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The confetti has stopped falling, Michigan’s championship parade is over and the 2023 college football season is drifting into the rear-view mirror.
As usual, mid-January has become a time of reflection. What did we—both fans and media—predict would happen that actually came true? Where did we miss? Projections create narratives, and hindsight helps us shape how to remember those perceptions.
There are winners. There are losers.
And our season-ending task is assigning those labels to players and programs from the 2020 campaign.
The categories are subjective but focus on a range of topics, largely revolving around preseason expectations.
Returning a veteran quarterback does not guarantee success, but experience told an undeniable story in 2023.
Jayden Daniels, a fifth-year senior, won the Heisman Trophy. Sixth-year quarterback Michael Penix Jr. finished as the award’s runner-up, and fifth-year star Bo Nix ended in third. For good measure, sixth-year standout Jordan Travis checked in fifth.
Daniels posted the worst record of the bunch, leading LSU to nine victories within the team’s 10-3 record. Penix guided Washington to a Pac-12 title, a trip to the national championship and a 14-1 mark. Nix went 12-2 as Oregon narrowly missed a CFP bid—strictly because of Penix and Washington. Travis led Florida State to 10 straight wins before his season-ending leg injury in November.
Daniels, Penix and Nix swept the AP All-America honors.
In short: While the best teams didn’t necessarily have a veteran starter, the nation’s top quarterbacks all held that distinction.
Let’s be very clear: Neither player, individually, had a major letdown of a year. There’s no doubt they’re both disappointed, though.
USC’s Caleb Williams and North Carolina’s Drake Maye entered the 2023 campaign viewed as the best NFL draft-eligible quarterbacks in the country. They’re heading into the pre-draft process the same way, too.
The fall, however, didn’t bring the results hoped.
Each program ripped off a 6-0 start, climbing the AP Top 25 as high as fifth (USC) and 10th (UNC). At that point, the Williams-led Trojans and Maye-fueled Tar Heels stood as legitimate CFP threats.
And then, disaster.
Williams struggled at times, sure, but USC’s atrocious defense collapsed down the stretch. North Carolina endured a similar fate, and both teams plummeted to an 8-5 finish with five losses in the last seven contests.
Michigan returned a strong majority of its contributors from the 2022 roster, one that secured the team’s second consecutive Big Ten crown. In the preseason AP Top 25, the Wolverines checked in No. 2.
Florida State also brought back a veteran group, along with a star-studded cast of transfers to bolster the roster. Mike Norvell’s squad opened the campaign ranked No. 8.
Expectations: High.
Expectations: Met.
Michigan beat Ohio State again and celebrated its first national title since a shared 1997 championship. Florida State hoisted the ACC trophy with a 13-0 record and logically should have been included in the College Football Playoff as an unbeaten power-conference winner.
Look no further than USC (sixth in the AP preseason poll) for returning production not leading to immense success, but continuity spurred great seasons for both Michigan and FSU.
As always, we—the media at large—are destined to miss badly on some programs. In hindsight, it’s clear that Missouri is the biggest whiff of the 2023 campaign.
Consider that an understandable blunder.
Missouri posted a 6-6 record in 2019, the final year of Barry Odom’s tenure. The school hired Eli Drinkwitz, who oversaw a 5-5 mark in the shortened 2020 season and consecutive 6-7 records in 2021 and 2022.
Given that Mizzou had dropped nine of its 11 games against Top 25 foes under Drinkwitz, the Tigers didn’t have the look of a breakout team. They didn’t land a single vote in the preseason AP poll, and SEC media predicted Missouri would finish sixth in the SEC East.
That, uh—that was not correct.
Missouri picked up a ranked win in each month of the regular season. After a dramatic early victory over No. 15 Kansas State, the Tigers toppled No. 24 Kentucky on the road in October and hammered No. 14 Tennessee in November. They capped an 11-2 season with a triumph over No. 7 Ohio State in the Cotton Bowl.
If someone asked you to name the only two programs this season to successfully defend a conference title, would you have come up with Troy in addition to Michigan?
Head coach Jon Sumrall sparked the Trojans in his 2022 debut, leading them to a 12-2 record and Sun Belt crown.
The encore was arguably even better.
Troy, on paper, notched a lesser 11-3 mark. However, running back Kimani Vidal became the program’s first AP All-American since 2000, and the defense piled up the fifth-most tackles for loss in the country. Longtime quarterback Gunnar Watson had a career-best season, and Troy’s success led to Sumrall accepting the Tulane job.
Sure, there’s a James Madison-sized asterisk. NCAA transition rules prevented the team—which, by record, won the Sun Belt’s East Division again—from playing in the league championship game. JMU, on the road, defeated Troy in September.
But that doesn’t change the history books; Troy sharing an honor with the national champions is pretty darn good.
Winning is hard.
Look, I understand the fatigue that followed Alabama, Clemson and Georgia in recent years. It’s not much different than the NFL’s New England Patriots in the Tom Brady era or the NBA’s Golden State Warriors. Seeing the same organizations win over and over can be tiring.
That’s exactly why TCU’s journey to the 2022 national championship was so special. Although that game ended in dreadful fashion, the Horned Frogs put together a storybook-type season.
Winning is hard. Sustaining that success is what separates the best programs from, well, everyone else.
Big 12 media had modest expectations, picking TCU to finish fifth in the conference. Unfortunately for the Horned Frogs, they dropped even farther with a 3-6 mark in the league and 5-7 overall.
TCU joined 2010 Texas and 2020 LSU as recent teams to appear in a national title and not play a bowl in the following season.
Stability at quarterback is often a major part of a team’s success, but 2023 put that notion to the test.
In the MAC, Miami saw veteran Brett Gabbert’s season ended with a leg injury in October. Aveon Smith stepped in and guided the RedHawks to an 11-2 record. They defeated Toledo—the opponent that unfortunately halted Gabbert’s year—to win the MAC title.
Florida State lost Jordan Travis to his injury in November. Tate Rodemaker and Brock Glenn both started late-season wins, including the ACC Championship Game victory over Louisville.
SMU standout Preston Stone exited the regular-season finale with a leg injury. Still, the Mustangs—who are headed to the ACC—exited the AAC as conference champions thanks to redshirt freshman Kevin Jennings leading SMU past Tulane in his first career start.
And that’s not all.
Big 12 champs Texas started Maalik Murphy two games for Quinn Ewers. Alabama briefly sat Jalen Milroe, who ended up propelling a charge to the SEC crown. Mountain West winner Boise State reduced Taylen Green’s role but went back to him after Maddux Madsen’s injury.
While no path to a conference title is the same, 2023 featured some particularly adventurous journeys at QB.
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