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Through five weeks, over 98% of entrants in ESPN Eliminator Challenge have already been knocked out. Last week, nearly half of the remaining entries fell as once again, the two biggest favorites of the week both lost outright.
Underdogs of at least a touchdown are now an unprecedented 7-2 this season. Underdogs of at least five points also have a winning record at 13-12 outright. So the typical Eliminator strategy of taking the teams with the best chance to win on paper has failed miserably thus far.
Historically, this is an outlier. This is the first time in the Super Bowl era that underdogs of at least five points and seven points have won even 40% of their games through Week 5, much less have winning records.
Five teams are favored by at least five points this week, with two favored by at least a touchdown. Eventually, those teams should start winning at a higher rate.
One solution could be to attack the NFL’s true bottom feeders. The Carolina Panthers, New England Patriots, Miami Dolphins and Cleveland Browns are the four worst teams in the NFL according to ESPN Analytics. Fading those teams should be the best plan to survive Week 6.
Click here to download Mike Clay’s Eliminator Cheat Sheet, updated weekly. Odds current as of publish time, courtesy of ESPN BET
1. Philadelphia Eagles vs Cleveland Browns
The Eagles check every box this week. They are the biggest favorites this week according to both the betting market and ESPN Analytics. They are coming off a bye, so they have extra time to prepare for a Browns offense that ranks 30th in EPA per play. Meanwhile, the Eagles could get both A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith back, which should be a major boost offensively.
Cleveland is 4-8 on the road over the last two seasons including the playoffs, allowing 29.1 points per game and scoring fewer than 20 points in five straight games. The Eagles will host the Panthers in Week 14, so there is value in saving them for later in larger groups, but with so many eliminations so far this season, many groups likely won’t even make it that far.
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ESPN BET odds: Eagles -8.5 (-425 moneyline)
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ESPN Analytics: 70% chance to win
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Mike Clay: 75% chance to win
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Eliminator Challenge: 5% selected
2. Houston Texans at New England Patriots
The Patriots are one of two teams that rank in the bottom 10 in EPA per play on both offense and defense, so they are a clear target to bet against in Eliminator this season. While Drake Maye could be an improvement over Jacoby Brissett, he should be under pressure all game. The Patriots rank last in the NFL in pass block win rate this season, while the Texans are fourth in pass rush win rate.
This is the Texans’ largest favorite role all season according to Mike Clay, and his model makes them the biggest favorites all week. It’s also the largest favorite role in C.J. Stroud’s young career. Against the struggling Patriots, expect the Texans to emerge with the win.
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ESPN BET odds: Texans -7 (-320 moneyline)
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ESPN Analytics: 69% chance to win
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Mike Clay: 80% chance to win
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Eliminator Challenge: 36% selected
3. Atlanta Falcons at Carolina Panthers
The Panthers are the only team in the bottom six in EPA per play both offensively and defensively. While the move to Andy Dalton gave the Panthers a brief boost offensively, they have taken major steps back in EPA per play in each of his starts.
On the other hand, the Falcons offense has taken big steps forward the last few weeks as Kirk Cousins gets further removed from his Achilles injury. Atlanta is the second-biggest favorite this week according to Mike Clay. Outside of their lone win against the Raiders, the Panthers have lost by double-digits in each of their other games.
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ESPN BET odds: Falcons -6 (-250 moneyline)
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ESPN Analytics: 62% chance to win
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Mike Clay: 76% chance to win
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Eliminator Challenge: 9% selected
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