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Eric Moody, ESPN
We’re about a quarter of the way through the WNBA season, and as always, there’s a lot going on around the league.
So who are the players trending up? Are there any future bets worth making? And what injuries could affect fantasy women’s basketball?
Let’s take a closer look at the league to get the latest fairy tales and betting on all 12 teams.
The Dream don’t have many reliable fantasy options outside of Rhyne Howard, Tina Charles, Allisha Gray, and Cheyenne Parker-Tyus. However, managers in need of a streaming device shouldn’t ignore the Air Force (listed in 12.3% of ESPN leagues). She has played 20 or more minutes in three of her past four games and scored 18 or more fantasy points in three of them.
Angel Reese is the fourth Sky rookie to record multiple double-doubles, joining Imani McGee-Stafford (2 in 2016), Candice Dupree (2 in 2006) and Sylvia Fowles (6 in 2008). Reese has also been very consistent in fantasy, scoring 22 or more points in seven of eight games. Bettors shouldn’t ignore Reese (+1100) in the Rookie of the Year race (more on that below).
The Suns entered Tuesday night’s game against the Washington Mystics as double-digit favorites, despite a 3-5 record against the spread. It’s also worth noting that Connecticut has failed to cover in five of its past eight games as a double-digit favorite. However, Al-Shams won the match by 17 points. This could be a turning point for Connecticut and widespread bettors, especially given their easy remaining schedule, which is based on the combined winning percentage of their opponents. Connecticut ranks fourth in offensive rating and first in defensive rating.
Should we take Arike Ogunbowale (+4000) seriously as an MVP candidate? definitely. Ogunbowale ranks second in the league with 27.1 PPG behind A’ja Wilson (27.9). Furthermore, she averaged 4.6 RPG, 5.1 APG, and 3.0 SPG. The last true point guard to win the MVP award was Diana Taurasi in 2009. Taurasi averaged 20.4 PPG, 5.7 RPG, 3.5 APG, 1.2 SPG and 1.4 BPG that season. With numbers like Ogunbowale’s, she clearly makes a strong case for herself.
The Fever (2-9) are struggling, ranking near the bottom of the league in both offensive rating and defensive rating. Indiana State suffered two losses by 30 or more points, while the rest of the league only had one loss (Washington Mystics). Interestingly, Al-Hima will face the Sufis on Friday. There are better days ahead for a young and talented Indiana team, and bettors should consider backing the Fever (-115) to win more than 12.5 games in the regular season.
The Aces find themselves with a 5-2 record and rank fourth in net rating (measures the difference between points scored and points allowed per 100 possessions, which indicates a team’s overall performance). The Aces (+185) along with the New York Liberty have the highest odds of winning the tournament. However, there is one trend that Las Vegas needs to fix quickly; The Aces don’t have a ton of depth and it doesn’t help that Chelsea Gray is still out with a leg injury. Surprisingly, Las Vegas ranked seventh in net rating in the fourth quarter. Aja Wilson (33.0), Kelsey Bloom (36.9), Jackie Young (36.3) and Alisha Clark (32.0) are averaging more than 32 minutes per game this season. Something bettors should be aware of as the season progresses.
There are a lot of promising rookies around the WNBA this season, but realistically the Rookie of the Year race is between Indiana’s Kaitlin Clark (-650), Los Angeles’ Cameron Brink (+650) and Chicago’s Angel Reyes (+1,100). Reese’s defense and rebounding have kept her in the ROY conversation, and she’s made a big jump from +2500 odds at the start of the season. However, her lack of scoring (10.9 PPG) and inefficiency on the field (33.8% FG) could take her out of the running as a legitimate contender.
Brink, whose odds jumped from +1000 at the start of the season, contributes in multiple statistical categories on a per-game basis. If she improves her scoring average (8.0 PPG) and reduces her turnover rate (2.4 TPG), she could become a force to be reckoned with in this race.
The Lynx (7-2) have been really impressive this season. Head coach Cheryl Reeve has done an excellent job building a roster around Naphesa Collier via free agency, especially since recent first-round picks like Diamond Miller and Alissa Pili have yet to have an active role in Minnesota’s rotation. Despite playing a tough schedule early in the season, the Lynx have excelled. Minnesota is a solid team to bet on to win the Commissioner’s Trophy, ranking third in offensive rating and defensive rating.
Tuesday’s game against Chicago marked the 10th time Brianna Stewart and Sabrina Ionescu combined for 50 or more points in a game as teammates and the first time this season. The Liberty is 9-1 in games in which Stewart and Ionescu have combined for 50 or more points. This is something to keep in mind when looking at prop and money bets in New York, depending on the opponent.
The Mercury currently have a 4-6 record, which puts them under .500 through 10 games for the third straight season. This is notable because Mercury has only had this happen twice in the previous ten seasons. Also, Phoenix struggled on the road with a 1-5 record. Finally, it’s worth noting that the Mercury are 8-18 against the spread in their last 26 road games – something to consider from a betting perspective.
The Storm are in the midst of a five-game winning streak, their longest since June 2021. Seattle already leads the league in net rating during that time frame. The team appears to have enjoyed new additions Skylar Diggins-Smith and Nneka Ogwumike. This is the main reason they have risen seven places in our power rankings to fourth place. The Storm (-105) also have a very favorable schedule for the rest of the season, making now a great time to bet on them going over 23.5 wins.
The Mystics (0-9) are the only team in the league yet to win a game. While Washington isn’t exactly a fantasy goldmine, those who have Shakira Austin on their teams should consider adding No. 6 overall pick Aaliyah Edwards (51.9%). She stepped up when Austin took days off, scoring 27 or more fantasy points in two of the three games Austin has missed this season.
