night, it’s just the Bucs (3-2) and Atlanta Falcons (3-2) sitting atop the NFC South for the time being — with the Falcons trying to move to 3-0 in the division as the Carolina Panthers (1-4) come to town Sunday.

The Bucs are looking to get their first conference win Sunday (1 p.m. ET, Fox) against the Saints and keep pace with the Falcons.

Here’s a look at how they’ve done so far this season — the biggest reasons for optimism, the biggest reasons for concern and what to watch for:

Reasons for optimism

Quarterback Baker Mayfield is off to the best start of his career. He leads the league with 13 all-purpose touchdowns (11 passing, two rushing) and has thrown just two interceptions.

Things have gone exceptionally well with new offensive coordinator Liam Coen. Look at how wide open wide receiver Mike Evans was on that 2-yard touchdown against the Falcons. Should he have had more answers on that final possession of regulation that would have sealed the game? Yes. But to be fair, a facemask was missed that would have offset center Graham Barton’s holding call that instead set them back to a first-and-20. And ideally, 30 points should be enough to win a game.

Evans is currently tied with Cincinnati Bengals wide receiver Ja’Marr Chase for a league-leading five touchdowns, with teammate Chris Godwin ranked sixth with three. Godwin also has 225 receiving yards after the catch — behind only Chase for the most in the league. His 25 first downs are also second-most behind Nico Collins, and his usage in the screen game has been effective in moving the chains but also spreading teams out horizontally.

Defensive lineman Logan Hall’s emergence has quietly been one of the best storylines this season. He’s currently leading the team with three sacks this season, and they’ve come in the last two weeks, while also accounting for six quarterback hits, a pass breakup and a fumble recovery.

And while cornerback Zyon McCollum, in his first year as a full-time starter, did miss a tackle on the Falcons’ game-winning touchdown and had a shaky opening drive against the Broncos, he’s put together a strong start to the season. His eight pass breakups are tied for second most in the league with New Orleans’ Paulson Adebo.

Biggest concerns

With Hurricane Milton approaching, the Bucs evacuated to New Orleans on Tuesday morning and are practicing at Tulane’s stadium.

The team may be in Louisiana, but the players’ thoughts were back in Florida as the hurricane made landfall late Wednesday.

“We’re not even just playing for just football now,” Evans said. “We’re trying to play for something a little bit bigger.”

The last time the team evacuated for a major hurricane was in 2022 when they went to Miami before Hurricane Ian. The Bucs returned home and lost to the Chiefs 41-31, and Coach Todd Bowles noted on his radio show that week, “I don’t think we prepared as well as we should have or as well as some people could have.”

However, several players did have family with them at the team hotel when Hurricane Helene struck and they defeated the Philadelphia Eagles, 33-16, in Week 4. If you go back to 2017, it’s difficult to gauge the impact Hurricane Irma had on the team, which forced them to relocate to Charlotte prior to the storm. The game against the Dolphins was postponed in Week 1 that season, but when they resumed play on Sept. 17, they defeated the Chicago Bears 29-7, a team that would go 5-11.

Strictly football speaking — aside from some poor tackling in Weeks 3 and 5, health has been their biggest obstacle up until this point with 14 players on their injury report last week alone. Mayfield had a two-week span where he was pummeled by the Detroit Lions and Denver Broncos for 12 sacks. Starting right tackle Luke Goedeke was out with a concussion, and he remains in the concussion protocol.

The Bucs also couldn’t get any pressure on Broncos quarterback Bo Nix, and the middle of the field was completely there for the taking in Week 5 as Kirk Cousins amassed over 500 passing yards. The absence of defensive tackle Calijah Kancey (calf injury) and All-Pro safety Antoine Winfield Jr. (foot) probably played a part in that, and inside linebacker SirVocea Dennis will head to injured reserve with a shoulder injury. Kancey was a full participant in practice Wednesday, Winfield practiced but was limited.

This rash of injuries did allow the Bucs to call up veteran Sterling Shepard from the practice squad, and he’s had some strong performances the last two weeks with Jalen McMillan (hamstring) and Trey Palmer (concussion) out. But a 10-day rest period could do a lot of good in this department as the focus shifts to an incredibly important road game at New Orleans.

A closer look at the Saints

With Goedeke’s status still unknown, the Bucs have been able to keep Mayfield relatively clean the last two weeks, surrendering two sacks to Philadelphia and one to the Falcons. However, the Eagles and Falcons have a combined six sacks on the season so far, whereas the Saints have already accumulated 14, and the majority of them have come not from blitzing, but often from twists and stunts. The Saints are also doing a bit more disguising of their coverages this year — designed to freeze the quarterback in the pocket — but Mayfield’s done relatively well in that department.

New Orleans has statistically the best red zone defense in the league — surrendering just 25% of opponents’ trips to the red zone for points. What’s particularly noticeable is that the team has done this with impact-playmaking, to the tune of two interceptions, four sacks and a forced fumble in the red zone. The Saints also have seven interceptions on the season so far with two coming from Tyrann Mathieu and two from, who also already has five pass breakups.

“[It’s] just an aggressive team,” Mayfield said. “They have some of their key leaders that are always down there, aggressive and physical down there in tight spots. [They have] guys that understand concepts. They’re able to react and close some of these windows with the pass game quickly, or just [be] physical up front. … For us, it’s really, really about the details when it comes down to the red zone offense.”

On the other side of the ball, Saints quarterback Derek Carr left Monday’s Chiefs game with an oblique injury, and Wednesday, rookie quarterback Spencer Rattler was announced as the starter. The offensive line has also been without center Erik McCoy and his backup, Shane Lemieux, who have gone to injured reserve. Guard Cesar Ruiz also missed Monday night because of injury.